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Maunder Minimum
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==Little Ice Age== {{Main|Little Ice Age|Solar activity and climate}} [[File:Maunder Minimum and Little Ice Age.tif|thumb|upright=1.4|Comparison of group sunspot numbers (top), Central England Temperature (CET) observations (middle) and reconstructions and modeling of Northern Hemisphere Temperatures (NHT). The CET in red are summer averages (for June, July and August) and in blue winter averages (for December of previous year, January and February). NHT in grey is the distribution from basket of paleoclimate reconstructions (darker grey showing higher probability values) and in red are from model simulations that account for solar and volcanic variations. By way of comparison, on the same scales the anomaly for modern data (after 31 December 1999) for summer CET is +0.65 Β°C, for winter CET is +1.34 Β°C, and for NHT is +1.08 Β°C. Sunspot data are as in supplementary data to <ref>{{cite journal |author= Lockwood, M. | display-authors= etal | title= Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 2. Comparison with the geomagnetic data |journal=J. Geophys. Res. |volume= 119 |issue= 7 |pages= 5183β5192 |date=July 2014 |doi= 10.1002/2014JA019972 |bibcode = 2014JGRA..119.5183L | s2cid= 27502299 | url= http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/36855/1/309_OSF2_jgra51126.pdf |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/36855/1/309_OSF2_jgra51126.pdf |archive-date=2022-10-09 |url-status=live }} [http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JA019972/pdf PDF Copy]</ref> and Central England Temperature data are as published by the UK Met Office <ref>{{cite web |title= Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) dataset |url= http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/}}</ref> The NHT data are described in box TS.5, Figure 1 of the IPCC AR5 report of Working Group 1.<ref>{{cite web |title= Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis, WG1, 5th Assessment Report, IPCC |url= http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ }}</ref>]] The Maunder Minimum roughly coincided with the middle part of the [[Little Ice Age]], during which Europe and North America experienced colder than average temperatures. Whether there is a causal relationship, however, is still under evaluation.<ref>Plait, Phil, [http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/06/17/are-we-headed-for-a-new-ice-age/ Are we headed for a new ice age?] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150717155400/http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/06/17/are-we-headed-for-a-new-ice-age/ |date=2015-07-17 }}, ''Discover,'' June 17, 2011 (retrieved 16 July 2015)</ref> The current best hypothesis for the cause of the Little Ice Age is that it was the result of volcanic action.<ref name="miller2012">Miller ''et al''. 2012. "Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks" ''Geophysical Research Letters'' '''39''', 31 January; see [http://news.agu.org/press-release/unusual-volcanic-episode-rapidly-triggered-little-ice-age-researchers-find/ press release on AGU website] (retrieved 16 July 2015).</ref><ref name="scott">[https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm Was the Little Ice Age Triggered by Massive Volcanic Eruptions?] ''ScienceDaily'', 30 January 2012 (accessed 21 May 2012)</ref> The onset of the Little Ice Age also occurred well before the beginning of the Maunder Minimum,<ref name="miller2012" /> and northern-hemisphere temperatures during the Maunder Minimum were not significantly different from the previous 80 years,<ref>{{cite journal |author=Owens M.J.|display-authors=etal|title= The Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age: An update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations |journal=Space Weather and Space Climate |volume=7 |issue=A33 |pages= A33 |date= 2017 |doi= 10.1051/swsc/2017034 |bibcode=2017JSWSC...7A..33O|doi-access=free |hdl=20.500.11820/7c44295a-1578-4e1c-8579-452dc70430c6 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> suggesting a decline in solar activity was not the main causal driver of the Little Ice Age. The correlation between low sunspot activity and cold winters in England has been analyzed using the longest existing surface temperature record, the [[Central England Temperature]] record.<ref name="CET_PAPER">{{cite journal |author= Lockwood, M. |display-authors= etal |title= Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? |journal=Environmental Research Letters |volume=5 |issue=2 |pages= 024001 |date=February 2010 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001 |bibcode = 2010ERL.....5b4001L |doi-access=free }} [http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/2/024001/pdf/1748-9326_5_2_024001.pdf PDF Copy]</ref> A potential explanation of this has been offered by observations by NASA's [[Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment]], which suggest that solar [[ultraviolet light]] output is more variable over the course of the solar cycle than scientists had previously thought.<ref name="SORCE_PAPER">{{cite journal |author= Harder, J.A. |display-authors= etal |title= Trends in solar spectral irradiance variability in the visible and infrared |journal=Geophys. Res. Lett. |volume=36 |issue= 7 |pages= L07801 |date=April 2009 |doi=10.1029/2008GL036797 |bibcode=2009GeoRL..36.7801H|s2cid= 18196394 |doi-access= free }}</ref> A 2011 study found that low solar activity was linked to [[jet stream]] behavior, resulting in mild winters in some places ([[southern Europe]] and Canada/Greenland) and colder winters in others ([[northern Europe]] and the United States).<ref name="MODEL_PAPER">{{cite journal |author= Ineson, S. |display-authors= etal |title= Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere |journal=Nature Geoscience |volume=4 |issue= 11 |pages=753β757 |date=October 2011 |doi=10.1038/ngeo1282 |bibcode = 2011NatGe...4..753I |hdl= 10044/1/18859 |url= http://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/18859/2/Nature%20Geoscience_4_11_2011.pdf |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/http://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/18859/2/Nature%20Geoscience_4_11_2011.pdf |archive-date=2022-10-09 |url-status=live |hdl-access= free }}</ref> In Europe, examples of very cold winters are 1683β84, 1694β95, and the [[Great Frost of 1709|winter of 1708β09]].<ref>''[[Hezekiah Niles|Niles]]' Weekly Register'', Volume 15, Supplement, History of the Weather</ref>
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