Open main menu
Home
Random
Recent changes
Special pages
Community portal
Preferences
About Wikipedia
Disclaimers
Incubator escapee wiki
Search
User menu
Talk
Dark mode
Contributions
Create account
Log in
Editing
De Finetti's theorem
(section)
Warning:
You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you
log in
or
create an account
, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.
Anti-spam check. Do
not
fill this in!
=== A plain-language consequence of the theorem === According to [[David Spiegelhalter]] (ref 1) the theorem provides a pragmatic approach to de Finetti's statement that "Probability does not exist". If our view of the probability of a sequence of events is subjective but remains unaffected by the order in which we make our observations, then the sequence can be regarded as [[Exchangeable_random_variables|''exchangeable'']]. De Finetti's theorem then implies that believing the sequence to be exchangeable is mathematically equivalent to acting as if the events are ''independent'' and have an objective underlying probability of occurring, with our uncertainty about what that probability is being expressed by a subjective probability distribution function. According to Spiegelhalter: β³This is remarkable: it shows that, starting from a specific, but purely subjective, expression of convictions, we should act as if events were driven by objective chances."
Edit summary
(Briefly describe your changes)
By publishing changes, you agree to the
Terms of Use
, and you irrevocably agree to release your contribution under the
CC BY-SA 4.0 License
and the
GFDL
. You agree that a hyperlink or URL is sufficient attribution under the Creative Commons license.
Cancel
Editing help
(opens in new window)