Editing Ice sheet (section)

===Marine ice sheet instability===

In the 1970s, [[Johannes Weertman]] proposed that because [[seawater]] is denser than ice, then any ice sheets grounded below [[sea level]] inherently become less stable as they melt due to [[Archimedes' principle]].<ref name="Weertman1974" /> Effectively, these marine ice sheets must have enough mass to exceed the mass of the seawater displaced by the ice, which requires excess thickness. As the ice sheet melts and becomes thinner, the weight of the overlying ice decreases. At a certain point, sea water could force itself into the gaps which form at the base of the ice sheet, and ''marine ice sheet instability'' (MISI) would occur.<ref name="Weertman1974">{{Cite journal|last=Weertman|first=J.|date=1974|title=Stability of the Junction of an Ice Sheet and an Ice Shelf|journal=Journal of Glaciology|language=en|volume=13|issue=67|pages=3–11|doi=10.3189/S0022143000023327|issn=0022-1430|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="Pollard2015" />

Even if the ice sheet is grounded below the sea level, MISI cannot occur as long as there is a stable ice shelf in front of it.<ref name="Pattyn 2018" /> The boundary between the ice sheet and the ice shelf, known as the ''grounding line'', is particularly stable if it is constrained in an [[Bay|embayment]].<ref name="Pattyn 2018" /> In that case, the ice sheet may not be thinning at all, as the amount of ice flowing over the grounding line would be likely to match the annual accumulation of ice from snow upstream.<ref name="Pollard2015" /> Otherwise, ocean warming at the base of an ice shelf tends to thin it through basal melting. As the ice shelf becomes thinner, it exerts less of a buttressing effect on the ice sheet, the so-called back stress increases and the grounding line is pushed backwards.<ref name="Pollard2015" /> The ice sheet is likely to start losing more ice from the new location of the grounding line and so become lighter and less capable of displacing seawater. This eventually pushes the grounding line back even further, creating a [[Positive feedback|self-reinforcing mechanism]].<ref name="Pollard2015">{{cite journal|journal=Nature|volume=412|pages=112–121|year=2015|title=Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure |author=David Pollard |author2=Robert M. DeConto |author3=Richard B. Alley |doi=10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035|doi-access=free|bibcode=2015E&PSL.412..112P}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/cr/2016/06/22/marine-ice-sheet-instability-for-dummies-2/|title=Marine Ice Sheet Instability "For Dummies"|work=EGU|year=2016|author=David Docquier}}</ref>

====Vulnerable locations====

[[File:Dotto_2022_PIB_meltwater.png|thumb|Distribution of meltwater hotspots caused by ice losses in [[Pine Island Bay]], the location of both Thwaites (TEIS refers to Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf) and Pine Island Glaciers.<ref name="Dotto2022">{{Cite journal|last1=Dotto |first1=Tiago S. |last2=Heywood |first2=Karen J. |last3=Hall |first3=Rob A. |last4=Scambos |first4=Ted A. |last5=Zheng |first5=Yixi |last6=Nakayama |first6=Yoshihiro |last7=Hyogo |first7=Shuntaro |last8=Snow |first8=Tasha |last9=Wåhlin |first9=Anna K. |last10=Wild |first10=Christian |last11=Truffer |first11=Martin |last12=Muto |first12=Atsuhiro |last13=Alley |first13=Karen E. |last14=Boehme |first14=Lars |last15=Bortolotto |first15=Guilherme A. |last16=Tyler |first16=Scott W. |last17=Pettit |first17=Erin |date=21 December 2022 |title=Ocean variability beneath Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf driven by the Pine Island Bay Gyre strength| display-authors= 3 |journal=Nature Communications|language=en |volume=13 |issue=1 |page=7840 |doi=10.1038/s41467-022-35499-5 |pmid=36543787 |pmc=9772408 |bibcode=2022NatCo..13.7840D }}</ref>]]

