Editing Nassim Nicholas Taleb (section)

== Ideas and theories ==
[[File:Genealogy map of topics treated by Nassim Taleb.jpg|thumb|Genealogy map of topics treated by Nassim Taleb]]

Taleb's book ''[[The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms|The Bed of Procrustes]]'' summarizes the central problem: "we humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas". Taleb disagrees with [[Platonism|Platonic]] (i.e., theoretical) approaches to reality to the extent that they lead people to have the wrong [[Map–territory relation|map]] of reality, rather than no map at all. He opposes most economic and grand social science theorizing, which in his view, suffers acutely from the problem of overuse of Plato's [[theory of forms]].<ref name="swans" />

He has also proposed that biological, economic, and other systems exhibit an ability to benefit and grow from volatility—including particular types of random errors and events—a characteristic of these systems that he terms ''[[antifragility]].''<ref name="epigenetics" /><ref name="danchinsynd" /> Relatedly, he also believes that universities are better at public relations and claiming credit than generating knowledge. He argues that knowledge and technology are usually generated by what he calls "[[stochastic]] tinkering" rather than by top-down directed research,<ref>Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2001, [http://edge.org/q2007/q07_5.html#taleb The Birth of Stochastic Science] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081208203350/http://edge.org/q2007/q07_5.html#taleb |date=8 December 2008 }}, at ''Edge'' (online), 11 September 2001, accessed 7 May 2015.</ref><ref>Ma'n Barāzī, 2009, [https://books.google.com/books?id=Vr0tAQAAIAAJ Lebanon's rational fools: From the roots of the "economic qabaday" till the 2009 depression election... conflicting tale of paradigms and economic change], Beirut, Lebanon: Data & Investment Consult – Lebanon, p. 182, accessed 7 May 2015.</ref>{{rp|182}} and has proposed option-like experimentation as a way to outperform directed research as a method of scientific discovery, an approach he terms ''convex tinkering.''<ref name=TalebAntifragile12>Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2012, ''[[Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder]],'' [[Random House]] ({{ISBN|0679645276}}) and [[Penguin Books]] ({{ISBN|0718197909}}), accessed 7 May 2015.</ref>{{rp|181''ff'', 213''ff'', 236''ff''}}

Taleb has called for discontinuation of the [[Nobel Prize in Economics]], saying that the damage from economic theories can be devastating.<ref>Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007, "Opinion: The pseudo-science hurting markets," at ''[[Financial Times]]'' (online), 23 October 2007, see [http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4eb6ae86-8166-11dc-a351-0000779fd2ac.html] and [http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FT-Nobel.pdf], accessed 7 May 2014.</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Cox |first=Adam |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68R2SK20100928 |title=Blame Nobel for crisis, says author of 'Black Swan |work=[[Reuters]] |date=28 September 2010}}</ref> He opposes top-down knowledge as an academic illusion.<ref name="econtalk">{{cite podcast|url=http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2009/03/taleb_on_the_fi.html |title=Taleb on the Financial Crisis |host=Russ Roberts |work=The Library of Economics and Liberty}}</ref> Together with Espen Gaarder Haug, Taleb asserts that option pricing is determined in a "heuristic way" by market participants, not by a model, and that models are "lecturing birds on how to fly".<ref name="econtalk" /> Teacher and author Pablo Triana has explored this topic with reference to Haug and Taleb.<ref>Triana, Pablo. ''Lecturing Birds on Flying: Can Mathematical Theories Destroy the Financial Markets?'' Wiley Publishing (2009).</ref> Triana has stated that Taleb might be correct in recommending that retail banks be treated as [[public utility|utilities]], i.e. forbidden to take potentially disastrous risks, whereas hedge funds and other less-regulated investment entities need not be subject to similar restrictions.<ref>{{cite news|last=Garcia|first=Cardiff de Alejo |url=http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2009-06-12/q-and-a-part-ii-alternatives-to-measuring-risk |title=Q&A Part II: Alternatives to measuring risk|work=[[Financial News]]|date=12 June 2009}}</ref>

