Editing Programmer (section)

==Globalization==
{{Globalize|section|USA|2name=the United States|date=December 2010}}
===Market changes in the UK===
According to [[BBC News]], 17% of computer science students could not find work in their field six months after graduation in 2009 which was the highest rate of the university subjects surveyed while 0% of medical students were unemployed in the same survey.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10477551|title='One in 10' UK graduates jobless|first=Martin|last=Shankleman|work=BBC News|date=1 July 2010|access-date=13 March 2021|archive-date=8 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210308114340/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10477551|url-status=live}}</ref>

===Market changes in the US===
After the crash of the [[dot-com bubble]] (1999–2001) and the [[Great Recession]] (2008), many U.S. programmers were left without work or with lower wages.<ref name="bls-dotcom-2009">{{cite journal|last1=Mann|first1=Amar|last2=Nunes|first2=Tony|title=After the Dot-Com Bubble: Silicon Valley High-Tech Employment and Wages in 2001 and 2008|journal=Regional Report, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics|date=August 2009|pages=1–8|url=https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/after-the-dot-com-bubble-silicon-valley-high-tech-employment-and-wages-in-2001-and-2008.pdf|access-date=13 March 2021|archive-date=18 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210318063742/https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/after-the-dot-com-bubble-silicon-valley-high-tech-employment-and-wages-in-2001-and-2008.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="Charette2013">{{Cite web|url=https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth|url-access=subscription|title=The STEM Crisis is a Myth|last=Charette|first=Robert N.|date=30 August 2013|website=[[IEEE]]|publisher=IEEE|type=opinion|access-date=7 August 2021|archive-date=7 August 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210807061059/https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="auto1">{{cite web | url=https://spectrum.ieee.org/electrical-engineer-salary | title=Inflation-Adjusted Income for U.S. Engineers Drops - IEEE Spectrum }}</ref> In addition, enrollment in computer-related degrees and other STEM degrees (STEM attrition)<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2014001rev|title=STEM Attrition: College Students' Paths Into and Out of STEM Fields|date=26 November 2013|website=nces.ed.gov|access-date=13 March 2021|archive-date=18 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210318064654/https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2014001rev|url-status=live}}</ref> in the US has been dropping for years, especially for women,<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://developers.hp.com/public/blog/hp-international-womens-week-women-computer-science-dropping-1980s|title=hp's Developer Portal &#124; HP International Women's Week: Women in Computer Science dropping since 1980s|website=developers.hp.com|access-date=13 March 2021|archive-date=26 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210226000310/https://developers.hp.com/public/blog/hp-international-womens-week-women-computer-science-dropping-1980s|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="auto1"/> which, according to Beaubouef and Mason,<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Beaubouef|first1=Theresa|last2=Mason|first2=John|title=Why the high attrition rate for computer science students: some thoughts and observations|journal=ACM SIGCSE Bulletin|date=June 2005|volume=37|issue=2|pages=103–106|doi=10.1145/1083431.1083474|s2cid=207157501}}</ref> could be attributed to a lack of general interest in science and mathematics and also out of an apparent fear that programming will be subject to the same pressures as manufacturing and agriculture careers. For programmers, the [[U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics]] (BLS) Occupational Outlook originally predicted a growth for programmers of 12 percent from 2010 to 2020<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120915165836/http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm| archive-date=15 September 2012| title=Computer Programmers : Occupational Outlook Handbook : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics}}</ref> and thereafter a decline of -7 percent from 2016 to 2026, a further decline of -9 percent from 2019 to 2029, a decline of -10 percent from 2021 to 2031.<ref name="bls-ooh"/> and then a decline of -11 percent from 2022 to 2032.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm | title=Computer Programmers : Occupational Outlook Handbook|website= U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics }}</ref> Since computer programming can be done from anywhere in the world, companies sometimes hire programmers in countries where wages are lower.