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Alpine Fault
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=== Prediction of next earthquake === In 2012, [[GNS Science]] researchers published an 8000-year timeline of 24 major earthquakes on the (southern end of the) fault from sediments at Hokuri Creek, near [[Lake McKerrow]] in north Fiordland. In earthquake terms, the up to {{convert|800|km}}<ref group=lower-alpha name="lengthnotes"/> long<ref name="Berryman2012"/> fault was remarkably consistent, rupturing on average every 330 years, at intervals ranging from 140 years to 510 years.<ref name="mediacentre">{{cite web|url=http://www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2012/06/28/well-behaved-alpine-fault-experts-respond/|title='Well Behaved' Alpine Fault β experts respond|date=28 June 2012|website=[[Science Media Centre]]|access-date=14 March 2018}}</ref> In 2017, GNS researchers revised the figures after they combined updated Hokuri site records with a thousand-year record from another site, 20 km away at John O'Groats River, to produce a record of 27 major earthquake events during the 8000-year period.<ref name="Cochran2017"/> This gave a mean recurrence rate of 291 years, plus or minus 23 years,<ref name="Cochran2017"/> versus the previously estimated rate of 329 years, plus or minus 26 years. In the new study, the interval between earthquakes ranged from 160 to 350 years, and the probability of an earthquake occurring in the 50 years following 2017 was estimated at 29 percent for this southern sector of the fault alone.<ref name="GNS2017">{{cite web|url=https://www.stuff.co.nz/science/90081709/new-study-says-alpine-fault-quake-interval-shorter-than-thought-gns-science|title=New study says Alpine Fault quake interval shorter than thought: GNS Science|date=6 March 2017|website=stuff www.stuff.co.nz|access-date=17 September 2018}}</ref><ref name="Howarth2018"/> A 2021 study estimated the probability of an earthquake occurring before 2068 was 75 percent.<ref name="GNS2021" /><ref name="rnz" />
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