Editing Earthquake prediction (section)

=== 2009: L'Aquila, Italy (Giuliani) ===
{{Main|2009 L'Aquila earthquake}}

At 03:32 on 6 April 2009, the [[Abruzzo]] region of central Italy was rocked by a magnitude M 6.3 earthquake.<ref>{{Harvnb|ICEF|2011|p=320}}.</ref> In the city of [[L'Aquila]] and surrounding area around 60,000 buildings collapsed or were seriously damaged, resulting in 308 deaths and 67,500 people left homeless.<ref>{{Harvnb|Alexander|2010|p=326}}.</ref> Around the same time, it was reported that Giampaolo Giuliani had predicted the earthquake, had tried to warn the public, but had been muzzled by the Italian government.<ref>{{Harvnb|Squires|Rayne|2009}}; {{Harvnb|McIntyre|2009}}.</ref>

Giampaolo Giuliani was a laboratory technician at the [[Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso]]. As a hobby he had for some years been monitoring radon using instruments he had designed and built. Prior to the L'Aquila earthquake he was unknown to the scientific community, and had not published any scientific work.<ref>{{Harvnb|Hall|2011|p=267}}.</ref> He had been interviewed on 24 March by an Italian-language blog, ''Donne Democratiche'', about a swarm of low-level earthquakes in the Abruzzo region that had started the previous December. He said that this swarm was normal and would diminish by the end of March. On 30 March, L'Aquila was struck by a magnitude 4.0 temblor, the largest to date.<ref>{{Harvnb|Kerr|2009}}.</ref>

On 27 March Giuliani warned the mayor of L'Aquila there could be an earthquake within 24 hours, and an earthquake M~2.3 occurred.<ref>{{Harvnb|Dollar|2010}}.</ref> On 29 March he made a second prediction.<ref>{{Harvtxt|ICEF|2011|p=323}} alludes to predictions made on 17 February and 10 March.</ref> He telephoned the mayor of the town of Sulmona, about 55 kilometers southeast of L'Aquila, to expect a "damaging" – or even "catastrophic" – earthquake within 6 to 24 hours. Loudspeaker vans were used to warn the inhabitants of Sulmona to evacuate, with consequential panic. No quake ensued and Giuliano was cited for inciting public alarm and enjoined from making future public predictions.<ref>{{Harvnb|Kerr|2009}}; {{Harvnb|Hall|2011|p=267}}; {{Harvnb|Alexander|2010|p=330}}.</ref>

After the L'Aquila event Giuliani claimed that he had found alarming rises in radon levels just hours before.<ref>{{Harvnb|Kerr|2009}}; {{Harvnb|Squires|Rayne|2009}}.</ref> He said he had warned relatives, friends and colleagues on the evening before the earthquake hit.<ref>{{Harvnb|Dollar|2010}}; {{Harvnb|Kerr|2009}}.</ref> He was subsequently interviewed by the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection, which found that Giuliani had not transmitted a valid prediction of the mainshock to the civil authorities before its occurrence.<ref>{{Harvnb|ICEF|2011|pp=323, 335}}.</ref>