Editing Thought experiment (section)

==Types==
[[File:The Prefactual Thought Experiment.jpg|thumb|right|Temporal representation of a prefactual thought experiment<ref>{{Cite thesis |last=Yeates |first=Lindsay Bertram |title=Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach |date=2004 |url=http://archive.org/details/TECA2004 |page=143}}</ref>]]
Generally speaking, there are seven types of thought experiments in which one reasons from causes to effects, or effects to causes:<ref>{{Cite thesis |last=Yeates |first=Lindsay Bertram |title=Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach |date=2004 |url=http://archive.org/details/TECA2004 |page=138-159}}</ref><ref>[https://fortuneonline.org/articles/application-of-digital-twin-and-heuristic-computer-reasoning-to-workflow.pdf Garbey, M., Joerger, G. & Furr, S. (2023), "Application of Digital Twin and Heuristic Computer Reasoning to Workflow Management: Gastroenterology Outpatient Centers Study", ''Journal of Surgery and Research'', Vol.6, No.1, pp.&nbsp;104–129.]</ref>

===Prefactual===
''Prefactual (before the fact) thought experiments'' – the term '''[[Defensive pessimism#Prefactual thinking|prefactual]]''' was coined by Lawrence J. Sanna in 1998<ref>Sanna, L.J., "Defensive Pessimism and Optimism: The Bitter-Sweet Influence of Mood on Performance and Prefactual and Counterfactual Thinking", ''Cognition and Emotion'', Vol.12, No.5, (September 1998), pp. 635–665. (Sanna used the term ''prefactual'' to distinguish these sorts of thought experiment from both ''semifactuals'' and ''counterfactuals''.)</ref> – speculate on possible future outcomes, given the present, and ask "What will be the outcome if event E occurs?".<ref>See Yeates, Lindsay Bertram (2004). ''Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach'' (Thesis). pp.&nbsp;[https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n147/mode/2up 139–140], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n149/mode/2up 141–142], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n150/mode/1up 143.]</ref><ref name="GJFa">Also, see Garbey, Joerger & Furr (2023), pp.&nbsp;112, 126.</ref>

===Counterfactual===
[[File:The Counterfactual Thought Experiment.jpg|thumb|right|Temporal representation of a counterfactual thought experiment<ref name="auto1">{{Cite thesis |last=Yeates |first=Lindsay Bertram |title=Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach |date=2004 |url=http://archive.org/details/TECA2004 |page=144}}</ref>]]
''Counterfactual (contrary to established fact) thought experiments'' – the term ''[[Counterfactual conditional|counterfactual]]'' was coined by [[Nelson Goodman]] in 1947,<ref name="Goodman, N. 1947 pp. 113-128">Goodman, N., "The Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.44, No.5, (27 February 1947), pp. 113–128.</ref> extending [[Roderick Chisholm]]'s (1946) notion of a "contrary-to-fact conditional"<ref>Chisholm, R.M., "The Contrary-to-Fact Conditional", ''Mind'', Vol.55, No.220, (October 1946), pp. 289–307.</ref> – speculate on the possible outcomes of a different past;<ref>[[Roger Penrose]] (''[[Shadows of the Mind]]: A Search for the Missing Science of Consciousness'', Oxford University Press, (Oxford), 1994, p. 240) considers counterfactuals to be "things that might have happened, although they did not in fact happen".</ref> and ask "What might have happened if A had happened instead of B?" (e.g., "If [[Isaac Newton]] and [[Gottfried Leibniz]] '''''had''''' cooperated with each other, what would mathematics look like today?").<ref>In 1748, when defining causation, [[David Hume]] referred to a counterfactual case: "…we may define a cause to be an ''object, followed by another, and where all objects, similar to the first, are followed by objects similar to the second''. Or in other words, ''where, if the first object had not been, the second never had existed'' …" (Hume, D. (Beauchamp, T.L., ed.), ''An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding'', Oxford University Press, (Oxford), 1999, (7), p. 146.)</ref><ref>See Yeates, Lindsay Bertram (2004). ''Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach'' (Thesis). pp.&nbsp;[https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n147/mode/2up 139–140], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n149/mode/2up 141–142], 
[https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n151/mode/2up 143–144].</ref><ref name="GJFa" />

