Editing Prediction (section)

==Science==
{{multiple image
| direction         = vertical
| footer            = [[NASA]]'s 2004 predictions of the solar cycle, which were inaccurate (predicting that [[solar cycle 24]] would start in 2007 and be larger than cycle 23), and the refined predictions in 2012, showing it started in 2010 and is very small
| width             = 220
| image1            = SSN Predict NASA.gif
| image2            = Hathaway Cycle 24 Prediction.png
}}

In science, a prediction is a rigorous, often quantitative, statement, forecasting what would be observed under specific conditions; for example, according to theories of [[gravity]], if an apple fell from a tree it would be seen to move towards the center of the Earth with a specified and constant [[acceleration]]. The [[scientific method]] is built on testing statements that are [[logical consequence]]s of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable [[experiment]]s or observational studies.

A [[scientific theory]] whose predictions are contradicted by observations and evidence will be rejected. New theories that generate many new predictions can more easily be supported or [[falsifiability|falsified]] (see [[predictive power]]). Notions that make no ''[[testable]]'' predictions are usually <!--only usually; string theory is considered science though no predictions can be tested-->considered not to be part of science ([[protoscience]] or [[nescience]]) until testable predictions can be made.

[[Mathematical equation]]s and [[Mathematical model|models]], and [[computer model]]s, are frequently used to describe the past and future behaviour of a process within the boundaries of that model. In some cases the [[probability]] of an outcome, rather than a specific outcome, can be predicted, for example in much of [[quantum physics]].

In [[microprocessor]]s, [[Branch predictor|branch prediction]] permits avoidance of [[Pipeline (computing)|pipeline]] emptying at [[Branch (computer science)|branch instructions]].

In [[engineering]], possible [[failure mode]]s are predicted and avoided by correcting the [[failure mechanism]] causing the failure.

Accurate prediction and forecasting are very difficult in some areas, such as [[natural disasters]], [[pandemics]], [[demography]], [[population dynamics]] and [[meteorology]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Hendry |first1=Andrew P |title=Prediction in ecology and evolution |journal=[[BioScience]] |date=2023 |volume=73 |issue=11 |pages=785–799 |doi=10.1093/biosci/biad083 |doi-access=}}</ref> For example, it is possible to predict the occurrence of [[solar cycle]]s, but their exact timing and magnitude is much more difficult (see picture to right).

In materials engineering it is also possible to predict the life time of a material with a mathematical model.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Garcia Hernandez|first1=Maria Inmaculada|title=Life time prediction for low energy and ecological effects bituminous mixtures|journal=Construction and Building Materials|volume=118|year=2018|pages=108–113|doi=10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2017.09.158|s2cid=139437088 }}</ref>

In [[Medicine|medical]] science predictive and prognostic [[biomarkers]] can be used to predict patient outcomes in response to various treatment or the probability of a clinical event.<ref>{{citation |author1=Califf, R.M. | year=2018 |title=Biomarker definitions and their applications |journal=Exp Biol Med (Maywood) |volume=243 |issue=3| pages=213–221 |doi=10.1177/1535370217750088| pmid= 29405771|pmc=5813875 }}</ref>

=== Hypothesis ===
Established science makes useful predictions which are often extremely reliable and accurate; for example, [[eclipse]]s are routinely predicted.

New theories make predictions which allow them to be disproved by reality. For example, predicting the structure of crystals at the atomic level is a current research challenge.<ref>{{citation |author1=Woodley, S.M. |author2=Catlow, R. |year=2008 |title=Crystal structure prediction from first principles |journal=Nat Mater |volume=7 |issue=12 |pages=937–946 |doi=10.1038/nmat2321 |pmid=19029928 |bibcode=2008NatMa...7..937W }}</ref> In the early 20th century the scientific consensus was that there existed an absolute [[frame of reference]], which was given the name ''[[luminiferous ether]]''. The existence of this absolute frame was deemed necessary for consistency with the established idea that the speed of light is constant. The famous [[Michelson–Morley experiment]] demonstrated that predictions deduced from this concept were not borne out in reality, thus disproving the theory of an absolute frame of reference. The [[special theory of relativity]] was proposed by Einstein as an explanation for the seeming inconsistency between the constancy of the speed of light and the non-existence of a special, preferred or absolute frame of reference.

[[Albert Einstein]]'s theory of [[general relativity]] could not easily be tested as it did not produce any effects observable on a terrestrial scale. However, as one of the first [[tests of general relativity]], the theory predicted that large masses such as [[star]]s would bend light, in contradiction to accepted theory; this was observed in a 1919 eclipse.