Editing Science studies (section)

=== Science studies on volcanology ===
[[File:Soufrière Hills volcanic aftermath (Aerial views, Montserrat, 2007) 02.jpg|thumb|The aftermath of the 2007 [[Soufrière Hills]] eruption in Montserrat]]

Donovan et al. (2012) used social studies of [[volcanology]] to investigate the generation of knowledge and expert advice on various active volcanoes.<ref name=vulc>Amy Donovan, Clive Oppenheimer, Michael Bravo. Social studies of volcanology: knowledge generation and expert advice on active volcanoes. Bulletin of Volcanology, Springer Verlag (Germany), 2012, 74 (3), pp.677-689. doi:<10.1007/s00445-011-0547-z insu-00691620</ref> It contains a survey of volcanologists carried out during 2008 and 2009 and interviews with scientists in the [[List of volcanoes in the United Kingdom|UK]], [[Soufrière Hills|Montserrat]], [[Volcanism of Italy|Italy]] and [[Volcanism of Iceland|Iceland]] during fieldwork seasons. Donovan et al. (2012) asked the experts about the felt purpose of volcanology and what they considered the most important eruptions in historical time. The survey tries to identify eruptions that had an influence on volcanology as a science and to assess the role of scientists in policymaking.<ref name=vulc/>

A main focus was on the impact of the Montserrat eruption 1997. The eruption, a classical example of the [[black swan theory]]<ref>Donovan et al. (2012) cite Taleb NN (2007) The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable. Allen Lane, London.</ref> directly killed (only) 19 persons. However the outbreak had major impacts on the local society and destroyed important infrastructure, as the [[W. H. Bramble Airport|island's airport]].<ref>{{cite news |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/country_profiles/3666502.stm |title=BBC country profile: Montserrat |access-date=2008-03-08 | date=22 September 2009 | work=BBC News}}</ref> About 7,000 people, or two-thirds of the population, left Montserrat; 4,000 to the United Kingdom.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4237882.stm |date=12 September 2005 |title=Montserrat evacuation remembered |publisher=BBC |access-date= 19 November 2010}}</ref>

The Montserrat case put immense pressure on volcanologists, as their expertise suddenly became the primary driver of various public policy approaches.<ref name=vulc/> The science studies approach provided valuable insights in that situation.<ref name=vulc/> There were various miscommunications among scientists. Matching scientific uncertainty (typical of volcanic unrest) and the request for a single unified voice for political advice was a challenge.<ref name=vulc/> The Montserrat Volcanologists began to use statistical elicitation models to estimate the probabilities of particular events, a rather subjective method, but allowing to synthesizing consensus and experience-based expertise step by step.<ref name=vulc/> It involved as well local knowledge and experience.<ref name=vulc/>

[[Volcanology]] as a science currently faces a shift of its epistemological foundations of volcanology. The science started to involve more research into risk assessment and risk management. It requires new, integrated methodologies for knowledge collection that transcend scientific disciplinary boundaries but combine qualitative and quantitative outcomes in a structured whole.<ref>Horlick-Jones T, Sime J (2004) Living on the border: knowledge, risk and transdisciplinarity. Futures 36(4):441</ref>