Editing Technological singularity (section)

==Predictions==
[[File:Performance of AI models on various benchmarks from 1998 to 2024.png|upright=1.25|thumb|Progress of AI performance on various benchmarks compared to human-level performance.<ref>{{Cite web |date=17 May 2024 |title=International scientific report on the safety of advanced AI: interim report |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-scientific-report-on-the-safety-of-advanced-ai |access-date= |website=GOV.UK |page=26 |language=en}}</ref>]]
There have been numerous dates predicted for the attainment of singularity.

In 1965, [[I. J. Good|Good]] wrote that it was more probable than not that an ultra-intelligent machine would be built within the twentieth century.<ref name="good1965" />

That computing capabilities for human-level AI would be available in supercomputers before 2010 was predicted in 1988 by [[Hans Moravec|Moravec]], assuming that the current rate of improvement continued.<ref name="moravec1988" />

The attainment of greater-than-human intelligence between 2005 and 2030 was predicted by [[Vernor Vinge|Vinge]] in 1993.<ref name="vinge1993" />

A singularity in 2021 was predicted by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky|Yudkowsky]] in 1996.<ref name="yudkowsky1996" />

Human-level AI around 2029 and the singularity in 2045 was predicted by Kurzweil in 2005.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2015-01-22 |title=List of Analyses of Time to Human-Level AI |url=https://aiimpacts.org/list-of-analyses-of-time-to-human-level-ai/ |access-date=2023-06-14 |website=AI Impacts |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=Kurzweil |first=Ray |title=The Singularity Is Near |publisher=Penguin Group |year=2005 |pages=120}}</ref> He reaffirmed these predictions in 2024 in [[The Singularity Is Nearer|''The Singularity is Nearer'']].<ref>{{Cite book |last=Kurzweil |first=Ray |url=https://www.worldcat.org/title/on1438926317 |title=The singularity is nearer: when we merge with Al |date=2024 |publisher=Viking |isbn=978-0-399-56276-1 |location=New York |oclc=on1438926317}}</ref>

Human-level AI by 2040, and intelligence far beyond human by 2050 was predicted in 1998 by Moravec, revising his earlier prediction.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Moravec |first=Hans P. |url=https://philpapers.org/rec/MORRMM |title=Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind |date=1998 |publisher=Oxford University Press USA |language=en}}</ref>

A confidence of 50% that [[artificial general intelligence|human-level AI]] would be developed by 2040–2050 was the outcome of four polls of AI researchers, conducted in 2012 and 2013 by [[Nick Bostrom|Bostrom]] and [[Vincent C. Müller|Müller]].<ref name="newyorker">{{cite news|last1=Khatchadourian|first1=Raffi|title=The Doomsday Invention|url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom|access-date=31 January 2018|magazine=The New Yorker|date=16 November 2015|archive-date=29 April 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190429183807/https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. (2016). "Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion". In V. C. Müller (ed): ''Fundamental issues of artificial intelligence'' (pp. 555–572). Berlin, Germany: Springer Berlin. http://philpapers.org/rec/MLLFPI {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190302090534/https://philpapers.org/rec/MLLFPI|date=2019-03-02}}.</ref>

[[Elon Musk]] in March 2025 predicted that AI would be smarter than any individual human "in the next year or two" and that AI would be smarter than all humans combined by 2029 or 2030, along with an 80 percent chance that AI would have a “good outcome,” while there was a 20 percent chance of “annihilation.”<ref>{{Cite web |last=Bidgood |first=Jess |last2=Nehamas |first2=Nicholas |date=3 March 2025 |title=Social Security and Sex Robots: Musk Veers Off Script With Joe Rogan |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/us/politics/elon-musk-joe-rogan-podcast.html |access-date=3 March 2025 |website=New York Times}}</ref>