Because the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet is grounded below the sea level, it would be vulnerable to geologically rapid ice loss in this scenario.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Mercer|first=J. H.|date=1978|title=West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster|journal=Nature|language=En|volume=271|issue=5643|pages=321–325|doi=10.1038/271321a0|issn=0028-0836|bibcode=1978Natur.271..321M|s2cid=4149290}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Vaughan|first=David G.|date=2008-08-20|title=West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm|journal=Climatic Change|language=en|volume=91|issue=1–2|pages=65–79|doi=10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3|bibcode=2008ClCh...91...65V|s2cid=154732005|issn=0165-0009|url=http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/769/1/The_return_of_a_paradigm_16_-_nora.pdf}}</ref> In particular, the [[Thwaites glacier|Thwaites]] and [[Pine Island glacier|Pine Island]] glaciers are most likely to be prone to MISI, and both glaciers have been rapidly thinning and accelerating in recent decades.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/after-decades-of-ice-loss-antarctica-is-now-hemorrhaging-mass/562748/|work=The Atlantic|year=2018|title=After Decades of Losing Ice, Antarctica Is Now Hemorrhaging It}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/ice-ocean-interactions/marine-ice-sheets/|work=AntarcticGlaciers.org|year=2014|title=Marine ice sheet instability}}</ref><ref name="Gardner 2018">{{Cite journal|last1=Gardner|first1=A. S.|last2=Moholdt|first2=G.|last3=Scambos|first3=T.|last4=Fahnstock|first4=M.|last5=Ligtenberg|first5=S.|last6=van den Broeke|first6=M.|last7=Nilsson|first7=J.|date=2018-02-13|title=Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years|journal=The Cryosphere|volume=12|issue=2|pages=521–547|doi=10.5194/tc-12-521-2018|bibcode=2018TCry...12..521G|issn=1994-0424|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|author1=IMBIE team|date=2018|title=Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017|journal=Nature|language=En|volume=558|issue=7709|pages=219–222|doi=10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y|issn=0028-0836|pmid=29899482|url=https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/225208|bibcode=2018Natur.558..219I|hdl=2268/225208|s2cid=49188002}}</ref> As a result, sea level rise from the ice sheet could be accelerated by tens of centimeters within the 21st century alone.<ref name="IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch.9">{{Cite journal |last1=Fox-Kemper |first1=B. |last2=Hewitt |first2=H.T.|author2-link=Helene Hewitt |last3=Xiao |first3=C. |last4=Aðalgeirsdóttir |first4=G. |last5=Drijfhout |first5=S.S. |last6=Edwards |first6=T.L. |last7=Golledge |first7=N.R. |last8=Hemer |first8=M. |last9=Kopp |first9=R.E. |last10=Krinner |first10=G. |last11=Mix |first11=A. |date=2021 |editor-last=Masson-Delmotte |editor-first=V. |editor2-last=Zhai |editor2-first=P. |editor3-last=Pirani |editor3-first=A. |editor4-last=Connors |editor4-first=S.L. |editor5-last=Péan |editor5-first=C. |editor6-last=Berger |editor6-first=S. |editor7-last=Caud |editor7-first=N. |editor8-last=Chen |editor8-first=Y. |editor9-last=Goldfarb |editor9-first=L. |title=Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change |journal=Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter09.pdf |publisher=Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA |pages=1270–1272 }}</ref>

