Editing Political realignment (section)

== United States ==

===Political realignment in United States history===

* [[1800 United States presidential election|1800 presidential election]] — [[Thomas Jefferson]]
** This election completed the turnover of power in the [[First Party System]] from the [[Federalist Party]], led by [[Alexander Hamilton]], to Jefferson and his [[Democratic-Republican Party]]. The center of power shifted from New England to the South and [[Jeffersonian democracy]] became the dominant ideology.
** Republicans gained 19.7% of House seats in 1800, 9.4% in 1802 and 9.7% in 1804, for a total gain of 38.8% in 3 elections.
** As late as 1812, the Federalists came within one state of winning. A larger shift in electoral politics arguably came in the 1812–1816 period, as the Federalists became discredited after opposing the [[War of 1812]].
* [[1828 United States presidential election|1828 presidential election]] — [[Andrew Jackson]]
** This election redefined the party system in the United States, setting up the [[Second Party System]], which was dominated by [[Jacksonian democracy]]. The Democratic-Republicans split into two parties, later renamed as the [[History of the United States Democratic Party|Democratic Party]] and the [[Whig Party (United States)|Whig Party]]. The Democrats were led by [[Andrew Jackson]] of Tennessee and [[Martin Van Buren]] of New York. By 1834 the Whigs emerged as the opposition to Andrew Jackson, led by [[Henry Clay]] of Kentucky.<ref name="silbey">Silbey (1991)</ref>
* [[1860 United States presidential election|1860 presidential election]] — [[Abraham Lincoln]]
** After the Whigs collapsed after 1852, party alignments were in turmoil, with several third parties, such as the [[Know Nothing]]s and the [[Opposition Party (Southern U.S.)|Opposition Party]]. The system stabilized in 1858 and the presidential election marked the ascendence of the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party]]. Abraham Lincoln beat out three other contenders — but even if they had somehow united he still had the majority of the electoral vote. The Republican party was pledged to the long-term ending of slavery, which was proximate cause of secession. Republicans rallied around nationalism in 1861 and fought the [[American Civil War]] to end secession. During the war the Republicans, under Lincoln's leadership, switched to a goal of short-term ending of slavery.<ref name="silbey"/> By 1864, the Republicans had a coalition built around followers of the "free labor" ideology, as well as soldiers and veterans of the [[Union Army]]. (Since then, the military establishment has favored the Republicans.){{citation needed|date= June 2023}}
*** The Republican Party went from 18.3% of the House in 1854, to 38.0% in 1856, 48.7% in 1858, and 59.0% in 1860, for a total gain of 40.7% in 4 elections.<ref>Michael F. Holt, ''The Political Crisis of the 1850s'' (1978)</ref>
* [[1896 United States presidential election|1896 presidential election]] — [[William McKinley]]
** The status of this election is hotly disputed; some political scientists, such as Jerome Clubb, do not consider it a realigning election. Other political scientists and historians, such as Kleppner and Burnham consider this the ultimate realignment and emphasize that the rules of the game had changed, the leaders were new, voting alignments had changed, and a whole new set of issues came to dominance as the old Civil War-era issues faded away. Funding from office holders was replaced by outside fundraising from business in 1896 — a major shift in political history. Furthermore, McKinley's tactics in beating [[William Jennings Bryan]] (as developed by [[Mark Hanna]]) marked a sea change in the evolution of the modern campaign. McKinley raised a huge amount of money from business interests, outspending Bryan by 10 to 1. Bryan meanwhile invented the modern technique of campaigning heavily in closely contested states, the first candidate to do so.<ref>Robert J. Dinkin, ''Campaigning in America: A History of Election Practices'' (1989)</ref> Bryan's message of [[populism]] and class conflict marked a new direction for the Democrats. McKinley's victory in 1896 and repeat in 1900 was a triumph for [[pluralism (political philosophy)|pluralism]], as all sectors and groups shared in the new prosperity brought about by his policy of rapid industrial growth.<ref>Lewis L. Gould, "New Perspectives on the Republican Party, 1877–1913", ''American Historical Review'', Vol. 77, No. 4 (Oct., 1972), pp. 1074–1082</ref><ref>Burnham (1986)</ref>
** While Republicans lost House seats in 1896, this followed a massive two-election gain: from 25.9% in 1890 to 34.8% in 1892 and 71.1% in 1894, for a total 45.2% gain. Republicans lost 13.4% in 1896, but still held 57.7% of House seats.
