Editing Exit poll (section)

==Methods==

The distribution of votes is not even across different polling stations and also varies at different times of day. As a result, a single exit poll may give an imperfect picture of the national vote. Instead, some exit polls  calculate [[swing (politics)|swing]] and [[Voter turnout|turnout]]. Pollsters return to the same polling stations at the same times at each election, and by comparing the results with previous exit polls they can calculate how the distribution of votes has changed in that constituency. This swing is then applied to other similar constituencies, allowing an estimate of how national voting patterns have changed. The polling locations are chosen to cover the entire gamut of society and where possible, to include especially critical [[marginal seat]]s.<ref name="FT explanation">{{cite news|url=http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/57ce9e5a-271d-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html#axzz4B4x3xNyW|archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221211141257/https://www.ft.com/content/57ce9e5a-271d-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89#axzz4B4x3xNyW|archive-date=11 December 2022|url-access=subscription|url-status=live|title=The hedge funds' EU referendum exit polls are not to be trusted|author=Delphine Strauss|date=31 May 2016|access-date=9 June 2016|newspaper=Financial Times}}</ref><ref name="UK Polling Report">{{cite web|url=http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9697|title=Exit Polls on the EU Referendum|website=UK Polling Report|author=Anthony J Wells|date=1 June 2016|access-date=9 June 2016}}</ref><ref name="Warwick">{{cite web|url=http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/#faq7|title=Exit polling explained |website=Department of Statistics, University of Warwick|date=May 2010|access-date=10 June 2016|author=David Firth}}</ref> Data is presented in one of three ways, either as a [[table (information)|table]], graph or written interpretation.<ref name="exposur">{{cite book|url=https://play.google.com/store/books/details?id=u112AwAAQBAJ|title=Exit Polls: Surveying the American Electorate, 1972-2010|last=Best|first=Samuel J.|publisher=CQ Press|year=2012|isbn=9781452234403|page=1,2|author2=Brian S. Krueger|access-date=28 November 2016}}</ref>

The US exit polls have long been conducted by Edison Research for the [[National Election Pool]] of media organizations, interviewing a sample of voters as they leave a polling place. These pollsters choose precincts whose mix of voters is representative of the broader area. These voters may not be typical. For example, minority voters in a mixed precinct may vote at different rates and for different candidates than minority voters in a mostly minority precinct.<ref name="poynter">{{Cite news |last=Ahebee |first=Sojourner |date=2020-12-18 |title=Why race-specific voter turnout data is a challenge to collect |language=en-US |work=Poynter |url=https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2020/why-race-specific-voter-turnout-data-is-a-challenge-to-collect/ |access-date=2021-11-24}}</ref> The [[Associated Press]] since 2018 has switched to [[phone poll]]ing, which does not need to be grouped by precinct. They start calling a random sample of voters until they vote, to cover [[mailed ballot]]s, [[early voting]], and election-day voting.<ref name="poynter"/>