The majority of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet would not be affected. [[Totten Glacier]] is the largest glacier there which is known to be subject to MISI - yet, its potential contribution to sea level rise is comparable to that of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Young|first1=Duncan A.|last2=Wright|first2=Andrew P.|last3=Roberts|first3=Jason L.|last4=Warner|first4=Roland C.|last5=Young|first5=Neal W.|last6=Greenbaum|first6=Jamin S.|last7=Schroeder|first7=Dustin M.|last8=Holt|first8=John W.|last9=Sugden|first9=David E.|date=2011-06-02|title=A dynamic early East Antarctic Ice Sheet suggested by ice-covered fjord landscapes|journal=Nature|language=En|volume=474|issue=7349|pages=72–75|doi=10.1038/nature10114|pmid=21637255|issn=0028-0836|bibcode=2011Natur.474...72Y|s2cid=4425075}}</ref> Totten Glacier has been losing mass nearly monotonically in recent decades,<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Mohajerani|first=Yara|date=2018|title=Mass Loss of Totten and Moscow University Glaciers, East Antarctica, Using Regionally Optimized GRACE Mascons|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|volume=45|issue=14|pages=7010–7018|doi=10.1029/2018GL078173|bibcode=2018GeoRL..45.7010M|s2cid=134054176 |url=https://escholarship.org/uc/item/21c3r9dv|doi-access=free}}</ref> suggesting rapid retreat is possible in the near future, although the dynamic behavior of Totten Ice Shelf is known to vary on seasonal to interannual timescales.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Greene|first1=Chad A.|last2=Young|first2=Duncan A.|last3=Gwyther|first3=David E.|last4=Galton-Fenzi|first4=Benjamin K.|last5=Blankenship|first5=Donald D.|date=2018|title=Seasonal dynamics of Totten Ice Shelf controlled by sea ice buttressing|journal=The Cryosphere|language=en|volume=12|issue=9|pages=2869–2882|doi=10.5194/tc-12-2869-2018|issn=1994-0416|doi-access=free|bibcode=2018TCry...12.2869G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Roberts|first1=Jason|last2=Galton-Fenzi|first2=Benjamin K.|last3=Paolo|first3=Fernando S.|last4=Donnelly|first4=Claire|last5=Gwyther|first5=David E.|last6=Padman|first6=Laurie|last7=Young|first7=Duncan|last8=Warner|first8=Roland|last9=Greenbaum|first9=Jamin|date=2017-08-23|title=Ocean forced variability of Totten Glacier mass loss|journal=Geological Society, London, Special Publications|volume=461|issue=1|pages=175–186|doi=10.1144/sp461.6|issn=0305-8719|url=https://eprints.utas.edu.au/25611/1/SP461.6.full.pdf|bibcode=2018GSLSP.461..175R|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Greene|first1=Chad A.|last2=Blankenship|first2=Donald D.|last3=Gwyther|first3=David E.|last4=Silvano|first4=Alessandro|last5=Wijk|first5=Esmee van|date=2017-11-01|title=Wind causes Totten Ice Shelf melt and acceleration|journal=Science Advances|language=en|volume=3|issue=11|pages=e1701681|doi=10.1126/sciadv.1701681|issn=2375-2548|pmc=5665591|pmid=29109976|bibcode=2017SciA....3E1681G}}</ref> The Wilkes Basin is the only major submarine basin in Antarctica that is not thought to be sensitive to warming.<ref name="Gardner 2018" /> Ultimately, even geologically rapid sea level rise would still most likely require several millennia for the entirety of these ice masses (WAIS and the subglacial basins) to be lost.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Armstrong McKay |first1=David|last2=Abrams |first2=Jesse |last3=Winkelmann |first3=Ricarda  |last4=Sakschewski |first4=Boris  |last5=Loriani |first5=Sina  |last6=Fetzer |first6=Ingo|last7=Cornell|first7=Sarah |last8=Rockström |first8=Johan |last9=Staal |first9=Arie |last10=Lenton |first10=Timothy |date=9 September 2022 |title=Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 |journal=Science |language=en |volume=377 |issue=6611 |pages=eabn7950 |doi=10.1126/science.abn7950 |pmid=36074831 |hdl=10871/131584 |s2cid=252161375 |issn=0036-8075|hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Explainer">{{Cite web |last=Armstrong McKay |first=David |date=9 September 2022 |title=Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points – paper explainer |url=https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping-points-reassessment-explainer/ |access-date=2 October 2022 |website=climatetippingpoints.info |language=en}}</ref>

==== Marine ice cliff instability ====

[[File:West Antarctic Collapse.ogv|thumb|A collage of footage and animation to explain the changes that are occurring on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, narrated by glaciologist [[Eric Rignot]]]]

