Open main menu
Home
Random
Recent changes
Special pages
Community portal
Preferences
About Wikipedia
Disclaimers
Incubator escapee wiki
Search
User menu
Talk
Dark mode
Contributions
Create account
Log in
Editing
Likelihood principle
(section)
Warning:
You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you
log in
or
create an account
, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.
Anti-spam check. Do
not
fill this in!
===The voltmeter story=== An argument in favor of the likelihood principle is given by Edwards in his book ''Likelihood''. He cites the following story from J.W. Pratt, slightly condensed here. Note that the likelihood function depends only on what actually happened, and not on what ''could'' have happened. : An engineer draws a random sample of electron tubes and measures their voltages. The measurements range from 75 to 99 Volts. A statistician computes the sample mean and a confidence interval for the true mean. Later the statistician discovers that the voltmeter reads only as far as 100 Volts, so technically, the population appears to be β''[[Censoring (statistics)|censored]]''β. If the statistician is orthodox this necessitates a new analysis. : However, the engineer says he has another meter reading to 1000 Volts, which he would have used if any voltage had been over 100. This is a relief to the statistician, because it means the population was effectively uncensored after all. But later, the statistician discovers that the second meter had not been working when the measurements were taken. The engineer informs the statistician that he would not have held up the original measurements until the second meter was fixed, and the statistician informs him that new measurements are required. The engineer is astounded. β''Next you'll be asking about my oscilloscope!''β ;Throwback to ''Example 2'' in the prior section: This story can be translated to Adam's stopping rule above, as follows: Adam stopped immediately after 3 successes, because his boss Bill had instructed him to do so. After the publication of the statistical analysis by Bill, Adam realizes that he has missed a later instruction from Bill to instead conduct 12 trials, and that Bill's paper is based on this second instruction. Adam is very glad that he got his 3 successes after exactly 12 trials, and explains to his friend Charlotte that by coincidence he executed the second instruction. Later, Adam is astonished to hear about Charlotte's letter, explaining that ''now'' the result is significant.
Edit summary
(Briefly describe your changes)
By publishing changes, you agree to the
Terms of Use
, and you irrevocably agree to release your contribution under the
CC BY-SA 4.0 License
and the
GFDL
. You agree that a hyperlink or URL is sufficient attribution under the Creative Commons license.
Cancel
Editing help
(opens in new window)