The study of counterfactual speculation has increasingly engaged the interest of scholars in a wide range of domains such as philosophy,<ref>Goodman, N., "The Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.44, No.5, (27 February 1947), pp. 113–128; Brown, R, & Watling, J., "Counterfactual Conditionals", ''Mind'', Vol.61, No.242, (April 1952), pp. 222–233; Parry, W.T., "Reëxamination of the Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.54, No.4, (14 February 1957), pp. 85–94; Cooley, J.C., "Professor Goodman's ''Fact, Fiction, & Forecast''", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.54, No.10, (9 May 1957), pp. 293–311; Goodman, N., "Parry on Counterfactuals", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.54, No.14, (4 July 1957), pp. 442–445; Goodman, N., "Reply to an Adverse Ally", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.54, No.17, (15 August 1957), pp. 531–535; [[David Lewis (philosopher)|Lewis, D.]], Counterfactuals, Basil Blackwell, (Oxford), 1973, etc.</ref> psychology,<ref>Fillenbaum, S., "Information Amplified: Memory for Counterfactual Conditionals", ''Journal of Experimental Psychology'', Vol.102, No.1, (January 1974), pp. 44–49; Crawford, M.T. & McCrea, S.M., "When Mutations meet Motivations: Attitude Biases in Counterfactual Thought", ''Journal of Experimental Social Psychology'', Vol.40, No.1, (January 2004), pp. 65–74, etc.</ref> cognitive psychology,<ref>Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A., "The Simulation Heuristic", pp. 201–208 in Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A. (eds), ''Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases'', Cambridge University Press, (Cambridge), 1982; Sherman, S.J. & McConnell, A.R., "Dysfunctional Implications of Counterfactual Thinking: When Alternatives to reality Fail Us", pp. 199–231 in Roese, N.J. & Olson, J.M. (eds.), ''What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking'', Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, (Mahwah), 1995;Nasco, S.A. & Marsh, K.L., "Gaining Control Through Counterfactual Thinking", ''Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin'', Vol.25, No.5, (May 1999), pp. 556–568; McCloy, R. & Byrne, R.M.J., "Counterfactual Thinking About Controllable Events", ''Memory and Cognition'', Vol.28, No.6, (September 2000), pp. 1071–1078; Byrne, R.M.J., "Mental Models and Counterfactual Thoughts About What Might Have Been", ''Trends in Cognitive Sciences'', Vol.6, No.10, (October 2002), pp. 426–431; Thompson, V.A. & Byrne, R.M.J., "Reasoning Counterfactually: Making Inferences About Things That Didn't Happen", ''Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition'', Vol.28, No.6, (November 2002), pp. 1154–1170, etc.</ref> history,<ref>Greenberg, M. (ed.), ''The Way It Wasn't: Great Science Fiction Stories of Alternate History'', Citadel Twilight, (New York), 1996; Dozois, G. & Schmidt, W. (eds.), ''Roads Not Taken: Tales of Alternative History'', The Ballantine Publishing Group, (New York), 1998; Sylvan, D. & Majeski, S., "A Methodology for the Study of Historical Counterfactuals", ''International Studies Quarterly'', Vol.42, No.1, (March 1998), pp. 79–108; Ferguson, N., (ed.), ''Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals'', Basic Books, (New York), 1999; Cowley, R. (ed.), ''What If?: The World's Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might have Been'', [[Berkley Books]], (New York), 2000; Cowley, R. (ed.), ''What If? 2: Eminent Historians Imagine What Might have Been'', G.P. Putnam's Sons, (New York), 2001, etc.</ref> political science,<ref>Fearon, J.D., "Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science", ''World Politics'', Vol.43, No.2, (January 1991), pp. 169–195; Tetlock, P.E. & Belkin, A. (eds.), ''Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics'', Princeton University Press, (Princeton), 1996; Lebow, R.N., "What's so Different about a Counterfactual?", ''World Politics'', Vol.52, No.4, (July 2000), pp. 550–585; Chwieroth, J.M., "Counterfactuals and the Study of the American Presidency", ''Presidential Studies Quarterly'', Vol.32, No.2, (June 2002), pp. 293–327, etc.</ref> economics,<ref>Cowan, R. & Foray, R., "Evolutionary Economics and the Counterfactual Threat: On the Nature and Role of Counterfactual History as an Empirical Tool in Economics", ''Journal of Evolutionary Economics'', Vol.12, No.5, (December 2002), pp. 539–562, etc.</ref> social psychology,<ref>Roese, N.J. & Olson, J.M. (eds.), ''What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking'', Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, (Mahwah), 1995; Sanna, L.J., "Defensive Pessimism, Optimism, and Simulating Alternatives: Some Ups and Downs of Prefactual and Counterfactual Thinking", ''Journal of Personality and Social Psychology'', Vol.71, No.5, (November 1996), pp. 1020–1036; Roese, N.J., "Counterfactual Thinking", ''Psychological Bulletin'', Vol.121, No.1, (January 1997), pp. 133–148; Sanna, L.J., "Defensive Pessimism and Optimism: The Bitter-Sweet Influence of Mood on Performance and Prefactual and Counterfactual Thinking", ''Cognition and Emotion'', Vol.12, No.5, (September 1998), pp. 635–665; Sanna, L.J. & Turley-Ames, K.J., "Counterfactual Intensity", ''European Journal of Social Psychology'', Vol.30, No.2, (March/April 2000), pp. 273–296; Sanna, L.J., Parks, C.D., Meier, S., Chang, E.C., Kassin, B.R., Lechter, J.L., Turley-Ames, K.J. & Miyake, T.M., "A Game of Inches: Spontaneous Use of Counterfactuals by Broadcasters During Major League Baseball Playoffs", ''Journal of Applied Social Psychology'', Vol.33, No.3, (March 2003), pp. 455–475, etc.</ref> law,<ref>Strassfeld, R.N., "If...: Counterfactuals in the Law", ''George Washington Law Review'', Volume 60, No.2, (January 1992), pp. 339–416; Spellman, B.A. & Kincannon, A., "The Relation between Counterfactual ("but for") and Causal reasoning: Experimental Findings and Implications for Juror's Decisions", ''Law and Contemporary Problems'', Vol.64, No.4, (Autumn 2001), pp. 241–264; Prentice, R.A. & Koehler, J.J., "A Normality Bias in Legal Decision Making", ''Cornell Law Review'', Vol.88, No.3, (March 2003), pp. 583–650, etc.</ref> organizational theory,<ref>Creyer, E.H. & Gürhan, Z., "Who's to Blame? Counterfactual Reasoning and the Assignment of Blame", ''Psychology and Marketing'', Vol.14, No.3, (May 1997), pp. 209–307; Zeelenberg, M., van Dijk, W.W., van der Plight, J., Manstead, A.S.R., van Empelen, P., & Reinderman, D., "Emotional Reactions to the Outcomes of Decisions: The Role of Counterfactual Thought in the Experience of Regret and Disappointment", ''Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes'', Vol.75, No.2, (August 1998), pp. 117–141; Naquin, C.E. & Tynan, R.O., "The Team Halo Effect: Why Teams Are Not Blamed for Their Failures", ''Journal of Applied Psychology'', Vol.88, No.2, (April 2003), pp. 332–340; Naquin, C.E., "The Agony of Opportunity in Negotiation: Number of Negotiable Issues, Counterfactual Thinking, and Feelings of Satisfaction", ''Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes'', Vol.91, No.1, (May 2003), pp. 97–107, etc.</ref> marketing,<ref>Hetts, J.J., Boninger, D.S., Armor, D.A., Gleicher, F. & Nathanson, A., "The Influence of Anticipated Counterfactual Regret on Behavior", ''Psychology & Marketing'', Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp. 345–368; Landman, J. & Petty, R., ""It Could Have Been You": How States Exploit Counterfactual Thought to Market Lotteries", ''Psychology & Marketing'', Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp. 299–321; McGill, A.L., "Counterfactual Reasoning in Causal Judgements: Implications for Marketing", ''Psychology & Marketing'', Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp. 323–343; Roese, N.J., "Counterfactual Thinking and Marketing: Introduction to the Special Issue", ''Psychology & Marketing', Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp. 277–280; Walchli, S.B. & Landman, J., "Effects of Counterfactual Thought on Postpurchase Consumer Affect", ''Psychology & Marketing'', Vol.20, No.1, (January 2003), pp. 23–46, etc.''</ref> and epidemiology.<ref>Randerson, J., "Fast action would have saved millions", ''New Scientist'', Vol.176, No.2372, (7 December 2002), p. 19; Haydon, D.T., Chase-Topping, M., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Friar, J.K., Wilesmith, J. & Woolhouse, M.E.J., "The Construction and Analysis of Epidemic Trees With Reference to the 2001 UK Foot-and-Mouth Outbreak", ''Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences'', Vol.270, No.1511, (22 January 2003), pp. 121–127, etc.</ref>