** In terms of correlations among counties, the election of 1896 is a realignment flop, but this is only a problem if realignment is considered to occur in single elections. Rather, if realignment is thought of as a generational or long-term political movement, then change will occur over several elections, even if there is one "critical" election defining the new alignment. So, as pointed out above, the 1896 realignment really began around 1892, and the 130 seat GOP gain in 1894, the all-record for a house election, meant there were almost no seats left to pick up in 1896. However, the presidential election in 1896 is usually considered the start of the new alignment since the national election allowed the nation to make a more conscious decision about the future of industrial policy by selecting McKinley over Bryan, making this the defining election in the realignment.<ref name="Shafer1991"/> The [[1876 United States presidential election|election of 1876]] passes the numbers test much better compared to 1896 alone, and Mayhew (2004) argues it resulted in far more drastic changes in United States politics: Reconstruction came to a sudden halt, African-Americans in the South would soon be completely disenfranchised, and politicians began to focus on new issues (such as [[tariff]]s and civil service reform).
* [[1932 United States presidential election|1932 presidential election]] — [[Franklin D. Roosevelt]]
** Of all the realigning elections, this one musters the most agreement from political scientists and historians; it is the archetypal realigning election.<ref name="Shafer1991">Shafer (1991)</ref> FDR's admirers such as [[Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.]] have argued that [[New Deal]] policies, developed in response to the crash of 1929 and the miseries of the [[Great Depression]] under [[Herbert Hoover]], represented an entirely new phenomenon in American politics. More critical historians such as [[Carl Degler]] and [[David M. Kennedy (historian)|David Kennedy]] see a great deal of continuity with Hoover's energetic but unsuccessful economic policies. In many ways, Roosevelt's legacy still defines the Democratic Party; he forged an enduring [[New Deal Coalition]] of big city machines, the White South, intellectuals, [[labor union]]s, Catholics, Jews, and Westerners. In 1936, [[African-Americans]] were added to the coalition (African-Americans had previously been denied the vote or voted Republican). For instance, [[Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania|Pittsburgh]], which was a Republican stronghold from the [[American Civil War|Civil War]] up to this point, suddenly became a Democratic stronghold, and has elected a Democratic mayor to office in every election since this time.
** The Democrats went from controlling 37.7% of House seats in 1928 to 49.6% in 1930 and 71.9% in 1932, for a total gain of 34.2% in two elections.
** In the Senate, the Democrats went from controlling 40.6% of seats in 1928 to 49% in 1930 and 61.5% in 1932, for a total gain of 20.9% in two elections.

