Editing Swing state (section)

==Determining swing states==
Presidential campaigns and pundits seek to keep track of the shifting electoral landscape. While swing states in past elections can be determined simply by looking at how close the vote was in each state, determining states likely to be swing states in future elections requires estimation and projection based on previous election results, opinion polling, political trends, recent developments since the previous election, and any strengths or weaknesses of the particular candidate involved. The swing-state "map" transforms between each election cycle, depending on the candidates and their policies, sometimes dramatically and sometimes subtly. 

For example, in the [[2016 United States presidential election|2016 election]], Hillary Clinton overperformed in educated, suburban states such as Colorado and Virginia compared to past Democratic candidates, while Donald Trump performed above standard Republican expectations in the [[Rust Belt]], such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In addition, gradual shifts can occur within states due to changes in demography, geography, or population patterns. For example, many currently [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] states, like [[Arkansas]], [[Missouri]], [[Tennessee]], and [[West Virginia]], had been battlegrounds as recently as 2004.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0621print.html|title=Battleground States Poll – June 21, 2004|date=June 21, 2004|website=[[The Wall Street Journal]]|language=en-US|access-date=July 5, 2017}}</ref>

According to a pre-election 2016 analysis, the thirteen most competitive states were [[Wisconsin]], [[Pennsylvania]], [[New Hampshire]], [[Minnesota]], [[Arizona]], [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]], [[Virginia]], [[Florida]], [[Michigan]], [[Nevada]], [[Colorado]], [[North Carolina]], and [[Maine]]. [[Nebraska's 2nd congressional district]] was (and is still as of 2024) also considered competitive.<ref name="the-only-thing-that-matters"/> However, this projection was not specific to any particular [[United States presidential election|election cycle]], and assumed similar levels of support for both [[Political parties in the United States|parties]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-electoral-college-pennsylvania-moves-toward-clinton/|title=Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Electoral College: Pennsylvania Moves Toward Clinton |website=centerforpolitics.org |access-date=September 30, 2015}}</ref>

Ten weeks before the 2020 presidential election, statistical analytics website [[FiveThirtyEight]] noted that the electoral map is "undergoing a series of changes", with some states moving rightward, other states moving leftward, and two states (Florida, until the 2020 election, and [[North Carolina]]) described as "perennial" swing states.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200826152317/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/|url-status=dead|archive-date=August 26, 2020|title=Is The Electoral Map Changing?|date=August 26, 2020|website=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=September 1, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201208110320/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/|url-status=dead|archive-date=December 8, 2020|title=How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map|date=December 8, 2020|website=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=October 11, 2022}}</ref> Likewise, an analysis of results of the 2018 midterms indicated that the "battleground states" are changing, with [[Colorado]] and [[Ohio]] becoming less competitive and more Democratic and Republican, respectively, while [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]] and [[Arizona]] were slowly turning into swing states.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/new-election-map-ohio-colorado-no-longer-swing-states-n937646|title=New election map: Ohio, Colorado no longer swing states|publisher=NBC News|last1=Chinni|first1=Dante|last2=Bronston|first2=Sally|date=November 18, 2018|access-date=November 19, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/|title=States of Play: Georgia|publisher=Sabato's Crystal Ball|last1=Coleman|first1=J. Miles|last2=Francis|first2=Niles|date=July 9, 2020|access-date=November 19, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-post-labor-day-sprint-part-two-the-electoral-college/|title=The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part Two: The Electoral College|publisher=Sabato's Crystal Ball|last1=Sabato|first1=Larry J.|last2=Kondik|first2=Kyle|last3=Coleman|first3=J. Miles|date=September 10, 2020|access-date=November 19, 2020}}</ref>