===Semifactual===
[[File:The Semifactual Thought Experiment.jpg|thumb|right|Temporal representation of a semifactual thought experiment<ref name="auto1" />]]
''Semifactual thought experiments'' – the term ''semifactual'' was coined by [[Nelson Goodman]] in 1947<ref name="Goodman, N. 1947 pp. 113-128" /><ref>Goodman's original concept has been subsequently developed and expanded by (a) Daniel Cohen (Cohen, D., "Semifactuals, Even-Ifs, and Sufficiency", ''International Logic Review'', Vol.16, (1985), pp. 102–111), (b) Stephen Barker (Barker, S., "''Even'', ''Still'' and Counterfactuals", ''Linguistics and Philosophy'', Vol.14, No.1, (February 1991), pp. 1–38; Barker, S., "Counterfactuals, Probabilistic Counterfactuals and Causation", ''Mind'', Vol.108, No.431, (July 1999), pp. 427–469), and (c) Rachel McCloy and Ruth Byrne (McCloy, R. & Byrne, R.M.J., "Semifactual 'Even If' Thinking", ''Thinking and Reasoning'', Vol.8, No.1, (February 2002), pp. 41–67).</ref> – speculate on the extent to which things might have remained the same, despite there being a different past; and asks the question Even though X happened instead of E, would Y have still occurred? (e.g., Even if the goalie '''''had''''' moved left, rather than right, could he have intercepted a ball that was traveling at such a speed?).<ref>See Yeates, Lindsay Bertram (2004). ''Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach'' (Thesis). pp.&nbsp;[https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n147/mode/2up 139–140], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n149/mode/2up 141–142], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n152/mode/1up 144].</ref><ref name="GJFa" />