A related process known as ''Marine Ice Cliff Instability'' (MICI) posits that ice cliffs which exceed ~{{cvt|90|m|ft|frac=2}} in above-ground height and are ~{{cvt|800|m|ft|frac=2}} in basal (underground) height are likely to collapse under their own weight once the peripheral ice stabilizing them is gone.<ref name="Zhang2022" /> Their collapse then exposes the ice masses following them to the same instability, potentially resulting in a self-sustaining cycle of cliff collapse and rapid ice sheet retreat - i.e. sea level rise of a meter or more by 2100 from Antarctica alone.<ref name="Pollard2015" /><ref name="DeConto2016" /><ref name="Pattyn 2018">{{Cite journal |last=Pattyn |first=Frank |author-link=Frank Pattyn |date=2018 |title=The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling |journal=Nature Communications |language=En |volume=9 |issue=1 |page=2728 |bibcode=2018NatCo...9.2728P |doi=10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z |issn=2041-1723 |pmc=6048022 |pmid=30013142}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Dow|first1=Christine F.|last2=Lee|first2=Won Sang|last3=Greenbaum|first3=Jamin S.|last4=Greene|first4=Chad A.|last5=Blankenship|first5=Donald D.|last6=Poinar|first6=Kristin|last7=Forrest|first7=Alexander L.|last8=Young|first8=Duncan A.|last9=Zappa|first9=Christopher J.|date=2018-06-01|title=Basal channels drive active surface hydrology and transverse ice shelf fracture|journal=Science Advances|language=en|volume=4|issue=6|pages=eaao7212|doi=10.1126/sciadv.aao7212|issn=2375-2548|pmc=6007161|pmid=29928691|bibcode=2018SciA....4.7212D}}</ref> This theory had been highly influential - in a 2020 survey of 106 experts, the paper which had advanced this theory was considered more important than even the year 2014 [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report]].<ref name="Horton2020">{{Cite journal |last1=Horton |first1=Benjamin P. |last2=Khan |first2=Nicole S. |last3=Cahill |first3=Niamh |last4=Lee |first4=Janice S. H. |last5=Shaw |first5=Timothy A. |last6=Garner |first6=Andra J. |last7=Kemp |first7=Andrew C. |last8=Engelhart |first8=Simon E. |last9=Rahmstorf |first9=Stefan |date=2020-05-08 |title=Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey |journal=npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |volume=3 |issue=1 |page=18 |doi=10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5 |bibcode=2020npCAS...3...18H |s2cid=218541055 |hdl=10356/143900 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> Sea level rise projections which involve MICI are much larger than the others, particularly under high warming rate.<ref name="Slangen2022">{{cite journal |last1=Slangen |first1=A. B. A. |last2=Haasnoot |first2=M. |last3=Winter |first3=G. |date=30 March 2022 |title=Rethinking Sea-Level Projections Using Families and Timing Differences |journal=Earth's Future |volume=10 |issue=4 |page=e2021EF002576 |doi=10.1029/2021EF002576 |bibcode=2022EaFut..1002576S |url=https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/00/378000.pdf }}</ref>

At the same time, this theory has also been highly controversial.<ref name="Zhang2022">{{Cite conference |last=Zhang |first=Zhe |date=7 November 2021 |title=Reviewing the elements of marine ice cliff instability |conference=The International Conference on Materials Chemistry and Environmental Engineering (CONF-MCEE 2021) |location=California, United States |journal=Journal of Physics: Conference Series |volume=2152 |doi=10.1088/1742-6596/2152/1/012057 |doi-access=free }}</ref> It was originally proposed in order to describe how the large sea level rise during the [[Pliocene]] and the [[Last Interglacial]] could have occurred<ref name="Zhang2022" /><ref name="DeConto2016">{{Cite journal |last1=DeConto |first1=Robert M. |last2=Pollard |first2=David |date=30 March 2016 |title=Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise |journal=Nature |language=en |volume=531 |issue=7596 |pages=591–597 |doi=10.1038/nature17145 |pmid=27029274 |bibcode=2016Natur.531..591D |s2cid=205247890 }}</ref> - yet more recent research found that these sea level rise episodes can be explained without any ice cliff instability taking place.<ref name="Gilford2020" /><ref name="Zhang2022" /><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Edwards |first1=Tamsin L. |last2=Brandon |first2=Mark A. |last3=Durand |first3=Gael |last4=Edwards |first4=Neil R. |last5=Golledge |first5=Nicholas R. |last6=Holden |first6=Philip B. |last7=Nias |first7=Isabel J.|last8=Payne |first8=Antony J. |last9=Ritz |first9=Catherine |last10=Wernecke |first10=Andreas |date=6 February 2019 |title=Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability |journal=Nature |language=en |volume=566 |issue=7742 |pages=58–64 |doi=10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 |pmid=30728522 |bibcode=2019Natur.566...58E |s2cid=59606547 |issn=1476-4687 |hdl=1983/de5e9847-612f-42fb-97b0-5d7ff43d37b8 |url=https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/1/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf |hdl-access=free}}</ref> Research in [[Pine Island Bay]] in [[West Antarctica]] (the location of [[Thwaites Glacier|Thwaites]] and [[Pine Island Glacier]]) had found [[seabed gouging by ice]] from the [[Younger Dryas]] period which appears consistent with MICI.<ref name="Wise2017" /><ref name="Gilford2020" /> However, it indicates "relatively rapid" yet still prolonged ice sheet retreat, with a movement of >{{cvt|200|km|mi}} inland taking place over an estimated 1100 years <!-- Do the math ... or, "see" (e.g.), https://www.google.com/search?q=(-12%2C300)+-+(-11%2C200)+%3D -->(from ~12,300 years [[Before Present]] to ~11,200 B.P.)<ref name="Wise2017">{{Cite journal |last1=Wise |first1=Matthew G. |last2=Dowdeswell |first2=Julian A. |last3=Jakobsson |first3=Martin |last4=Larter |first4=Robert D. |date=October 2017 |title=Evidence of marine ice-cliff instability in Pine Island Bay from iceberg-keel plough marks |url=https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/514800/1/Nature_final_accepted_ms.pdf |journal=Nature |language=en |volume=550 |issue=7677 |pages=506–510 |doi=10.1038/nature24458 |pmid=29072274 |bibcode=2017Natur.550..506W |issn=0028-0836 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200506155034/https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/514800/1/Nature_final_accepted_ms.pdf |archive-date=May 6, 2020}}</ref>

