Editing Population ageing (section)

==Economics of ageing==
{{main article|Dependency ratio|Generational accounting|Pensions crisis}}

The economic effects of an ageing population are considerable.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Jarzebski |first1=Marcin Pawel |last2=Elmqvist |first2=Thomas |last3=Gasparatos |first3=Alexandros |last4=Fukushi |first4=Kensuke |last5=Eckersten |first5=Sofia |last6=Haase |first6=Dagmar |last7=Goodness |first7=Julie |last8=Khoshkar |first8=Sara |last9=Saito |first9=Osamu |last10=Takeuchi |first10=Kazuhiko |last11=Theorell |first11=Töres |last12=Dong |first12=Nannan |last13=Kasuga |first13=Fumiko |last14=Watanabe |first14=Ryugo |last15=Sioen |first15=Giles Bruno |last16=Yokohari |first16=Makoto |last17=Pu |first17=Jian |title=Ageing and population shrinking: implications for sustainability in the urban century |journal=[[npj Urban Sustainability]] |date=2021 |volume=1 |issue=1 |page=17 |doi=10.1038/s42949-021-00023-z |doi-access=free|bibcode=2021npjUS...1...17J }}</ref> Nowadays, more and more people are paying attention to the economic issues and social policy challenges related to the elderly population.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Sanderson |first1=Warren C. |last2=Scherbov |first2=Sergei |date=2007 |title=A new perspective on population aging |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/26347928 |journal=Demographic Research |volume=16 |pages=27–58 |doi=10.4054/DemRes.2007.16.2 |jstor=26347928 |issn=1435-9871}}</ref> Older people have higher accumulated savings per head than younger people but spend less on [[consumer goods]]. Depending on the age ranges at which the changes occur, an ageing population may thus result in lower [[interest rates]] and the economic benefits of lower [[inflation]]. Some economists{{who|date=November 2022}} in Japan see advantages in such changes, notably the opportunity to progress automation and technological development without causing unemployment, and emphasise a shift from [[GDP]] to personal well-being.

However, population ageing also increases some categories of expenditure, including some met from public finances. The largest area of expenditure in many countries is now [[health care]], whose cost is likely to increase dramatically as populations age. This would present governments with hard choices between higher [[taxes]], including a possible reweighing of tax from earnings to consumption and a reduced government role in providing health care.The working population will face greater pressure, and a portion of their taxes will have to be used to pay for healthcare and pensions for the elderly.{{citation needed|date=June 2024}} However, recent studies in some countries demonstrate the dramatic rising costs of health care are more attributable to rising drug and doctor costs and the higher use of diagnostic testing by all age groups, not to the ageing population that is often claimed.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/2011/09/13/dont_blame_aging_boomers.html |title=Don't blame aging boomers &#124; Toronto Star |work=Thestar.com |date=2011-09-13 |access-date=2013-03-20}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www2.canada.com/windsorstar/news/editorial/story.html?id=19c8adcf-c1f7-4508-9571-9b6e753427a2 |title=Don't blame the elderly for health care costs |publisher=.canada.com |date=2008-01-30 |access-date=2013-03-20 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140219032827/http://www2.canada.com/windsorstar/news/editorial/story.html?id=19c8adcf-c1f7-4508-9571-9b6e753427a2 |archive-date=2014-02-19 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://umanitoba.ca/outreach/evidencenetwork/aging-population/agingmore1 |title=The Silver Tsunami That Isn't|publisher=Umanitoba.ca |access-date=2013-03-20 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121002060817/http://umanitoba.ca/outreach/evidencenetwork/aging-population/agingmore1 |archive-date=2012-10-02 |url-status=dead }}</ref>

The second-largest expenditure of most governments is [[education]], with expenses that tend to fall with an ageing population, especially as fewer young people would probably continue into [[tertiary education]] as they would be in demand as part of the work force.

[[File:Dementia Prevalence in OECD.svg|thumb|upright=1.4|Prevalence of [[dementia]] in OECD countries (per 1000 populations)|left]]
Social security systems have also begun to experience problems. Earlier defined [[Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation|benefit pension systems]] are experiencing sustainability problems because of the increased longevity. The extension of the pension period was not paired with an extension of the active labour period or a rise in pension contributions, which has resulted in a decline of replacement ratios.

