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Law of total variance
(section)
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=== Example 1 (Exam Scores) === Suppose five students take an exam scored 0–100. Let {{mvar|Y}} = student’s score and {{mvar|X}} indicate whether the student is *international* or *domestic*: {| class="wikitable" ! Student !! {{mvar|Y}} (Score) !! {{mvar|X}} |- | 1 || 20 || International |- | 2 || 30 || International |- | 3 || 100 || International |- | 4 || 40 || Domestic |- | 5 || 60 || Domestic |} * Mean and variance for international: <math>\operatorname{E}[Y\mid X=\text{Intl}] = 50,\; \operatorname{Var}(Y\mid X=\text{Intl}) \approx 1266.7.</math> * Mean and variance for domestic: <math>\operatorname{E}[Y\mid X=\text{Dom}] = 50,\; \operatorname{Var}(Y\mid X=\text{Dom}) = 100.</math> Both groups share the same mean (50), so the explained variance <math>\operatorname{Var}(\operatorname{E}[Y\mid X])</math> is 0, and the total variance equals the average of the within-group variances (weighted by group size), i.e. 800.
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