===Other possible political realignments===
Some debate exists today as to what elections could be considered realigning elections after 1932.<ref>Mayhew (2004); Rosenof (2003); Shafer (1991)</ref> Although several candidates have been proposed, there is no widespread agreement:

* [[1874 United States elections|1874 elections]]
** The 1874 elections saw a resurgence of the Democratic Party. Discontent with the [[presidency of Ulysses S. Grant]] and the economic depression known at the time as the [[Panic of 1873]], and the slow return of disillusioned [[Liberal Republican Party (United States)|Liberal Republicans from their 1872 third party ticket]], all energized the Democrats. The Democrats had not controlled either chamber of Congress since before the War. The realignment meant the Democrats generally controlled the House of Representatives from 1875 to their massive defeat in 1894. Republicans eked out very narrow wins in most of the presidential elections in that period. The [[Civil Rights Act of 1875]], enacted in the [[lame-duck session]] of Congress following the 1874 elections, was the last major Reconstruction law, and it was chiefly of symbolic value. The new strength of the Democrats marked the end of Reconstruction legislation. With the end of Reconstruction, the 11 former states of the Confederacy became a [[dominant-party system]] known as the [[Solid South]]. The [[tariffs in United States history|tariff]] and especially [[monetary policy]] emerged as the great ideological debates after 1874.<ref name="jcampbell1">{{cite journal |last1=Campbell |first1=James E. |date=Fall 2006 |title=Party Systems and Realignments in the United States, 1868-2004 |journal=Social Science History |volume=30 |issue=3 |pages=359–386 |doi=10.1215/01455532-2006-002 |doi-broken-date=1 November 2024 |jstor=40267912}}</ref><ref name="nbarreyre1">{{cite journal |last1=Barreyre |first1=Nicolas |date=October 2011 |title=The Politics of Economic Crises: The Panic of 1873, the End of Reconstruction, and the Realignment of American Politics |journal=The Journal of the Gilded Age and Progressive Era |volume=10 |issue=4 |pages=403–423 |doi=10.1017/s1537781411000260 |jstor=23045120 |s2cid=154493223}}</ref>
* [[1964 United States presidential election|1964]] and [[1968 United States presidential election|1968 presidential elections]] — [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] and [[Richard Nixon]]
** The 1968 election is often cited due to the innovative campaign strategy of Nixon.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Perlstein|first=Rick|author-link=Rick Perlstein|title=Nixonland: The Rise of a President and the Fracturing of America|year=2008|publisher=Simon and Schuster|isbn=978-0-7432-4302-5|title-link=Nixonland: The Rise of a President and the Fracturing of America}}; Rosenof (2003); Shafer (1991)</ref> In running against [[Hubert Humphrey]], he used what became known as the [[Southern strategy]]. He appealed to white voters in the South with a call for "[[states' rights]]", which they interpreted as meaning that the federal government would no longer demand the [[desegregation busing in the United States|forced busing]] of school children as ordered by federal courts. Democrats protested that Nixon exploited racial fears in winning the support of white southerners and northern white ethnics.<ref>Perlstein, ''Nixonland'' (2008);</ref> Roosevelt's New Deal coalition had lasted over 30 years but after the urban riots and Vietnam crisis of the mid-1960s one by one the coalition partners peeled away until only a hollow core remained, setting the stage for a GOP revival. Nixon's downfall postponed the realignment which came about under Reagan, as even the term "liberalism" fell into disrepute.{{Citation needed|date=April 2023}} 
** Including this as a realignment preserves the roughly 30-year cyclical pattern: 1896 to 1932, 1932 to 1964, and 1964 to 1994.<!-- Except Reagan was elected in 1980 so that would be only 16 years. -->
** For political scientists, 1964 was primarily an issue-based realignment. The classic study of the 1964 election, by Carmines and Stimson (1989), shows how the polarization of activists and elites on race-related issues sent clear signals to the general public about the historic change in each party's position on Civil Rights.{{Citation needed|date=June 2009}} Notably, while only 50% of African-Americans self-identified as Democrats in the 1960 National Election Study, 82% did in 1964, and the numbers are higher in the 21st century. The clearest indicator of the importance of this election was that Deep Southern states, such as Mississippi, voted Republican in 1964. In contrast, much of the traditional Republican strongholds of the Northeast and Upper Midwest voted Democratic. Vermont and Maine, which stood alone voting against FDR in 1936, voted for LBJ in 1964.
** Many analysts do not consider 1968 a realigning election because control of [[United States Congress|Congress]] did not change; the Democrats would control the [[United States Senate|Senate]] until 1980 (and again from 1986 to 1994) and the [[United States House of Representatives|House]] until 1994.<ref name="Shafer1991"/> Also missing was a marked change in the partisan orientation of the electorate. Importantly, these two elections are consistent with the theory in that the old New Deal issues were replaced by Civil Rights issues as the major factor explaining why citizens identified with each party. Other scholars<ref>Kleppner (1981)</ref> contend that this is the beginning of a thirty-year dealignment, in which citizens generally moved towards political independence, which ended with the 1994 election.
