Editing Ice sheet (section)

====Vulnerable locations====

[[File:Dotto_2022_PIB_meltwater.png|thumb|Distribution of meltwater hotspots caused by ice losses in [[Pine Island Bay]], the location of both Thwaites (TEIS refers to Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf) and Pine Island Glaciers.<ref name="Dotto2022">{{Cite journal|last1=Dotto |first1=Tiago S. |last2=Heywood |first2=Karen J. |last3=Hall |first3=Rob A. |last4=Scambos |first4=Ted A. |last5=Zheng |first5=Yixi |last6=Nakayama |first6=Yoshihiro |last7=Hyogo |first7=Shuntaro |last8=Snow |first8=Tasha |last9=Wåhlin |first9=Anna K. |last10=Wild |first10=Christian |last11=Truffer |first11=Martin |last12=Muto |first12=Atsuhiro |last13=Alley |first13=Karen E. |last14=Boehme |first14=Lars |last15=Bortolotto |first15=Guilherme A. |last16=Tyler |first16=Scott W. |last17=Pettit |first17=Erin |date=21 December 2022 |title=Ocean variability beneath Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf driven by the Pine Island Bay Gyre strength| display-authors= 3 |journal=Nature Communications|language=en |volume=13 |issue=1 |page=7840 |doi=10.1038/s41467-022-35499-5 |pmid=36543787 |pmc=9772408 |bibcode=2022NatCo..13.7840D }}</ref>]]

Because the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet is grounded below the sea level, it would be vulnerable to geologically rapid ice loss in this scenario.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Mercer|first=J. H.|date=1978|title=West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster|journal=Nature|language=En|volume=271|issue=5643|pages=321–325|doi=10.1038/271321a0|issn=0028-0836|bibcode=1978Natur.271..321M|s2cid=4149290}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Vaughan|first=David G.|date=2008-08-20|title=West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm|journal=Climatic Change|language=en|volume=91|issue=1–2|pages=65–79|doi=10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3|bibcode=2008ClCh...91...65V|s2cid=154732005|issn=0165-0009|url=http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/769/1/The_return_of_a_paradigm_16_-_nora.pdf}}</ref> In particular, the [[Thwaites glacier|Thwaites]] and [[Pine Island glacier|Pine Island]] glaciers are most likely to be prone to MISI, and both glaciers have been rapidly thinning and accelerating in recent decades.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/after-decades-of-ice-loss-antarctica-is-now-hemorrhaging-mass/562748/|work=The Atlantic|year=2018|title=After Decades of Losing Ice, Antarctica Is Now Hemorrhaging It}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/ice-ocean-interactions/marine-ice-sheets/|work=AntarcticGlaciers.org|year=2014|title=Marine ice sheet instability}}</ref><ref name="Gardner 2018">{{Cite journal|last1=Gardner|first1=A. S.|last2=Moholdt|first2=G.|last3=Scambos|first3=T.|last4=Fahnstock|first4=M.|last5=Ligtenberg|first5=S.|last6=van den Broeke|first6=M.|last7=Nilsson|first7=J.|date=2018-02-13|title=Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years|journal=The Cryosphere|volume=12|issue=2|pages=521–547|doi=10.5194/tc-12-521-2018|bibcode=2018TCry...12..521G|issn=1994-0424|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|author1=IMBIE team|date=2018|title=Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017|journal=Nature|language=En|volume=558|issue=7709|pages=219–222|doi=10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y|issn=0028-0836|pmid=29899482|url=https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/225208|bibcode=2018Natur.558..219I|hdl=2268/225208|s2cid=49188002}}</ref> As a result, sea level rise from the ice sheet could be accelerated by tens of centimeters within the 21st century alone.<ref name="IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch.9">{{Cite journal |last1=Fox-Kemper |first1=B. |last2=Hewitt |first2=H.T.|author2-link=Helene Hewitt |last3=Xiao |first3=C. |last4=Aðalgeirsdóttir |first4=G. |last5=Drijfhout |first5=S.S. |last6=Edwards |first6=T.L. |last7=Golledge |first7=N.R. |last8=Hemer |first8=M. |last9=Kopp |first9=R.E. |last10=Krinner |first10=G. |last11=Mix |first11=A. |date=2021 |editor-last=Masson-Delmotte |editor-first=V. |editor2-last=Zhai |editor2-first=P. |editor3-last=Pirani |editor3-first=A. |editor4-last=Connors |editor4-first=S.L. |editor5-last=Péan |editor5-first=C. |editor6-last=Berger |editor6-first=S. |editor7-last=Caud |editor7-first=N. |editor8-last=Chen |editor8-first=Y. |editor9-last=Goldfarb |editor9-first=L. |title=Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change |journal=Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter09.pdf |publisher=Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA |pages=1270–1272 }}</ref>

