Editing Swing state (section)

==Swing states by results==
{{See also|Tipping-point state}}
This is a chart of swing states using the methodology of [[Nate Silver]] for determining tipping point states, but including the other states in close contention in recent elections, ranked by margin of victory.<ref name="strategy">{{cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |title=Donald Trump Had A Superior Electoral College Strategy |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ |website=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|access-date=February 26, 2019 |date=February 6, 2017}}</ref> In this method, states and DC are ordered by margin of victory, then tabulating which states were required to get to 270+ electoral votes in margin order. The tipping point state, and the next 10 states with close margins on each side, are shown as the swing states in retrospect, along with the "bias" which is the difference between the final margin in the tipping point state and final popular vote margin. This takes into account inherent electoral college advantages; for example, Michigan was the closest state in 2016 by result, and Nevada was the closest state to the national popular vote result, but the tipping points that most mattered for assembling a 270 electoral vote coalition were Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.<ref name="strategy" />
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Swing states and tipping point states in presidential elections, 2004–2024
|-
!  [[2024 United States presidential election|2024 election]] !! Margin !! [[2020 United States presidential election|2020 election]] !! Margin !! [[2016 United States presidential election|2016 election]] !! Margin !! [[2012 United States presidential election|2012 election]] !! Margin !! [[2008 United States presidential election|2008 election]] !! Margin !! [[2004 United States presidential election|2004 election]] !! Margin
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey|New Jersey]] || 5.91%D || {{nowrap|[[2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 7.35%D || [[2016 United States presidential election in Maine|Maine]] || 2.96%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2012 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 6.94%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 12.49%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 2.50%D
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in Virginia|Virginia]] || 5.78%D || [[2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota|Minnesota]] || 7.11%D || [[2016 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] || 2.42%D || [[2012 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] || 6.68%D || [[2008 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] || 10.32%D || {{nowrap|[[2004 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 1.37%D
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota|Minnesota]] || 4.24%D || [[2020 United States presidential election in Michigan|Michigan]] || 2.78%D || [[2016 United States presidential election in Minnesota|Minnesota]] || 1.52%D || [[2012 United States presidential election in Iowa|Iowa]] || 5.81%D || [[2008 United States presidential election in Minnesota|Minnesota]] || 10.24%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]] || 0.38%D
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| {{nowrap|[[2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 2.78%D || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2020 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] || 2.39%D || {{nowrap|[[2016 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 0.37%D || {{nowrap|[[2012 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 5.58%D || {{nowrap|[[2008 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 9.61%D ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| [[2004 United States presidential election in Iowa|Iowa]] ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| 0.67%R
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| {{Party shading/Republican}}|[[2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]] || {{Party shading/Republican}}|0.87%R || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] || 1.16%D  || {{Party shading/Republican}}| [[2016 United States presidential election in Michigan|Michigan]] ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| 0.23%R || [[2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] || 5.38%D || [[2008 United States presidential election in Iowa|Iowa]] || 9.53%D ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| [[2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico|New Mexico]] ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| 0.79%R
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| {{Party shading/Republican}}|[[2024 United States presidential election in Michigan|Michigan]] || {{Party shading/Republican}}|1.41%R || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| '''[[2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]]'''<ref name="tp2020" group="note">If Donald Trump were able to hold onto Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, the result would have been a 269–269 electoral tie decided in the House of Representatives.  Wisconsin is the tipping point for Biden's coalition; to avoid needing Congress, Trump would have to have won Pennsylvania as well, although Trump would have been favored in the House due to the tie-breaking rules specified in the [[Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution|Twelfth Amendment]].</ref> || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| 0.63%D || {{Party shading/Republican}}| '''[[2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]]'''<ref name="tp2016" group="note"/> ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| 0.72%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| '''[[2012 United States presidential election in Colorado|Colorado]]''' ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 5.36%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| '''[[2008 United States presidential election in Colorado|Colorado]]''' ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 8.95%D ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| '''[[2004 United States presidential election in Ohio|Ohio]]''' ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| 2.11%R
|-{{Party shading/Republican}}
| '''[[2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]]''' || 1.71%R || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2020 United States presidential election in Arizona|Arizona]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 0.31%D || '''[[2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]]'''<ref name="tp2016" group="note">The 2016 election had two possible tipping point states, depending on how they are calculated.  If [[faithless elector]]s are ignored, then Wisconsin was the tipping point in 2016; if they are included, then Donald Trump's loss of 2 EV's from faithless electors means that Pennsylvania is also required for his coalition to reach 270 electoral votes, while Hillary Clinton's loss of 5 EV's does not change that Wisconsin remains the tipping point for her potential coalition.</ref> || 0.77%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2012 United States presidential election in Virginia|Virginia]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 3.88%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in Virginia|Virginia]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 6.30%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] || 2.59%R
|-{{Party shading/Republican}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in Georgia|Georgia]] || 2.20%R || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2020 United States presidential election in Georgia|Georgia]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 0.24%D  || [[2016 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] || 1.20%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2012 United States presidential election in Ohio|Ohio]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 2.98%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in Ohio|Ohio]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 4.59%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Colorado|Colorado]] || 4.67%R
|-{{Party shading/Republican}}
|[[2024 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] || 3.10%R || [[2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]] || 1.35%R || [[2016 United States presidential election in Arizona|Arizona]] || 3.55%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2012 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 0.88%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 2.82%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] || 5.01%R
|-{{Party shading/Republican}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]] || 3.21%R || [[2020 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] || 3.36%R|| [[2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]] || 3.66%R || [[2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]] || 2.04%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in Indiana|Indiana]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 1.03%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Missouri|Missouri]] || 7.20%R
|-{{Party shading/Republican}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in Arizona|Arizona]] || 5.53%R || [[2020 United States presidential election in Texas|Texas]] || 5.58%R || [[2016 United States presidential election in Georgia|Georgia]] || 5.13%R || [[2012 United States presidential election in Georgia|Georgia]] || 7.82%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 0.33%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Virginia|Virginia]] || 8.20%R
|-
| ''National'' || 1.48%R || ''National'' || 4.45%D || ''National'' || 2.10%D || ''National'' || 3.86%D || ''National'' || 7.27%D || ''National'' || 2.46%R
|-
| ''Bias'' || 0.23%R || ''Bias'' || 3.82%R || ''Bias'' || 2.87%R || ''Bias'' || 1.51%D || ''Bias'' || 1.68%D || ''Bias'' || 0.35%D
|}

{{reflist|group=note}}