In his writings, Taleb has identified and discussed the error of comparing real-world randomness with the "structured randomness" in [[quantum physics]] (where probabilities are computable) or games of chance such as casino gambling, in which the probabilities are purposefully constructed by casino management.<ref>Cooke, D., & Logan, C. (2021). Violent extremism: The practical assessment and management of risk. In Terrorism Risk Assessment Instruments (pp. 99-115). IOS Press.</ref><ref name=Cornwell>{{cite news |last=Cornwell |first=John |url=https://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/books/non-fiction/article1708246.ece |archive-url=https://archive.today/20080511203955/http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/books/non-fiction/article1708246.ece |url-status=dead |archive-date=11 May 2008 |title=Random thoughts on the road to riches |work=[[The Sunday Times]] |date=29 April 2007}}</ref> Taleb calls this the "[[ludic fallacy]]". He argues that predictive models suffer from [[Platonism]], gravitating towards mathematical purity and failing to take certain key ideas into account such as the impossibility of possessing all relevant information; that small unknown variations in the data can have a huge impact; and flawed theories/models based on empirical data and that fail to consider events that have not taken place but could take place. Discussing the ludic fallacy in ''The Black Swan'', he writes, "The dark side of the moon is harder to see; beaming light on it costs energy. In the same way, beaming light on the unseen is costly, in both computational and mental effort."

In the second edition of ''The Black Swan'', he posited that the foundations of [[quantitative analyst|quantitative economics]] are faulty and highly self-referential. He states that statistics is fundamentally incomplete as a field, as it cannot predict the risk of rare events, a problem that is acute in proportion to the rarity of these events. With the mathematician [[Raphael Douady]], he called the problem ''statistical undecidability'' (Douady and Taleb, 2010).<ref>{{Cite web|last2=Taleb|first2=Nassim Nicholas |first1=Raphael |last1=Douady |author-link=Raphael Douady|date=October 2010 |title=Statistical Undecidability |url=http://www.datascienceassn.org/sites/default/files/Statistical%20Undecidability.pdf |access-date=3 December 2020 |website=data science assn}}</ref>

Taleb has described his main challenge as mapping his ideas of "robustification" and "[[antifragility]]", that is, how to live and act in a world we do not understand and build robustness to black swan events. Taleb introduced the idea of the "fourth quadrant" in the exposure domain.<ref>Taleb, N. N. (2009). Errors, robustness, and the fourth quadrant. [http://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeintfor/v_3a25_3ay_3a2009_3ai_3a4_3ap_3a744-759.htm International Journal of Forecasting, 25(4), 744–59]</ref> One of its applications is in his definition of the most effective (that is, least fragile) risk management approach: what he calls the "[[barbell strategy]]" which is based on avoiding the middle in favor of linear combination of extremes, across all domains from politics to economics to one's personal life. These are deemed by Taleb to be more robust to estimation errors. For instance, he suggests that investing money in 'medium risk' investments is pointless, because risk is difficult, if not impossible to compute. His preferred strategy is to be both hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive at the same time. For example, an investor might put 80 to 90% of their money in extremely safe instruments, such as treasury bills, with the remainder going into highly risky and diversified speculative bets. An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside.

