Editing Pollinator decline (section)

== Consequences ==
Seven out of the ten most important crops in the world, in terms of volume, are pollinated by wind (maize, rice and wheat) or have vegetative propagation (banana, sugar cane, potato, beet, and cassava) and thus do not require animal pollinators for food production.<ref name=Novais2016>{{cite journal |last1=Novais |first1=Samuel M. A. |last2=Nunes |first2=Cássio A. |last3=Santos |first3=Natália B. |last4=D'Amico |first4=Ana R. |last5=Fernandes |first5=G. Wilson |last6=Quesada |first6=Maurício |last7=Braga |first7=Rodrigo F. |last8=Neves |first8=Ana Carolina O. |date=30 November 2016 |title=Effects of a Possible Pollinator Crisis on Food Crop Production in Brazil |journal=PLOS ONE |volume=13 |issue=5 |pages=e0167292 |doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0167292 |pmid=27902787 |pmc=5130262 |bibcode=2016PLoSO..1167292N |doi-access=free }}</ref> Additionally crops such as sugar beet, spinach and onions are [[Self-pollination|self-pollinating]] and do not require insects.<ref>{{cite report |author1=Christoph Künast |author2=Michael Riffel |author3=Robert de Graeff |author4=Gavin Whitmore |date=August 2013 |title=Pollinators and agriculture - Agricultural productivity and pollinator protection |url=https://www.boerenlandvogels.nl/sites/default/files/ECPA_Pollinators%20brochure_BaT2.pdf |publisher=European Landowners' Organization and the European Crop Protection Association |page=20 |access-date=9 September 2020}}</ref> Nonetheless, an estimated 87.5% of the world's flowering plant species are animal-pollinated,<ref name=Ollerton>{{cite journal |author1=Ollerton, J. |author2=Winfree, R. |author3=Tarrant, S. |year=2011 |title=How many flowering plants are pollinated by animals? |journal=Oikos |volume=120 |issue=3 |pages=321–326 |doi=10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18644.x|bibcode=2011Oikos.120..321O |citeseerx=10.1.1.464.6928 }}</ref> and 60% of crop plant species<ref>Roubik, D.W., 1995. "Pollination of Cultivated Plants in the Tropics". In: Agricultural Services Bulletin 118. Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. Pages 142–148</ref> use animal pollinators. This includes the majority of [[fruit]]s, many [[vegetable]]s, and also [[fodder]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.washcoll.edu/centers/ces/crfrs/natural-lands-project/pollinators/|title=Pollinators|website=Natural Lands Project|publisher=Washington College|access-date=2016-10-10|archive-date=2019-07-15|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190715052339/https://www.washcoll.edu/centers/ces/crfrs/natural-lands-project/pollinators/|url-status=dead}}</ref> According to the USDA 80% of insect crop pollination in the US is due to honey bees.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Berenbaum|first=May R.|date=2016 |chapter-url=https://esa.confex.com/esa/ice2016/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/94268 |language=en|publisher=Entomological Society of America|doi=10.1603/ICE.2016.94268|chapter=How it takes honey to make a honey bee — and pollen and nectar to make a pollinator|title=2016 International Congress of Entomology}}</ref>

A study which examined how fifteen plant species said to be dependent on animals for pollination would be impacted by pollinator decline, by excluding pollinators from them with domes, found that while most species do not suffer any impacts from decline in terms of reduced fertilization rates (seed set), three species did.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Lundgren |first1=Rebekka Laura |last2=Lázaro |first2=Amparo |last3=Totland |first3=Orjan |date=October 2013 |title=Experimental pollinator decline affects plant reproduction and is mediated by plant mating system |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261623079 |journal=Journal of Pollination Ecology  |volume=11 |issue=7 |pages=46–56 |doi=10.26786/1920-7603(2013)5 |access-date=10 September 2020|doi-access=free |hdl=10261/101893 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>

The expected direct reduction in total agricultural production in the US in the absence of animal pollination is expected to be 3 to 8%, with smaller impacts on agricultural production diversity.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Aizen |first1=Marcelo A. |last2=Garibaldi |first2=Lucas A. |last3=Cunningham |first3=Saul A. |last4=Klein |first4=Alexandra M. |date=June 2009 |title=How much does agriculture depend on pollinators? Lessons from long-term trends in crop production |journal=Annals of Botany |volume=103 |issue=9 |pages=1579–1588 |doi=10.1093/aob/mcp076 |pmid=19339297 |pmc=2701761 |doi-access=free }}</ref> Of all the possible consequences, the most important effect of pollinator decline for humans in Brazil, according to one 2016 study, would be the drop in income from high-value cash crops, and would impact the agricultural sector the most.<ref name=Novais2016/> A 2000 study about the economic effects of the [[honey bee]] on US food crops calculated that it helped to produce US$14.6 billion in monetary value.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.masterbeekeeper.org/pdf/pollination.pdf |title=The Value of Honey Bees As Pollinators of U.S. Crops in 2000 |author1=Roger Morse|author2=Nicholas Calderone|publisher=[[Cornell University]]|year=2000|access-date=2016-02-08 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140722231655/http://www.masterbeekeeper.org/pdf/pollination.pdf |archive-date=2014-07-22 |author1-link=Roger Morse }}</ref> In 2009 another study calculated the worldwide value of the 100 crops that need pollinators at €153 billion (not including production costs).<ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Gallai | first1 = N. | last2 = Salles | first2 = J. M. | last3 = Settele | first3 = J. | last4 = Vaissière | first4 = B. E. | year = 2009 | title = Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline | url = https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01293686/file/Gallai%20et%20al.%202009%20Ecological%20Economics%20Economic%20Valiuation%20of%20Poll.pdf| journal = Ecological Economics | volume = 68 | issue = 3| pages = 810–821 | doi=10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.06.014| bibcode = 2009EcoEc..68..810G | s2cid = 54818498 }}</ref> Despite the dire predictions, the theorised decline in pollinators has had no effect on food production, with yields of both animal-pollinated and non-animal-pollinated crops increasing at the same rate, over the period of supposed pollinator decline.<ref>{{cite magazine |last=Petherick |first=Anna |date=16 October 2008 |title=Agriculture unaffected by pollinator declines |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/news.2008.1175 |magazine=Nature |access-date=9 September 2020}}</ref>