* [[1980 United States presidential election|1980 presidential election]] — [[Ronald Reagan]]
** In this election, Ronald Reagan won a sweeping victory over Democrat [[Jimmy Carter]], who won only six states (plus the [[District of Columbia]]), which accounted for just 10% of the electoral vote. Republicans also took control of the Senate for the first time in over 25 years. (See [[Reagan's coattails]].)
** The 1980 election can be seen as an ideological realignment, as it marked the beginning of the [[Reagan Era]] and marked a realignment towards [[Conservatism in the United States#1980s: Reagan Era|conservatism]] and conservative policies.<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/06/06/legacy.politics/index.html|title=Reagan cast a wide shadow in politics|author=Loughlin, Sean|date=July 6, 2004|access-date=October 15, 2016|work=CNN}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|last=Troy |first=Gil |url=http://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-by-era/essays/age-reagan |title=The Age of Reagan &#124; The Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History |website=Gilderlehrman.org |date=29 January 2012 |access-date=June 29, 2016}}</ref><ref name="ReaganRealigned">{{cite web|last=Page |first=Susan |url=http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-06-05-reagan-political-landscape_x.htm |title= Reagan's political force realigned political landscape |website=USA Today |date=June 6, 2004 |access-date=June 29, 2016}}</ref> In addition, [[Reagan Democrat]]s are a result of his presidency and campaigns.<ref name="ReaganRealigned"/> Many scholars viewed Reagan's policies as sufficiently new to consider this a realigning election.<ref>Rosenof (2003); Shafer (1991)</ref>
** On the other hand, critics like Mayhew (2004) note that control of the House did not change, nor even come close to changing, at this time. Republicans actually held fewer House seats in 1983 than they held in 1973. In addition, the Republicans lost the Senate again only six years later, leading some to conclude that the Senators simply rode in on [[Reagan's coattails]], and did not represent a true shift in the ideological preferences of their constituents. Also absent was a shift in partisan alignment from [[public opinion poll]]s.<ref>Abramowitz and Saunders (1998)</ref> Both [[Liberalism|liberals]], such as [[Nobel laureate]] [[Paul Krugman]], and [[conservatism|conservatives]], such as Reagan [[White House Communications Director|communications director]] [[Pat Buchanan]], would also argue that [[1968 United States presidential election|Nixon's victory in 1968]] set the stage for Reagan's victory, and the fact that Reagan did so well in Southern states, [[Solid South|traditionally a Democratic stronghold]], as well as the fact that some of Reagan's rhetoric involving [[law and order (politics)|law and order]] and [[states' rights speech|states' rights]] seemed to mirror Nixon's [[Southern Strategy]] seem to bear this fact out.<ref>[[Paul Krugman|Krugman, Paul]]. ''[[The Conscience of a Liberal]]''. New York City; W. W. Norton, 2007. Print.</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/32626226#32626226 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121102063920/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/32626226#32626226 |url-status=dead |archive-date=2012-11-02 |title=Morning Joe |publisher=MSNBC |access-date=2012-03-07}}</ref>
* [[1992 United States presidential election|1992 presidential election]] — [[Bill Clinton]]
** Clinton carried several states that had previously been Republican or swing states in both the Northeast and on the West Coast. Most notably, the largest state [[California]] switched from being a reliably Republican state to being consistently Democratic: it has been carried by Democratic candidates ever since. Other states that switched and have remained with the Democrats since include [[Connecticut]], [[Delaware]], [[Illinois]], [[Maine]], [[Maryland]], [[New Jersey]], and [[Vermont]]. In contrast, despite the fact Clinton came from the South, he only carried four of the former Confederate states: [[Arkansas]] (his home state), [[Louisiana]], [[Tennessee]] (his [[Al Gore|vice president's]] home state) and [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]], confirming it as a Republican base of support.