Taleb asserts that by adopting these strategies, a portfolio can be "robust", i.e. gain a positive exposure to black swan events while limiting losses suffered by such random events.<ref>Taleb, ''The Black Swan'', pg 207</ref>{{rp|207}} Together with [[Donald Geman]] and [[Hélyette Geman]], he modeled a [[Principle of maximum entropy|maximum entropy]] barbell "to constrain only what can be constrained (in a robust manner) and to maximize entropy elsewhere", based on an insight by E. T. Jaynes that economic life increases in entropy under regulatory and other constraints.<ref>{{cite journal |last1 = Geman |first1 = D. |last2 = Geman |first2 = H. |last3 = Taleb |first3 = N. N. |author-link1=Donald Geman|author-link2=Hélyette Geman| year = 2015 |title = Tail risk constraints and maximum entropy |journal = Entropy |volume = 17 |issue = 6|page = 3724 | doi=10.3390/e17063724| arxiv = 1412.7647| bibcode = 2015Entrp..17.3724G| s2cid = 2273464 |doi-access = free }}</ref> Taleb also applies a similar barbell-style approach to health and exercise. Instead of doing steady and moderate exercise daily, he suggests that it is better to do a low-effort exercise such as walking slowly most of the time, while occasionally expending extreme effort. He claims that the human body evolved to live in a random environment, with various unexpected but intense efforts and much rest.<ref>{{cite book |first=Nassim Nicholas |last=Taleb |year=2012 |title=Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder |publisher=[[Random House]]|title-link=Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder }}</ref>

Taleb appeared with [[Ron Paul]]<ref>{{cite web |url=http://rationalreview.com/archives/290382|title=Ron Paul Liberty Report, 3/15/18 |date=16 March 2018|access-date=24 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319004808/http://rationalreview.com/archives/290382|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=dead}}</ref> and [[Ralph Nader]]<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ralphnaderradiohour.com/skin-in-the-game/ |title=Skin in the Game – Ralph Nader Radio Hour |website=ralphnaderradiohour.com |date=10 March 2018 |access-date=24 March 2018 |archive-date=22 May 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200522110505/https://ralphnaderradiohour.com/skin-in-the-game/ |url-status=dead}}</ref> on their respective shows in support of ''Skin in the Game'', which was dedicated to both men.<ref>{{cite book |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=vqZJDwAAQBAJ&q=%22Ralph+Nader%22&pg=PA32 |title=Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life – Nassim Nicholas Taleb |access-date=11 April 2018 |isbn=978-0425284629 |last1=Taleb |first1=Nassim Nicholas |year=2018 |publisher=Random House Publishing }}</ref> After the [[Russian invasion of Ukraine|2022 invasion of Ukraine]], however, Taleb publicly supported an aggressive response against Russia and denounced "naive libertarians, who think I'm like them because they like my books."<ref>{{cite web |url=https://medium.com/incerto/a-clash-of-two-systems-47009e9715e2 |title=A Clash of Two Systems |magazine=[[Medium (website)|Medium]] |date=19 April 2022 }}</ref>

Taleb wrote in [[Antifragile (book)|Antifragile]] and in scientific papers<ref>Taleb, N. N. (July 2018). (Anti) Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine. In International Conference on Complex Systems (pp. 299–325). Springer, Cham.</ref> that if the statistical structure of habits in modern society differ too greatly from the ancestral environment of humanity, the analysis of consumption should focus less on composition and more on frequency. In other words, studies that ignore the random nature of supply of nutrients are invalid.

Taleb's scathing counter-intuitive takedown of widely-circulated alt-right talking points about race and IQ received both criticism and praise, when he published his "IQ is largely a pseudo-scientific swindle" on Medium.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Medium |url=https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 |access-date=2025-04-16 |website=Medium |language=en}}</ref> Posting a video on YouTube on the same topic, Taleb demonstrates that IQ as a test does not measure intelligence, which is a multi-factor phenomenon, but rather tests for the "absence of stupidity" or the "presence of unintelligence." Taleb argues in the paper that not only is IQ unscientific, and not validated by any evidence, it is additionally immoral and racist, calling national IQ rankings "a complete fraud."  

Taleb authored a paper with [[Yaneer Bar-Yam]] and [[Joseph Norman]] called ''Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogens – Coronavirus: A note''. The paper, published on 26 January 2020, took the position that the [[SARS-CoV-2]] was not being taken seriously enough by policy makers and medical professionals.<ref>{{cite magazine |url=https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system |title=The Pandemic Isn't a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System |magazine=[[The New Yorker]] |date=21 April 2020 }}</ref>