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Exit poll
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==Criticism and controversy== Widespread criticism of exit polling has occurred in cases, especially in the [[United States]], where exit poll results have appeared and/or have provided a basis for projecting winners before all real polls have closed, thereby possibly influencing election results. States have tried and failed to restrict exit polling; however, it is protected by the First Amendment.<ref>Pickert, Kate. "A Brief History of Exit Polling." Time. Time Inc., 04 Nov. 2008. Web. 16 Nov.https://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1856081,00.html</ref> In the [[1980 United States presidential election|1980 US presidential election]], NBC predicted a victory for Ronald Reagan at 8:15 pm EST, based on exit polls of 20,000 voters. It was 5:15 pm on the West Coast, and the polls were still open. There was speculation that voters stayed away after hearing the results.<ref>Facts on File Yearbook 1980 p865</ref> Thereafter, television networks have voluntarily adopted the policy of not projecting any victor within a state until all polls have closed for that state.<ref>{{cite web|title=Explaining Exit Polls|url=http://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Explaining-Exit-Polls.aspx|website=AAPOR|access-date=27 April 2016|archive-date=12 April 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160412164054/http://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Explaining-Exit-Polls.aspx|url-status=dead}}</ref> In the [[2000 United States presidential election|2000 US presidential election]] it was alleged that media organizations released exit poll results for [[Florida]] before the polls closed in the Republican-leaning counties of the [[Florida Panhandle|panhandle]], as part of the westernmost area of the state is one hour behind the main peninsula. A study by economist [[John R. Lott|John Lott]] found an "unusual" decline in Panhandle voter turnout compared to previous elections, and that the networks' early call of Florida for Democrat [[Al Gore]] may have depressed Republican turnout in other states where the polls remained open.<ref>{{cite report |author=John Lott |date=December 1, 2000 |title=Documenting Unusual Declines in Republican Voting Rates in Florida's Western Panhandle Counties in 2000 |url=https://www.readcube.com/articles/10.2139%2Fssrn.276278 |publisher=American Enterprise Institute |page=7 |doi=10.2139/ssrn.276278 |access-date=April 16, 2022 |quote="The results...clearly show an unusual drop-off in Republican turnout in Florida's 10 western Panhandle counties in 2000."|url-access=subscription }}</ref> Some countries, including the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany, India and Singapore, have made it a criminal offence to release exit poll figures before all polling stations have closed.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.article19.org/data/files/pdfs/publications/opinion-polls-paper.pdf |title=Comparative study of laws and regulations restricting the publication of electoral opinion polls |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20080216000653/http://www.article19.org/pdfs/publications/opinion-polls-paper.pdf |archivedate=16 February 2008 |website=Article 19 |date=2003}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://mothership.sg/2020/06/exit-polls-election-surveys-ge2020/ |title=Here's why you will never see exit poll & election survey results even though it's GE2020 |first=Joshua |last=Lee |date=June 25, 2020 |work=Mothership}}</ref> In some instances, problems with exit polls have encouraged polling groups to pool data in hopes of increased accuracy. This proved successful during the [[2005 United Kingdom general election|2005 UK general election]], when the [[BBC]] and [[ITV (TV network)|ITV]] merged their data to show an exit poll giving [[Labour Party (UK)|Labour]] a majority of 66 seats, which turned out to be the exact figure. This method was also successful in the [[2007 Australian federal election]], where the collaboration of [[Sky News Australia|Sky News]], [[Seven Network]] and Auspoll provided an almost exact 53 per cent [[Two-party-preferred vote|two party-preferred]] victory to [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]] over the ruling [[Coalition (Australia)|Coalition]]. There was a widespread controversy during the [[2014 Indian general election]] when the [[Election Commission of India]] barred media organisations from displaying exit poll results until the votes had been counted. This was followed by a strong protest from the media which caused the Election Commission to withdraw its statement and confirm that the exit polls could be shown at 6:30 PM on 12 May after the last vote was cast. Since then exit polls have been prohibited in India while the polls are open, only post-poll opinion surveys are allowed.
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