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Solar cycle
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=== Recent cycles === ==== Cycle 25 ==== {{Main|Solar cycle 25}} Solar cycle 25 began in December 2019.<ref name="Hello 25">{{cite web|url=https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle|title=Hello Solar Cycle 25|author=[[National Weather Service]]|access-date=15 September 2020}}</ref> Several predictions have been made for solar cycle 25<ref name="ADS serach">for example: {{cite web |title=ADS search for "solar sunspot cycle 25 prediction" |url=https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/search/q=abs%3A(prediction%20solar%20sunspot%20%22cycle%2025%22)&sort=date%20desc%2C%20bibcode%20desc&p_=0 |access-date= 17 March 2020}}</ref> based on different methods, ranging from very weak to strong magnitude. A physics-based prediction relying on the data-driven solar dynamo and solar surface flux transport models seems to have predicted the strength of the solar polar field at the current minima correctly and forecasts a weak but not insignificant solar cycle 25 similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24.<ref name=Bhowmik>{{cite journal |last1=Bhowmik |first1=Prantika |last2=Nandy |first2=Dibyendu |title=Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions |journal=Nature Communications |date=6 December 2018 |volume=9 |issue=1 |page=5209 |doi=10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0 |pmid=30523260 |pmc=6283837 |arxiv=1909.04537 |bibcode=2018NatCo...9.5209B |language=en |issn=2041-1723|doi-access=free }}</ref> Notably, they rule out the possibility of the Sun falling into a Maunder-minimum-like (inactive) state over the next decade. A preliminary consensus by a solar cycle 25 Prediction Panel was made in early 2019.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-preliminary-forecast|title=Solar Cycle 25 Preliminary Forecast |website=NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center}}</ref> The Panel, which was organized by NOAA's [[Space Weather Prediction Center]] (SWPC) and [[NASA]], based on the published solar cycle 25 predictions, concluded that solar cycle 25 will be very similar to solar cycle 24. They anticipate that the solar cycle minimum before cycle 25 will be long and deep, just as the minimum that preceded cycle 24. They expect solar maximum to occur between 2023 and 2026 with a sunspot range of 95 to 130, given in terms of the revised sunspot number. ==== Cycle 24 ==== {{Main|Solar cycle 24}} Solar cycle 24 began on 4 January 2008,<ref>{{Cite press release | author1= Bernhard Fleck | date= 14 January 2008 |url=http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Science/SOHO_the_new_solar_cycle_starts_with_a_bang |title=SOHO: the new solar cycle starts with a 'bang' |work=European Space Agency |access-date=2017-05-11 |language=en-GB}}</ref> with minimal activity until early 2010.<ref>{{Cite news |title=Solar Cycle 24 begins |date=2008-01-10 |author=Tony Phillips |url=https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/10jan_solarcycle24/ |work=NASA |access-date=2010-05-29 |archive-date=2021-02-28 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210228054909/https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/10jan_solarcycle24/ }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |title=As the Sun Awakens, NASA Keeps a Wary Eye on Space Weather |date=2010-06-04 |author=Tony Phillips |url=https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/04jun_swef/ |work=NASA |access-date=2013-05-18 |archive-date=2021-03-20 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210320221857/https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/04jun_swef }}</ref> The cycle featured a "double-peaked" [[solar maximum]]. The first peak reached 99 in 2011 and the second in early 2014 at 101.<ref>{{cite web |title=Solar Cycle Progression |website=NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center |url=http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression |access-date=2015-07-06}}</ref> Cycle 24 ended in December 2019 after 11.0 years.<ref name="Hello 25" /> ==== Cycle 23 ==== {{Main|Solar cycle 23}} Solar cycle 23 lasted 11.6 years, beginning in May 1996 and ending in January 2008. The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve-month period) observed during the solar cycle was 120.8 (March 2000), and the minimum was 1.7.<ref name="SIDC Monthly Smoothed Sunspot Number">{{Cite web|url=http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles|title=Sunspot Number | SILSO |website=www.sidc.be}}</ref> A total of 805 days had no sunspots during this cycle.<ref name="Spotless Days">{{cite web |title=Spotless Days |url=http://spaceweather.com/glossary/spotlessdays.htm?PHPSESSID=dli444kmrjgre0rjq6l86fv144}}</ref><ref name="What's Wrong with the Sun? (Nothing)">{{cite web |title=What's wrong with the Sun? (Nothing) more information: Spotless Days |url=https://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate.htm |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080714032353/https://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate.htm |archive-date=2008-07-14}}</ref><ref name="Solaemon's Spotless Days Page">{{cite web |title=Solaemon's Spotless Days Page |url=http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html |access-date=2015-08-15 |archive-date=2017-07-22 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170722234836/http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html }}</ref>
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