The majority of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet would not be affected. [[Totten Glacier]] is the largest glacier there which is known to be subject to MISI - yet, its potential contribution to sea level rise is comparable to that of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Young|first1=Duncan A.|last2=Wright|first2=Andrew P.|last3=Roberts|first3=Jason L.|last4=Warner|first4=Roland C.|last5=Young|first5=Neal W.|last6=Greenbaum|first6=Jamin S.|last7=Schroeder|first7=Dustin M.|last8=Holt|first8=John W.|last9=Sugden|first9=David E.|date=2011-06-02|title=A dynamic early East Antarctic Ice Sheet suggested by ice-covered fjord landscapes|journal=Nature|language=En|volume=474|issue=7349|pages=72–75|doi=10.1038/nature10114|pmid=21637255|issn=0028-0836|bibcode=2011Natur.474...72Y|s2cid=4425075}}</ref> Totten Glacier has been losing mass nearly monotonically in recent decades,<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Mohajerani|first=Yara|date=2018|title=Mass Loss of Totten and Moscow University Glaciers, East Antarctica, Using Regionally Optimized GRACE Mascons|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|volume=45|issue=14|pages=7010–7018|doi=10.1029/2018GL078173|bibcode=2018GeoRL..45.7010M|s2cid=134054176 |url=https://escholarship.org/uc/item/21c3r9dv|doi-access=free}}</ref> suggesting rapid retreat is possible in the near future, although the dynamic behavior of Totten Ice Shelf is known to vary on seasonal to interannual timescales.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Greene|first1=Chad A.|last2=Young|first2=Duncan A.|last3=Gwyther|first3=David E.|last4=Galton-Fenzi|first4=Benjamin K.|last5=Blankenship|first5=Donald D.|date=2018|title=Seasonal dynamics of Totten Ice Shelf controlled by sea ice buttressing|journal=The Cryosphere|language=en|volume=12|issue=9|pages=2869–2882|doi=10.5194/tc-12-2869-2018|issn=1994-0416|doi-access=free|bibcode=2018TCry...12.2869G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Roberts|first1=Jason|last2=Galton-Fenzi|first2=Benjamin K.|last3=Paolo|first3=Fernando S.|last4=Donnelly|first4=Claire|last5=Gwyther|first5=David E.|last6=Padman|first6=Laurie|last7=Young|first7=Duncan|last8=Warner|first8=Roland|last9=Greenbaum|first9=Jamin|date=2017-08-23|title=Ocean forced variability of Totten Glacier mass loss|journal=Geological Society, London, Special Publications|volume=461|issue=1|pages=175–186|doi=10.1144/sp461.6|issn=0305-8719|url=https://eprints.utas.edu.au/25611/1/SP461.6.full.pdf|bibcode=2018GSLSP.461..175R|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Greene|first1=Chad A.|last2=Blankenship|first2=Donald D.|last3=Gwyther|first3=David E.|last4=Silvano|first4=Alessandro|last5=Wijk|first5=Esmee van|date=2017-11-01|title=Wind causes Totten Ice Shelf melt and acceleration|journal=Science Advances|language=en|volume=3|issue=11|pages=e1701681|doi=10.1126/sciadv.1701681|issn=2375-2548|pmc=5665591|pmid=29109976|bibcode=2017SciA....3E1681G}}</ref> The Wilkes Basin is the only major submarine basin in Antarctica that is not thought to be sensitive to warming.<ref name="Gardner 2018" /> Ultimately, even geologically rapid sea level rise would still most likely require several millennia for the entirety of these ice masses (WAIS and the subglacial basins) to be lost.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Armstrong McKay |first1=David|last2=Abrams |first2=Jesse |last3=Winkelmann |first3=Ricarda  |last4=Sakschewski |first4=Boris  |last5=Loriani |first5=Sina  |last6=Fetzer |first6=Ingo|last7=Cornell|first7=Sarah |last8=Rockström |first8=Johan |last9=Staal |first9=Arie |last10=Lenton |first10=Timothy |date=9 September 2022 |title=Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 |journal=Science |language=en |volume=377 |issue=6611 |pages=eabn7950 |doi=10.1126/science.abn7950 |pmid=36074831 |hdl=10871/131584 |s2cid=252161375 |issn=0036-8075|hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Explainer">{{Cite web |last=Armstrong McKay |first=David |date=9 September 2022 |title=Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points – paper explainer |url=https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping-points-reassessment-explainer/ |access-date=2 October 2022 |website=climatetippingpoints.info |language=en}}</ref>