** Since 1992, the Democratic candidate has won the national popular vote in every presidential election except [[2004 United States presidential election|2004]] and [[2024 United States presidential election|2024]], suggesting some manner of national realignment away from the Republican domination of the 1970s and 1980s. This national tendency toward Democratic presidential candidates did not necessarily translate to Democratic victories in congressional elections. However Republicans remained competitive nationally, making historic gains in the [[1994 United States House of Representatives elections|1994]] and [[2010 United States House of Representatives elections|2010]] midterms, although the composition of the electorate in presidential versus midterm elections vary significantly.<ref name="AD052213">{{cite news
 | title = Opinion: despite 'autopsy,' GOP could have revival in 2014
 | work = [[Politico]]
 | date = April 7, 2013
 | url = http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/despite-autopsy-gop-could-have-revival-in-2014-89714.html
| access-date = May 22, 2013
}}</ref>
* [[1994 United States House of Representatives elections|1994 House of Representatives]] and [[1994 United States Senate elections|Senate elections]]<ref name="jenkins">Jenkins et al. (2006)</ref>
** This election is now generally seen as a realigning election by political scientists.<ref name="jenkins"/> Republicans won majorities in both the House and the Senate, taking control of both chambers for the first time since 1954. In addition, control of the House continued until 2007. [[Newt Gingrich]], who promoted a "[[Contract with America]]", successfully nationalized the campaign by coordinating races around the country. The overwhelming nature of the Republicans' victory points to a realignment; the party gained 54 seats, while neither party would gain more than a handful of seats in any election until 2006.
** The GOP gained seats in 43 of 46 state houses. These gains continued into the next decade, so that by 2002 the GOP held the majority of state legislative seats for the first time in fifty years.<ref name="jenkins"/>
** Notably, the period of party decline and mass dealignment appears to have ended in the 1990s. Strength of partisanship, as measured by the National Election Study, increased in the 1990s, as does the percentage of the mass public who perceive important differences between each party.<ref name="jenkins"/>
** This election also indicates the rise of religious issues as one of the most important [[Cleavage (politics)|cleavage]] in American politics.{{Citation needed|date=June 2009}} While Reagan's election hinted at the importance of the religious right, it was the formation of the Christian Coalition (the successor to the Moral Majority) in the early 1990s that gave Republicans organizational and financial muscle, particularly at the state level.<ref>Ruth Murray Brown, ''For a Christian America: A History of the Religious Right'' (2002)</ref> By 2004 the media portrayed the political nation as divided into "[[Red state vs. blue state divide|red]]" (Republican) and "[[Red state vs. blue state divide|blue]]" (Democratic) states, with reputed differences in cultural attitudes and politics between the two blocs.
** The Republicans made historic inroads in the [[Solid South]] where they picked up total of 19 House seats. Going into the election, House Democrats outnumbered House Republicans. Afterwards, the Republicans outnumbered Democrats for the first time since [[Reconstruction Era|Reconstruction]].<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1994/11/11/us/1994-elections-south-rising-gop-tide-overwhelms-democratic-levees-south.html|title=THE 1994 ELECTIONS: THE SOUTH; The Rising G.O.P. Tide Overwhelms the Democratic Levees in the South|author=Peter Applebome |date=11 November 1994| access-date=22 September 2014 |work=The New York Times}}</ref>
* [[2008 United States presidential election|2008 presidential election]] — [[Barack Obama]]
** In the 2008 elections, the [[Democratic party (United States)|Democrats]] expanded their majorities in the [[United States Congress|Congress]], and won the presidency decisively. This was due to the momentum carried over from the Democrats' 2006 successes, as well as the continued unpopularity of President [[George W. Bush]], whose administration was now faced with a financial crisis and economic recession. Some people believe that 2008 is possibly a realigning election with a long-lasting impact, just as the election of [[Franklin D. Roosevelt]] was in [[1932 United States presidential election|1932]] and the election of [[Ronald Reagan]] in [[1980 United States presidential election|1980]] were.