Editing Earthquake prediction (section)

=== 2004 and 2005: Southern California, U.S. (Keilis-Borok) ===
{{anchor|Southern California}}

The [[#M8|M8]] algorithm (developed under the leadership of [[Vladimir Keilis-Borok]] at [[UCLA]]) gained respect by the apparently successful predictions of the 2003 San Simeon and Hokkaido earthquakes.<ref>{{Harvnb|CEPEC|2004a}}; {{Harvnb|Hough|2010b|pp=145–146}}.</ref> Great interest was therefore generated by the prediction in early 2004 of a M ≥ 6.4 earthquake to occur somewhere within an area of southern California of approximately 12,000 sq. miles, on or before 5 September 2004.<ref name=":11"/> In evaluating this prediction the [[California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council]] (CEPEC) noted that this method had not yet made enough predictions for statistical validation, and was sensitive to input assumptions. It therefore concluded that no "special public policy actions" were warranted, though it reminded all Californians "of the significant seismic hazards throughout the state."<ref name=":11"/> The predicted earthquake did not occur.

A very similar prediction was made for an earthquake on or before 14 August 2005, in approximately the same area of southern California. The CEPEC's evaluation and recommendation were essentially the same, this time noting that the previous prediction and two others had not been fulfilled.<ref>{{Harvnb|CEPEC|2004b}}.</ref> This prediction also failed.