Editing Superintelligence (section)

=== Potential path through transformer models ===

Recent advancements in transformer-based models have led some researchers to speculate that the path to ASI might lie in scaling up and improving these architectures. This view suggests that continued improvements in transformer models or similar architectures could lead directly to ASI.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Sutskever |first1=Ilya |title=A Brief History of Scaling |journal=ACM Queue |volume=21 |issue=4 |year=2023 |pages=31–43 |doi=10.1145/3595878.3605016|doi-broken-date=1 November 2024 }}</ref>

Some experts even argue that current large language models like GPT-4 may already exhibit early signs of AGI or ASI capabilities.<ref>{{Cite arXiv |last1=Bubeck |first1=Sébastien |last2=Chandrasekaran |first2=Varun |last3=Eldan |first3=Ronen |last4=Gehrke |first4=Johannes |last5=Horvitz |first5=Eric |last6=Kamar |first6=Ece |last7=Lee |first7=Peter |last8=Lee |first8=Yin Tat |last9=Li |first9=Yuanzhi |last10=Lundberg |first10=Scott |last11=Nori |first11=Harsha |last12=Palangi |first12=Hamid |last13=Precup |first13=Doina |last14=Sountsov |first14=Pavel |last15=Srivastava |first15=Sanjana |last16=Tessler |first16=Catherine |last17=Tian |first17=Jianfeng |last18=Zaheer |first18=Manzil |title=Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4 |date=22 March 2023|class=cs.CL |eprint=2303.12712 }}</ref> This perspective suggests that the transition from current AI to ASI might be more continuous and rapid than previously thought, blurring the lines between narrow AI, AGI, and ASI.

However, this view remains controversial. Critics argue that current models, while impressive, still lack crucial aspects of general intelligence such as true understanding, reasoning, and adaptability across diverse domains.<ref>{{Cite arXiv |last1=Marcus |first1=Gary |title=The Next Decade in AI: Four Steps Towards Robust Artificial Intelligence |year=2020|class=cs.AI |eprint=2002.06177 }}</ref>

The debate over whether the path to ASI will involve a distinct AGI phase or a more direct scaling of current technologies remains ongoing, with significant implications for AI development strategies and safety considerations.