Editing World3 (section)

=== Reference run predictions ===
The ''Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World'' provides several different scenarios. The "reference run" is the one that "represent the most likely behavior mode of the system if the process of [[industrialization]] in the future proceeds in a way very similar to its progress in the past, and if technologies and value changes that have already been institutionalized continue to evolve."<ref name="Meadows et al.-1974">{{cite book|last1=Meadows|first1=Dennis L.|display-authors=etal|title=Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World|date=1974|publisher=MIT Press|location=Cambridge|isbn=0262131420|url=https://www.bookdepository.com/Dynamics-Growth-Finite-World-Dennis-L-Meadows/9780262131421|access-date=28 November 2017}}</ref>{{RP|502}} In this scenario, in 2000, the world population reaches six billion, and then goes on to peak at seven billion in 2030. After that population declines because of an increased death rate. In 2015, both industrial output per capita and food per capita peak at US$375 per person (1970s dollars, about ${{inflation|US|375|1972|fmt=c|r=-1}} today) and 500 vegetable-equivalent kilograms/person. Persistent pollution peaks in the year 2035 at 11 times 1970s levels.<ref name="Meadows et al.-1974"/>{{RP|500}}

[[File:Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg|thumb|World Model Standard Run as shown in The Limits to Growth]]