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.theweek.com/article/index/90200/Obama_in_Reagans_shadow |title=Obama in Reagan's shadow |newspaper=The Week |access-date=2012-03-07}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.theweek.com/article/index/90147/End_Times_for_Reaganism |title=End Times for Reaganism |newspaper=The Week |access-date=2012-03-07}}</ref> President Obama was reelected in the [[2012 United States presidential election|2012]] election as well, becoming only the third Democrat to win an absolute majority of the popular vote more than once<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.thenation.com/blog/171178/obama-has-great-big-mandate-and-he-must-use-it#|title=Obama's 3 Million Vote, Electoral College Landslide, Majority of States Mandate|last=Nichols|first=John|date=November 9, 2012|work=The Nation|access-date=November 18, 2012}}</ref> while losing only two entire states that he had won in 2008.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/us/politics/obama-romney-presidential-election-2012.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0|title=Divided U.S. Gives Obama More Time|last1=Zeleny|first1=Jeff|last2=Rutenberg|first2=Jim|date=November 6, 2012|work=The New York Times|access-date=November 18, 2012}}</ref>
** On the other hand, the Republican Party experienced [[2010 United States elections|major gains two years later in 2010]], [[2010 United States House elections|retaking the house]] with a gain of 63 seats, the largest Republican gain in 72 years. Additionally, the Republican Party [[2010 United States Senate election|gained 6 seats]] in the Senate, slimming the Democratic majority. Despite Obama's reelection in 2012, the Republicans had another strong performance in the [[2014 United States elections|2014 midterms]]; they not only increased their majority [[2014 United States House of Representatives elections|in the House]] and [[2014 United States Senate elections|recaptured the Senate]], but also made gains in the [[2014 United States gubernatorial elections|gubernatorial races]] and other statewide and local races, resulting in 31 Republican governorships and 68 state legislative houses under Republican control, thus increasing their influence to the largest Republican majority in the entire country in nearly a century.<ref name="reuters">{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-elections-states-idUSKBN0IP2HB20141105|title=Republicans gain big in state legislative elections &#124; Reuters|first=Karen|last=Pierog|work=Reuters|access-date=November 20, 2014}}</ref><ref name="washingtonpost">{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/11/11/nearly-half-of-americans-now-live-in-states-under-total-gop-control/|title=Nearly half of Americans will now live in states under total GOP control |newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]|access-date=November 20, 2014}}</ref><ref name="realclearpolitics">{{cite web|url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/11/11/the_other_gop_wave_state_legislatures__124626.html|title=The Other GOP Wave: State Legislatures |website=RealClearPolitics|access-date=November 20, 2014}}</ref>
* [[2016 United States presidential election|2016 presidential election]] — [[Donald Trump]]
** In this election, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, won [[2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]], [[2016 United States presidential election in Michigan|Michigan]], and [[2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]], all Midwestern and/or [[Rust Belt]] states that some had previously considered safely Democratic, though those states were close in several prior elections. Trump also came close to winning [[2016 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]], [[2016 United States presidential election in Minnesota|Minnesota]], and [[2016 United States presidential election in Maine|Maine]].<ref>{{cite journal|title=The revolt of the Rust Belt: place and politics in the age of anger|journal=The British Journal of Sociology|volume=68|issue=S1|pages=S120–S152|author=Michael McQuarrie|date=November 8, 2017|doi=10.1111/1468-4446.12328|pmid=29114874|s2cid=26010609 |doi-access=free}}</ref>
** However, like with the 2008 Obama election, two years later in the [[2018 United States elections]], the Republican Party lost control of the House in a loss of 40 seats, but gained two seats in the Senate, so the full effect of the 2016 election and Trump Presidency as a critical election remains to be seen.
**Furthermore, Donald Trump lost to former vice president and Democratic candidate [[Joe Biden]] in the [[2020 United States presidential election]]. In particular, Trump lost the three states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that were cited as key to his victory in 2016, although by relatively narrow margins compared to the Obama era.
**In 2024, Trump managed to make a return to the presidency with the same coalition as 2016, however he was able to come within single digits of the Hispanic vote, allowing for Nevada to be flipped and larger margins in Texas and Florida.