Editing Regression fallacy (section)

==Misapplication==
On the other hand, dismissing valid explanations can lead to a worse situation. For example:
<blockquote>After the Western Allies invaded Normandy, creating a second major front, German control of Europe waned. Clearly, the combination of the Western Allies and the USSR drove the Germans back.</blockquote>

''Fallacious evaluation:'' "Given that the counterattacks against Germany occurred only after they had conquered the greatest amount of territory under their control, regression toward the mean can explain the retreat of German forces from occupied territories as a purely random fluctuation that would have happened without any intervention on the part of the USSR or the Western Allies." However, this was not the case. The reason is that political power and occupation of territories is not primarily determined by random events, making the concept of regression toward the mean inapplicable (on the large scale).

In essence, misapplication of regression toward the mean can reduce all events to a [[just-so story]], without cause or effect. (Such misapplication takes as a premise that all events are random, as they must be for the concept of regression toward the mean to be validly applied.)