Semifactual speculations are an important part of clinical medicine.

===Predictive===
[[File:Prediction, Forecasting and Nowcasting.jpg|thumb|right|Temporal representation of prediction, forecasting and nowcasting<ref name="auto">{{Cite thesis |last=Yeates |first=Lindsay Bertram |title=Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach |date=2004 |url=http://archive.org/details/TECA2004 |page=145}}</ref>]]
The activity of [[prediction]] attempts to project the circumstances of the present into the future.<ref name="TECA145">See Yeates, Lindsay Bertram (2004). ''Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach'' (Thesis). pp.&nbsp;[https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n147/mode/2up 139–140], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n149/mode/2up 141–142], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n153/mode/1up 145].</ref><ref name="GJFb">Also, see Garbey, Joerger & Furr (2023), pp.&nbsp;112, 127.</ref> According to David Sarewitz and Roger Pielke (1999, p123), scientific prediction takes two forms:

# "The elucidation of invariant – and therefore predictive – principles of nature"; and
# "[Using] suites of observational data and sophisticated numerical models in an effort to foretell the behavior or evolution of complex phenomena".<ref>Sarewitz, D. & Pielke, R., "Prediction in Science and Policy", ''Technology in Society'', Vol.21, No.2, (April 1999), pp. 121–133.</ref>