[[File:Schlemm 2022 MICI embayment.png|thumb|left|If MICI can occur, the structure of the glacier [[embayment]] (viewed from the top) would do a lot to determine how quickly it may proceed. Bays which are deep or narrow towards the exit would experience much less rapid retreat than the opposite<ref name="Schlemm2022" />]]

In recent years, 2002-2004 fast retreat of [[Crane Glacier]] immediately after the collapse of the [[Larsen B]] ice shelf (before it reached a shallow [[fjord]] and stabilized) could have involved MICI, but there weren't enough observations to confirm or refute this theory.<ref name="Needell2023">{{cite journal |last1=Needell |first1=C. |last2=Holschuh |first2=N.  |date=20 January 2023 |title=Evaluating the Retreat, Arrest, and Regrowth of Crane Glacier Against Marine Ice Cliff Process Models |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=50 |issue=4 |page=e2022GL102400 |doi=10.1029/2022GL102400 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2023GeoRL..5002400N }}</ref> The retreat of [[Greenland ice sheet]]'s three largest glaciers - [[Jakobshavn Glacier|Jakobshavn]], [[Helheim Glacier|Helheim]], and [[Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier]] - did not resemble predictions from ice cliff collapse at least up until the end of 2013,<ref name="Gilford2020" /><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Olsen |first1=Kira G. |last2=Nettles |first2=Meredith |date=8 June 2019 |title=Constraints on Terminus Dynamics at Greenland Glaciers From Small Glacial Earthquakes |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface |volume=124 |issue=7 |pages=1899–1918 |doi=10.1029/2019JF005054 |bibcode=2019JGRF..124.1899O }}</ref> but an event observed at Helheim Glacier in August 2014 may fit the definition.<ref name="Gilford2020" /><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Parizek |first1=Byron R. |last2=Christianson |first2=Knut |last3=Alley |first3=Richard B. |last4=Voytenko |first4=Denis |last5=Vaňková |first5=Irena |last6=Dixon |first6=Timothy H. |last7=Walker |first7=Ryan T. |last8=Holland |first8=David M. |date=22 March 2019 |title=Ice-cliff failure via retrogressive slumping |journal=Geology |volume=47 |issue=5 |pages=449–452 |doi=10.1130/G45880.1 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2019Geo....47..449P }}</ref> Further, modelling done after the initial hypothesis indicates that ice-cliff instability would require implausibly fast ice shelf collapse (i.e. within an hour for ~{{cvt|90|m|ft|frac=2}}-tall cliffs),<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Clerc |first1=Fiona |last2=Minchew |first2=Brent M. |last3=Behn |first3=Mark D. |date=21 October 2019 |title=Marine Ice Cliff Instability Mitigated by Slow Removal of Ice Shelves |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=50 |issue=4 |pages=e2022GL102400 |doi=10.1029/2019GL084183 |bibcode=2019GeoRL..4612108C |hdl=1912/25343 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> unless the ice had already been substantially damaged beforehand.<ref name="Needell2023" /> Further, ice cliff breakdown would produce a large number of debris in the coastal waters - known as [[ice mélange]] - and multiple studies indicate their build-up would slow or even outright stop the instability soon after it started.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.sciencenews.org/article/climate-marine-ice-cliffs-sheets-collapse-not-inevitable-sea-level|title=Collapse may not always be inevitable for marine ice cliffs|last1=Perkins|first1=Sid|date=17 June 2021|access-date=9 January 2023|agency=ScienceNews}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Bassis |first1=J. N. |last2=Berg |first2=B. |last3=Crawford |first3=A. J. |last4=Benn |first4=D. I. |date=18 June 2021 |title=Transition to marine ice cliff instability controlled by ice thickness gradients and velocity |journal=Science |language=en |volume=372 |issue=6548 |pages=1342–1344 |doi=10.1126/science.abf6271 |pmid=34140387 |bibcode=2021Sci...372.1342B |hdl=10023/23422 |issn=0036-8075|hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Crawford |first1=Anna J. |last2=Benn |first2=Douglas I. |last3=Todd |first3=Joe |last4=Åström |first4=Jan A. |last5=Bassis |first5=Jeremy N. |last6=Zwinger |first6=Thomas |date=11 May 2021 |title=Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization |journal=Nature Communications |volume=12 |issue=1 |page=2701 |doi=10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7 |pmid=33976208 |pmc=8113328 |bibcode=2021NatCo..12.2701C |hdl=10023/23200 |hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Schlemm2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Schlemm |first1=Tanja |last2=Feldmann |first2=Johannes |last3=Winkelmann |first3=Ricarda |last4=Levermann |first4=Anders |date=24 May 2022 |title=Stabilizing effect of mélange buttressing on the marine ice-cliff instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |journal=The Cryosphere |volume=16 |issue=5 |pages=1979–1996 |doi=10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022TCry...16.1979S }}</ref>

