Editing Division of Barker (section)

===2016 election===
South Australian Senator [[Nick Xenophon]] confirmed in December 2014 that by mid-2015 the [[Nick Xenophon Team]] (NXT) would announce candidates in all states and territories at the [[2016 Australian federal election|2016 election]], with Xenophon citing the government's ambiguity on the [[Collins-class submarine replacement project]] as motivation.<ref>{{cite news|last=Bourke|first=Latika|author-link=Latika Bourke|title=Subs backlash: Nick Xenophon sets sights on Liberal-held seats in Adelaide|url=http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/subs-backlash-nick-xenophon-sets-sights-on-liberalheld-seats-in-adelaide-20150405-1mez7u.html|access-date=2015-12-29|newspaper=The Sydney Morning Herald|publisher=Fairfax Media|date=2015-04-06|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150902201151/http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/subs-backlash-nick-xenophon-sets-sights-on-liberalheld-seats-in-adelaide-20150405-1mez7u.html|archive-date=2 September 2015}}</ref> [[Australian Broadcasting Corporation|ABC]] [[psephologist]] [[Antony Green]]'s 2016 federal election guide for South Australia stated NXT had a "strong chance of winning lower house seats and three or four Senate seats".<ref>[http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/preview-sa/ Election Guide (SA) - 2016 federal election guide: Antony Green ABC]</ref>

A [[Opinion polling for the Australian federal election, 2016#South Australia|ReachTEL seat-level opinion poll in the safe Liberal seat of Barker]] of 869 voters conducted by [[robocall]] on 20 June during the [[2016 Australian federal election|2016 election]] campaign surprisingly found NXT candidate James Stacey leading the Liberals' [[Tony Pasin]] 52–48 on the [[two-candidate preferred]] vote. [[Opinion polling for the Australian federal election, 2016#South Australia|Seat-level opinion polls in the other two rural Liberal South Australian seats]] revealed NXT also leading in both [[Division of Grey|Grey]] and [[Division of Mayo|Mayo]].<ref>[http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-could-lose-another-seat-to-independent-nick-xenophons-team/news-story/ce11710e8478383621a00218b1a91202 Election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull could lose another seat to independent Nick Xenophon’s team - Herald Sun 20 June 2016]</ref>

Election-night counting showed that Stacey was second to Pasin on first preferences, however the indicative two-candidate preferred count had been done between Pasin and Labor candidate Mat O'Brien, which meant there was no early indication of whether Stacey would receive enough preferences to beat Pasin before postal, absentee and provisional votes were counted and preferences distributed in the following two weeks.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-05/results-in-close-sa-seats-will-take-time-aec-says/7568978 |title=Election 2016: Results in close South Australian seats will take time, AEC says |date=5 July 2016 |access-date=5 July 2016 |publisher=[[Australian Broadcasting Corporation]]}}</ref> Ultimately, it was confirmed that Stacey had not only overtaken O'Brien on first preferences, but reduced Pasin's margin in Barker to 4.7 percent—thus making Barker a marginal seat for the first time since Cameron's near-defeat in the 1943 landslide.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-180.htm |title=Barker, SA - AEC Tally Room |access-date=2016-08-02 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160805050414/http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-180.htm |archive-date=2016-08-05 }}</ref>  However, Barker remains a comfortably safe Liberal seat in a "traditional" two-party matchup with Labor; Pasin only suffered a one-percent swing against Labor.