Although they perform different social and scientific functions, the only difference between the qualitatively identical activities of ''predicting'', ''forecasting,'' and ''nowcasting'' is the distance of the speculated future from the present moment occupied by the user.<ref>Nowcasting (obviously based on forecasting) is also known as ''very-short-term forecasting''; thus, also indicating a ''very-short-term'', ''mid-range'', and ''long-range forecasting'' continuum.</ref> Whilst the activity of nowcasting, defined as "a detailed description of the current weather along with forecasts obtained by extrapolation up to 2 hours ahead", is essentially concerned with describing the current state of affairs, it is common practice to extend the term "to cover very-short-range forecasting up to 12 hours ahead" (Browning, 1982, p.ix).<ref>Browning, K.A. (ed.), ''Nowcasting'', Academic Press, (London), 1982.</ref><ref>Murphy, and Brown – Murphy, A.H. & Brown, B.G., "Similarity and Analogical Reasoning: A Synthesis", pp. 3–15 in Browning, K.A. (ed.),
''Nowcasting'', Academic Press, (London), 1982 – describe a large range of specific applications for meteorological nowcasting over a wide range of user demands:<br />
(1) Agriculture: (a) wind and precipitation forecasts for effective seeding and spraying from aircraft; (b) precipitation forecasts to minimize damage to seedlings; (c) minimum temperature, dewpoint, cloud cover, and wind speed forecasts to protect crops from frost; (d) maximum temperature forecasts to reduce adverse effects of high temperatures on crops and livestock; (e) humidity and cloud cover forecasts to prevent fungal disease crop losses; (f) hail forecasts to minimize damage to livestock and greenhouses; (g) precipitation, temperature, and dewpoint forecasts to avoid during- and after-harvest losses due to crops rotting in the field; (h) precipitation forecasts to minimize losses in drying raisins; and (i) humidity forecasts to reduce costs and losses resulting from poor conditions for drying tobacco.<br />
(2) Construction: (a) precipitation and wind speed forecasts to avoid damage to finished work (e.g. concrete) and minimize costs of protecting exposed surfaces, structures, and work sites; and (b) precipitation, wind speed, and high/low-temperature forecasts to schedule work in an efficient manner.<br />
(3) Energy: (a) temperature, humidity, wind, cloud, etc. forecasts to optimize procedures related to generation and distribution of electricity and gas; (b) forecasts of thunderstorms, strong winds, low temperatures, and freezing precipitation minimize damage to lines and equipment and
to schedule repairs.<br />
(4) Transportation: (a) ceiling height and visibility, winds and turbulence, and surface ice and snow forecasts minimize risk, maximize efficiency in pre-flight and in-flight decisions and other adjustments to weather-related fluctuations in traffic; (b) forecasts of wind speed and direction, as well as severe weather and icing conditions along flight paths facilitate optimal airline route planning; (c) forecasts of snowfall, precipitation, and other storm-related events allow truckers, motorists, and public transportation systems to avoid damage to weather-sensitive goods, select optimum routes, prevent accidents, minimize delays, and maximize revenues under conditions of adverse weather.<br />
(5) Public Safety & General Public: (a) rain, snow, wind, and temperature forecasts assist the general public in planning activities such as commuting, recreation, and shopping; (b) forecasts of temperature/humidity extremes (or significant changes) alert hospitals, clinics, and the public to weather conditions that may seriously aggravate certain health-related illnesses; (c) forecasts related to potentially dangerous or damaging natural events (e.g., tornados, severe thunderstorms, severe winds, storm surges, avalanches, precipitation, floods) minimize loss of life and property damage; and (d) forecasts of snowstorms, surface icing, visibility, and other events (e.g. floods) enable highway maintenance and traffic control organizations to take appropriate actions to reduce risks of traffic accidents and protect roads from damage.</ref>

===Hindcasting===
[[File:Hindcasting.jpeg|thumb|right|Temporal representation of hindcasting<ref name="auto" />]]
The activity of [[Backtesting#Hindcast|hindcasting]] involves running a forecast model after an event has happened in order to test whether the model's [[simulation]] is valid.<ref name="TECA145" /><ref name="GJFb" />

===Retrodiction===
[[File:Retrodiction or Postdiction.jpg|thumb|right|Temporal representation of retrodiction or postdiction<ref>{{Cite thesis |last=Yeates |first=Lindsay Bertram |title=Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach |date=2004 |url=http://archive.org/details/TECA2004 |page=146}}</ref>]]
The activity of ''[[retrodiction]]'' (or ''postdiction'') involves moving backward in time, step-by-step, in as many stages as are considered necessary, from the present into the speculated past to establish the ultimate cause of a specific event (e.g., [[reverse engineering]] and [[forensics]]).<ref>See Yeates, Lindsay Bertram (2004). ''Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach'' (Thesis). pp.&nbsp;[https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n147/mode/2up 139–140], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n149/mode/2up 141–142], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n154/mode/1up 146].</ref><ref name="GJFb" />

Given that retrodiction is a process in which "past observations, events, add and data are used as evidence to infer the process(es) that produced them" and that [[Medical diagnosis|diagnosis]] "involve[s] going from visible effects such as symptoms, signs and the like to their prior causes",<ref>p. 24, Einhorn, H.J. & Hogarth, R.M., "Prediction, Diagnosis, and Causal Thinking in Forecasting", ''Journal of Forecasting'', (January–March 1982), Vol.1, No.1, pp. 23–36.</ref> the essential balance between prediction and retrodiction could be characterized as:

{{bi|'''retrodiction : diagnosis :: prediction : prognosis'''}}

regardless of whether the [[prognosis]] is of the course of the disease in the absence of treatment, or of the application of a specific treatment regimen to a specific disorder in a particular patient.<ref>"…We consider diagnostic inference to be based on causal thinking, although in doing diagnosis one has to mentally reverse the time order in which events were thought to have occurred (hence the term "backward inference"). On the other hand, predictions involve forward inference; i.e., one goes forward in time from present causes to future effects. However, it is important to recognize the dependence of forward inference/prediction on backward inference/diagnosis. In particular, it seems likely that success in predicting the future depends to a considerable degree on making sense of the past. Therefore, people are continually engaged in shifting between forward and backward inference in both making and evaluating forecasts. Indeed, this can be eloquently summarized by Kierkegaard's observation that 'Life can only be understood backward; but it must be lived forwards' …"(Einhorn & Hogarth, 1982, p. 24).</ref>

===Backcasting===
[[File:Backcasting.jpg|thumb|right|Temporal representation of backcasting<ref>{{Cite thesis |last=Yeates |first=Lindsay Bertram |title=Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach |date=2004 |url=http://archive.org/details/TECA2004 |page=147}}</ref>]]
The activity of ''[[backcasting]]'' – the term ''backcasting'' was coined by John Robinson in 1982<ref>See Robinson, J.B., "Energy Backcasting: A Proposed Method of Policy Analysis", ''Energy Policy'', Vol.10, No.4 (December 1982), pp. 337–345; Robinson, J.B., "Unlearning and Backcasting: Rethinking Some of the Questions We Ask About the Future", ''Technological Forecasting and Social Change'', Vol.33, No.4, (July 1988), pp. 325–338; Robinson, J., "Future Subjunctive: Backcasting as Social Learning", ''Futures'', Vol.35, No.8, (October 2003), pp. 839–856.</ref> – involves establishing the description of a very definite and very specific future situation. It then involves an imaginary moving backward in time, step-by-step, in as many stages as are considered necessary, from the future to the present to reveal the mechanism through which that particular specified future could be attained from the present.<ref>See Yeates, Lindsay Bertram (2004). ''Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach'' (Thesis). pp.&nbsp;[https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n147/mode/2up 139–140], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n149/mode/2up 141–142], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n154/mode/1up 146]–[https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n155/mode/1up 147].</ref><ref>Also, see Garbey, Joerger & Furr (2023), pp.&nbsp;112, 127–128.</ref><ref>Robinson's backcasting approach is very similar to the ''anticipatory scenarios'' of Ducot and Lubben (Ducot, C. & Lubben, G.J., "A Typology for Scenarios", ''Futures'', Vol.11, No.1, (February 1980), pp. 51–57), and Bunn and Salo (Bunn, D.W. & Salo, A.A., "Forecasting with scenarios", European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.68, No.3, (13 August 1993), pp. 291–303).</ref>

Backcasting is not concerned with predicting the future:

{{blockquote|The major distinguishing characteristic of backcasting analyses is the concern, not with likely energy futures, but with how desirable futures can be attained. It is thus explicitly [[normative]], involving 'working backward' from a particular future end-point to the present to determine what policy measures would be required to reach that future.<ref>p. 814, Dreborg, K.H., "Essence of Backcasting", ''Futures'', Vol.28, No.9, (November 1996), pp. 813–828.</ref>}}

According to Jansen (1994, p.&nbsp;503:<ref>Jansen, L., "Towards a Sustainable Future, en route with Technology", pp. 496–525 in Dutch Committee for Long-Term Environmental Policy (ed.), ''The Environment: Towards a Sustainable Future (Environment & Policy, Volume 1)'', Kluwer Academic Publishers, (Dortrecht), 1994.</ref>

{{blockquote|Within the framework of technological development, "forecasting" concerns the extrapolation of developments towards the future and the exploration of achievements that can be realized through technology in the long term. Conversely, the reasoning behind "backcasting" is: on the basis of an interconnecting picture of demands technology must meet in the future – "sustainability criteria" – to direct and determine the process that technology development must take and possibly also the pace at which this development process must take effect.

Backcasting [is] both an important aid in determining the direction technology development must take and in specifying the targets to be set for this purpose. As such, backcasting is an ideal search toward determining the nature and scope of the technological challenge posed by sustainable development, and it can thus serve to direct the search process toward new – sustainable – technology.}}