Editing Swing vote (section)

==Demographics within the United States==

An April 2016 poll by the Progressive Policy Institute<ref>{{Cite web |title=Swing Voters In Swing States Hold Balance In 2016 |url=https://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/2016.04-PPI-Poll_Swing-Voters-in-Swing-States-1.pdf}}</ref> examined voters in the U.S. states considered "battlegrounds" in the upcoming presidential election (Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada). Swing voters were slightly more likely to be women (52% women, 48% men) and slightly less likely to have a college degree (44%) than voters overall in these states (48%. By contrast, race was a significant determinant, especially for African-Americans. While 7% of poll respondents identified as African-American, only 2% of swing voters were African-American. Latinos (12% of poll respondents) were represented more proportionately (13% of swing voters).

<ref>{{Cite web |last=Brodnitz |first=Peter |date=April 2016 |title=Swing Voters In Swing States Hold Balance In 2016 |url=https://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/2016.04-PPI-Poll_Swing-Voters-in-Swing-States.pdf}}</ref>"Overall, white voters are likely to swing the outcome of a national election by an average of 10 percentage points—voting more Democratic in elections Democrats win and more Republican in elections Republicans win," according to a 2008 report by the Democratic Leadership Council. Most of this (6.7 of the 10 percentage points) is due to those white people who have only a high school education.

In mid-term and presidential elections from 1992 to 2014, people who self-identified as "gay, lesbian, or bisexual" voted consistently "around 75% Democratic within a range of 67 to 81%." In the 2016 presidential election, people who identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender cast 78% of their votes for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Election 2016 exit polls: votes by sexual orientation |url=https://www.statista.com/statistics/632026/voter-turnout-of-the-exit-polls-of-the-2016-elections-by-sexual-orientation/ |access-date=2024-12-10 |website=Statista |language=en}}</ref>

Among people who identify as gay and bisexual, men's support for Democratic candidates in the 1990s Congressional elections (held every two years from 1990 to 1998) was more consistent than women's. Across these five elections, men's support ranged from 67% to 75%, while women's support ranged from 53% to 82%. This suggests that [[lesbian]] and bisexual women may be more likely swing voters, at least over time, if not necessarily for any given election. There are also differences by state: "California GLB voters are more likely to identify as 'Independent' than are GLB voters nationally, and therefore have a greater potential to play the role of a swing vote in a close election."<ref name=wm/>

In the 2020 election, 30% of voters were considered swing voters. The swing votes in this election demographically were younger, ideologically moderate, disengaged in politics. [[Political apathy]] also plays a part in identifying swing voters. 24% of swing voters did not vote in the 2016 election and 22%  did not vote in the 2018 election. 18-29 year olds were the age group that had the highest percentage of swing voters - there was about the same number of swing voters as there were "decided voters". In the oldest age group of 65 and older, only 22% are considered swing voters. Another important data point from the 2020 election was that 39% of Swing Voters say they are paying "a lot" of attention to politics, compared to the 68% of decided voters that pay attention.

In the 2024 election, the Donald Trump political victory highlights how new voter groups can emerge that had been nearly unseen before. What now looks like a new group called "Barstool Conservatives" <ref>{{Cite web |last=Robertson |first=Derek |date=2021-06-20 |title=How Republicans Became the 'Barstool' Party |url=https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/06/20/barstool-sports-republican-politics-portnoy-trump-495221 |access-date=2024-12-09 |website=Politico |language=en}}</ref> would have been seen prior to the election as "swing voters" given their youth which would imply liberalism but male gender which would imply conservatism. But the continuing relevance of Donald Trump in American politics through the 2024 election, and potentially the future, highlights how a hypothetical "swing voter" can become the base demographic of a candidate almost instantaneously.