Editing Development communication (section)

===== Scenario construction =====
As a policy analysis tool, scenario construction (SC) describes a possible set of future conditions (Moniz, 2006<ref name=":9">{{cite book |chapter-url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/200002555 |doi=10.1007/0-387-28829-5_9|chapter=Scenario-Building Methods as a Tool for Policy Analysis|title=Innovative Comparative Methods for Policy Analysis|year=2006|last1=Moniz|first1=António Brandão|pages=185–209|isbn=0-387-28828-7}}</ref>) or hypothetical events that may occur in the future of a particular system (Allen, 1978, as cited by Flor, 1991). It has also been defined as a description of the conditions and events under which some system being studied is assumed to be operating (Kraemer, 1973, as cited by Flor, 1991). Scenarios provide an educated description of one of many possible futures of a system, usually presented at the most optimistic or "best-case" state and the most pessimistic or "worst-case" state.<ref name=":2" /> According to Moniz (2006), the most useful scenarios are those that display the conditions of important variables over time. In this approach, the quantitative underpinning enriches the narrative evolution of conditions or evolution of variables; narratives describe the important events and developments that shape the variables. In terms of innovative methods for policy analysis, the foresight and scenario construction methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences (Moniz, 2006<ref name=":9" />). Citing Allen (1978), Flor (1991) enumerates six steps in scenario construction, namely: (1) defining the system; (2) establishing a time period for the system to operate; (3) defining the external constraints on the environment of the system; (4) defining the elements or events within the system that are likely to increase or decrease the chances of the system's meeting its goals and objectives; (5) stating in probabilistic terms the likelihood of the occurrence of the elements or events; and (6) conducting a sensitive analysis of the results.