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Confidence interval
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=== Comparison with [[prediction interval]]s === A confidence interval is used to estimate a population parameter, such as the mean. For example, the expected value of a fair six-sided die is 3.5. Based on repeated sampling, after computing many 95% confidence intervals, roughly 95% of them will contain 3.5. A prediction interval, on the other hand, provides a range within which a future individual observation is expected to fall with a certain probability. In the case of a single roll of a fair six-sided die, the outcome will always lie between 1 and 6. Thus, a 95% prediction interval for a future roll is approximately [1, 6], since this range captures the inherent variability of individual outcomes. The key distinction is that confidence intervals quantify uncertainty in estimating parameters, while prediction intervals quantify uncertainty in forecasting future observations.
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