=== Possible nutritional consequences ===
{{Main|Vitamin A deficiency}}

A 2015 study looked at the nutritional consequences of pollinator decline. It investigated if four [[third world]] populations might in the future potentially be at possible risk of malnutrition, assuming humans did not change their diet or have access to supplements, but concluded that this cannot be reliably predicted. According to their model, the size of the effect that pollinator decline had on a population depends on the local diet, and vitamin A is the most likely nutrient to become deficient, as it is already deficient.<ref name=":1">{{Cite journal|last1=Ellis|first1=Alicia M.|last2=Myers|first2=Samuel S.|last3=Ricketts|first3=Taylor H.|date=2015-01-09|title=Do Pollinators Contribute to Nutritional Health?|journal=PLOS ONE|language=en|volume=10|issue=1|pages=e114805|doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0114805|pmid=25575027|pmc=4289064|issn=1932-6203|bibcode=2015PLoSO..10k4805E|doi-access=free}}</ref>

More studies also identified vitamin A as the most pollinator-dependent nutrient.<ref name=":2">{{Cite journal|last1=Chaplin-Kramer|first1=Rebecca|last2=Dombeck|first2=Emily|last3=Gerber|first3=James|last4=Knuth|first4=Katherine A.|last5=Mueller|first5=Nathaniel D.|last6=Mueller|first6=Megan|last7=Ziv|first7=Guy|last8=Klein|first8=Alexandra-Maria|date=2014|title=Global malnutrition overlaps with pollinator-dependent micronutrient production|jstor=43601745|journal=Proceedings: Biological Sciences|volume=281|issue=1794|pages=20141799|doi=10.1098/rspb.2014.1799|pmid=25232140|pmc=4211458}}</ref><ref name=":3">{{Cite journal|last1=Eilers|first1=Elisabeth J.|last2=Kremen|first2=Claire|last3=Greenleaf|first3=Sarah Smith|last4=Garber|first4=Andrea K.|last5=Klein|first5=Alexandra-Maria|date=2011-06-22|title=Contribution of Pollinator-Mediated Crops to Nutrients in the Human Food Supply|journal=PLOS ONE|language=en|volume=6|issue=6|pages=e21363|doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0021363|pmid=21731717|pmc=3120884|issn=1932-6203|bibcode=2011PLoSO...621363E|doi-access=free}}</ref> Another 2015 study also modeled what would happen should 100% of pollinators die off. In that scenario, 71 million people in low-income countries would become deficient in vitamin A, and the vitamin A intake of 2.2 billion people who are already consuming less than the recommended amount would further decline. Similarly, 173 million people would become deficient in folate, and 1.23 million people would further lessen their intake. Additionally, the global fruit supply would decrease by 22.9%, the global vegetable supply would decrease by 16.3%, and the global supply of nuts and seeds would decrease by 22.1%. This would lead to 1.42 million additional deaths each year from diseases, as well as 27 million disability-adjusted life years. In a less extreme scenario wherein only 50% of pollinators die off, 700,000 additional deaths would occur each year, as well as 13.2 million disability-adjusted years.<ref>{{Cite journal|date=2015-11-14|title=Effects of decreases of animal pollinators on human nutrition and global health: a modelling analysis|journal=The Lancet|language=en|volume=386|issue=10007|pages=1964–1972|doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61085-6|pmid=26188748|issn=0140-6736|last1=Smith|first1=Matthew R.|last2=Singh|first2=Gitanjali M.|last3=Mozaffarian|first3=Dariush|last4=Myers|first4=Samuel S.|s2cid=12623217|doi-access=free}}</ref>

[[File:Melon plant.jpg|alt=This a picture of a melon plant. Melon plants are crops requiring a pollinator and a good source of vitamin A|thumb|A melon plant, a crop requiring a pollinator and a good source of vitamin A]]

One study estimated that 70% of dietary vitamin A worldwide is found in crops that are animal pollinated, as well as 55% of [[folate]]. At present, eating plants which are pollinated by animals is responsible for only 9%, 20%, and 29% of calcium, fluoride, and iron intake, respectively, with most coming from meat and dairy. 74% of all globally produced lipids are found in oils from plants that are animal pollinated, as well as 98% of vitamin C.<ref name=":3" />