Some scientists  - including the originators of the hypothesis, Robert DeConto and David Pollard - have suggested that the best way to resolve the question would be to precisely determine sea level rise during the [[Last Interglacial]].<ref name="Gilford2020" /> MICI can be effectively ruled out if SLR at the time was lower than {{cvt|4|m|ft|frac=2}}, while it is very likely if the SLR was greater than {{cvt|6|m|ft|frac=2}}.<ref name="Gilford2020">{{cite journal |last1=Gilford |first1=Daniel M. |last2=Ashe |first2=Erica L. |last3=DeConto |first3=Robert M. |last4=Kopp |first4=Robert E. |last5=Pollard |first5=David |last6=Rovere |first6=Alessio |date=5 October 2020 |title=Could the Last Interglacial Constrain Projections of Future Antarctic Ice Mass Loss and Sea-Level Rise? |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface |volume=124 |issue=7 |pages=1899–1918 |doi=10.1029/2019JF005418 |bibcode=2020JGRF..12505418G |hdl=10278/3749063 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> As of 2023, the most recent analysis indicates that the Last Interglacial SLR is unlikely to have been higher than {{cvt|2.7|m|ft|frac=2}},<ref name="Dumitru2023" /> as higher values in other research, such as {{cvt|5.7|m|ft|frac=2}},<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Barnett |first1=Robert L. |last2=Austermann |first2=Jacqueline |last3=Dyer |first3=Blake |last4=Telfer |first4=Matt W. |last5=Barlow |first5=Natasha L. M. |last6=Boulton |first6=Sarah J. |last7=Carr |first7=Andrew S. |last8=Creel |first8=Roger |date=15 September 2023 |title=Constraining the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Last Interglacial sea level |journal=Science Advances |volume=9 |issue=27 |pages=eadf0198 |doi=10.1126/sciadv.adf0198 |pmid=37406130 |pmc=10321746 |bibcode=2023SciA....9F.198B }}</ref> appear inconsistent with the new [[paleoclimate]] data from [[The Bahamas]] and the known history of the Greenland Ice Sheet.<ref name="Dumitru2023">{{cite journal |last1=Dumitru |first1=Oana A. |last2=Dyer |first2=Blake |last3=Austermann |first3=Jacqueline |last4=Sandstrom |first4=Michael R. |last5=Goldstein |first5=Steven L. |last6=D'Andrea |first6=William J. |last7=Cashman |first7=Miranda |last8=Creel |first8=Roger |last9=Bolge |first9=Louise |last10=Raymo |first10=Maureen E. |date=15 September 2023 |title=Last interglacial global mean sea level from high-precision U-series ages of Bahamian fossil coral reefs |journal=Quaternary Science Reviews |volume=318 |page=108287 |doi=10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108287 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2023QSRv..31808287D }}</ref>