Population ageing also affects workforce. In many countries, the increase in the number of elderly people means the weakening or disappearance of the "[[demographic dividend]]", and social resources have to flow more towards elderly people in need of support.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Bovenberg |first1=Lans |last2=Uhlig |first2=Harald |last3=Bohn |first3=Henning |last4=Weil |first4=Philippe |date=2006-01-01 |title=Pension Systems and the Allocation of Macroeconomic Risk [with Comments] |url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/653983 |journal=NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics |volume=2006 |issue=1 |pages=241–344 |doi=10.1086/653983 |issn=1932-8796|url-access=subscription }}</ref> The demographic dividend refers to the beneficial impact of a decline in fertility rate on a country's population age structure and economic growth.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Crespo Cuaresma |first1=Jesús |last2=Lutz |first2=Wolfgang |last3=Sanderson |first3=Warren |date=2013-12-04 |title=Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend? |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-013-0245-x |journal=Demography |volume=51 |issue=1 |pages=299–315 |doi=10.1007/s13524-013-0245-x |pmid=24302530 |issn=0070-3370}}</ref> The older workers would spend more time on work and human capital of an ageing workforce is low, reducing labor productivity.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=White |first1=Mercedia Stevenson |last2=Burns |first2=Candace |last3=Conlon |first3=Helen Acree |date=October 2018 |title=The Impact of an Aging Population in the Workplace |journal=Workplace Health & Safety |language=en |volume=66 |issue=10 |pages=493–498 |doi=10.1177/2165079917752191 |pmid=29506442 |s2cid=3664469 |issn=2165-0799|doi-access=free }}</ref>

The expectation of continuing population ageing prompts questions about welfare states' capacity to meet the needs of the population. In the early 2000s, the World Health Organization set up guidelines to encourage "active ageing" and to help local governments address the challenges of an ageing population (Global Age-Friendly Cities) with regard to urbanization, housing, transportation, social participation, health services, etc.<ref>{{cite web|last1=World Health Organization|title=Global age-friendly cities: a guide|url=https://www.who.int/ageing/publications/Global_age_friendly_cities_Guide_English.pdf|website=WHO|access-date=May 5, 2015}}</ref> Local governments are well positioned to meet the needs of local, smaller populations, but as their resources vary from one to another (e.g. property taxes, the existence of community organizations), the greater responsibility on local governments is likely to increase inequalities.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Daly|first1=M|last2=Lewis|first2=J|title=The concept of social care and the analysis of contemporary welfare states|journal=British Journal of Sociology|date=2000|volume=51|issue=2|pages=281–298|pmid=10905001|doi=10.1111/j.1468-4446.2000.00281.x|url=http://revistas.usal.es/index.php/1130-2887/article/view/alh20157183101}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Mohan|first1=J|title=Geography and social policy : spatial divisions of welfare|journal=Progress in Human Geography|date=2003|volume=27|issue=3|pages=363–374|doi=10.1191/0309132503ph432pr|citeseerx=10.1.1.456.615|s2cid=54724709}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Trydegard|first1=G-B|last2=Thorslund|first2=M|title=Inequality in the welfare state ? Local variation in care of elderly – the case of Sweden|journal=International Journal of Social Welfare|date=2001|volume=10|issue=3|pages=174–184|doi=10.1111/1468-2397.00170}}</ref> In Canada, the most fortunate and healthier elders tend to live in more prosperous cities offering a wide range of services, but the less fortunate lack access to the same level of resources.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Rosenberg|first1=M W|title=Vieillir au Canada : les collectivités riches et les collectivités pauvres en services|journal=Horizons|date=1999|volume=2|page=18}}</ref> Private residences for the elderly also provide many services related to health and social participation (e.g. pharmacy, group activities, and events) on site, but they are not accessible to the less fortunate.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Aronson|first1=J|last2=Neysmith|first2=S M|title=Manufacturing social exclusion in the home care market|journal=Canadian Public Policy |date=2001|volume=27|issue=2|pages=151–165|doi=10.2307/3552194|jstor=3552194}}</ref> Also, the environmental gerontology indicates the importance of the environment in active ageing.<ref>{{cite book|author1=Sánchez-González, Diego |author2=Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Vicente|title=Environmental Gerontology in Europe and Latin America|year=2016|publisher=Springer Publishing Company|isbn=978-3-319-21418-4|page=284|location=New York}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|author1=Rowles, Graham D. |author2=Bernard, Miriam|title=Environmental Gerontology: Making Meaningful Places in Old Age|year=2013|publisher=Springer Publishing Company|location=New York|isbn=978-0826108135|page=320}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|author1=Scheidt, Rick J. |author2=Schwarz, Benyamin|title=Environmental Gerontology. What Now?|year=2013|publisher=Routledge|location=New York|isbn=978-0-415-62616-3|page=338}}</ref> In fact, promoting good environments (natural, built, social) in ageing can improve health and quality of life and reduce the problems of disability and dependence, and, in general, social spending and health spending.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Sanchez-Gonzalez|first1=D|title=The physical-social environment and aging from environmental gerontology and geography. Socio-spatial implications for Latin America|journal=Revista de Geografía Norte Grande |date=2015|volume=60|issue=1|pages=97–114|doi=10.4067/S0718-34022015000100006|doi-access=free}}</ref>

An ageing population may provide incentive for technological progress, as some hypothesise the effect of a shrinking workforce may be offset by [[automation]] and productivity gains.