Editing Economic forecasting (section)

===Combining Forecasts===
Forecasts from multiple sources may be arithmetically combined and the result is often referred to as a [[consensus forecast]]. Private firms, central banks, and government agencies publish a large volume of forecast information to meet the strong demand for economic forecast data. Consensus Economics compiles the macroeconomic forecasts prepared by a variety of forecasters, and publishes them on a weekly and monthly basis. ''[[The Economist]]'' magazine regularly provides such a snapshot as well, for a narrower range of countries and variables.

Econometric studies have demonstrated that the use of past errors of each original forecast to determine the weights assigned to each forecast in the creation of a combined forecast results in a composite set of forecasts that generally yield to lower mean-square errors compared to either of the individual original forecasts.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bates |first1=J. M. |last2=Granger |first2=C. W. J. |year=1969 |title=The Combination of Forecasts |journal=Journal of the Operational Research Society |volume=20 |issue=4 |pages=451–468 |doi=10.1057/jors.1969.103 }}</ref> However, it has been found that the entry and exit of forecasters can have a substantial impact on the real-time effectiveness of conventional combination methods.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Capistrán |first1=Carlos |last2=Timmermann |first2=Allan |year=2009 |title=Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts |journal=Journal of Business & Economic Statistics |volume=27 |issue=4 |pages=428–440 |doi=10.1198/jbes.2009.07211 |s2cid=116453612 }}</ref> The dynamic nature of the forecasting combination and adjusting weighting techniques is not neutral.