Editing Radiative forcing (section)

=== Climate sensitivity ===
{{main|Climate sensitivity}}

Radiative forcing and climate feedbacks can be used together to estimate a subsequent change in steady-state (often denoted "equilibrium") surface temperature (Δ''T''<sub>s</sub>) via the equation:

: <math>\Delta T_s =~ \tilde{\lambda}~\Delta F</math>

where <math>\tilde{\lambda}</math> is commonly denoted the [[climate sensitivity]] parameter, usually with units K/(W/m<sup>2</sup>), and Δ''F'' is the radiative forcing in W/m<sup>2</sup>.<ref>{{cite web |title=IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001 |url=http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/222.htm |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090630133202/http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=%2Fclimate%2Fipcc_tar%2Fwg1%2F222.htm |archive-date=30 June 2009}}</ref> An estimate for  <math>\tilde{\lambda}</math> is obtained from the inverse of the [[climate change feedback|climate feedback]] parameter <math>\lambda</math> having units (W/m<sup>2</sup>)/K. An estimated value of <math>\tilde{\lambda}\approx0.8</math> gives an increase in global temperature of about 1.6 K above the 1750 reference temperature due to the increase in {{CO2}} over that time (278 to 405 ppm, for a forcing of 2.0 W/m<sup>2</sup>), and predicts a further warming of 1.4 K above present temperatures if the {{CO2}} mixing ratio in the atmosphere were to become double its pre-industrial value. Both of these calculations assume no other forcings.<ref>{{cite web |title=Atmosphere Changes |url=http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.html |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090510053004/http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.html |archive-date=10 May 2009}}</ref>

Historically, radiative forcing displays the best predictive capacity for specific types of forcing such as greenhouse gases. It is less effective for other anthropogenic influences like [[soot]].<ref name="Nauels-2019">{{Cite journal |last1=Nauels |first1=A. |last2=Rosen |first2=D. |last3=Mauritsen |first3=T. |last4=Maycock |first4=A. |last5=McKenna |first5=C. |last6=Rogelj |first6=J. |author6-link=Joeri Rogelj |last7=Schleussner |first7=C.-F. |last8=Smith |first8=E. |last9=Smith |first9=C. |date=2019-12-02 |title=ZERO IN ON the remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates. The CONSTRAIN Project Annual Report 2019 |url=https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/154082/8/CONSTRAIN-Zero%20In%20On%20The%20Remaining%20Carbon%20Budget%20%26%20Decadal%20Warming%20Rates-Full.pdf |language=en |doi=10.5518/100/20 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191209110854/https://constrain-eu.org/ |archive-date=2019-12-09 |access-date=2020-01-20 |website=constrain-eu.org}}</ref>