<ref name="bls-ooh"/> If domestic demand has increased, it is mainly to replace existing programmers who have retired or switched occupations.<ref name="auto"> {{Cite web |title=Software Developers, Quality Assurance Analysts, and Testers |url=https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm |access-date=2025-01-16 |website=Bureau of Labor Statistics |language=en-us}} </ref> However, for software developers BLS projects current growth at 17%<ref name="auto"/> that is down from their prediction from 2019 to 2029 of a 22% increase in employment, from 1,469,200 to 1,785,200 jobs with a median base salary of $110,000 per year. This prediction is lower than the earlier 2010 to 2020 predicted increase of 30% for software developers.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm|title=Software Developers, Quality Assurance Analysts, and Testers : Occupational Outlook Handbook : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics|website=www.bls.gov|access-date=29 July 2021|archive-date=14 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190514101520/https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130901135809/http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm|archive-date = 1 September 2013|title = Software Developers : Occupational Outlook Handbook|website= U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |date=July 18, 2012	}}</ref><ref name="Charette2013"/> Though the distinction is somewhat ambiguous, software developers engage in a wider array of aspects of application development and are generally higher skilled than programmers, making outsourcing less of a risk.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.rasmussen.edu/degrees/technology/blog/computer-programmer-vs-software-developer/ |first1=Ashley |last1=Brooks |date=2019 |title=Computer Programmer vs. Software Developer: Decoding the Differences|website=Rasmussen University |access-date=29 July 2021|archive-date=30 July 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210730055352/https://www.rasmussen.edu/degrees/technology/blog/computer-programmer-vs-software-developer/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://online.maryville.edu/blog/software-developer-vs-programmer/|title=Comparing Two Key Careers: Software Developer vs. Programmer|website=online.maryville.edu|date=31 July 2020|access-date=29 July 2021|archive-date=30 July 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210730055352/https://online.maryville.edu/blog/software-developer-vs-programmer/|url-status=live}}</ref> Another reason for the decline for programmers is their skills are being merged with other professions, such as developers, as employers increase the requirements for a position over time (i.e. [[Solution stack|Full-stack developer]]). Then there is the additional concern that recent advances in [[artificial intelligence]] might drastically<ref>{{cite news | last=Van Dam | first=Andrew | title=More than a quarter of computer-programming jobs just vanished. What happened? | newspaper=The Washington Post | date=2025-03-14 | url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/14/programming-jobs-lost-artificial-intelligence/ | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250314101535/https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/14/programming-jobs-lost-artificial-intelligence/ | archive-date=2025-03-14 | url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite web | last=Tan | first=Kwan Wei Kevin | title=Anthropic's CEO says that in 3 to 6 months, AI will be writing 90% of the code software developers were in charge of | website=Business Insider | date=2025-03-14 | url=https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ceo-ai-90-percent-code-3-to-6-months-2025-3 }}</ref> impact the demand for future generations of Software professions.<ref>{{Cite web|date=2023-04-06|title=Software engineer jobs in danger due to ChatGPT-like tools? Here's what Google CEO Sundar Pichai has to say|url=https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/story/software-engineer-jobs-in-danger-due-to-chatgpt-like-tools-heres-what-google-ceo-sundar-pichai-has-to-say-376341-2023-04-06|access-date=2023-05-12|website=Business Today|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|date=2023-01-25|title=ChatGPT could make these jobs obsolete|url=https://nypost.com/2023/01/25/chat-gpt-could-make-these-jobs-obsolete/|access-date=2023-05-12|language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Kay|first=Grace|title=Software engineers are panicking about being replaced by AI|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/software-engineers-tech-panicking-golden-age-over-chatgpt-ai-blind-2023-4|access-date=2023-05-12|website=Business Insider|language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Fowler|first=Gary|title=Council Post: How Will ChatGPT Affect Jobs?|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinessdevelopmentcouncil/2023/03/16/how-will-chatgpt-affect-jobs/|access-date=2023-05-12|website=Forbes|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Ito|first=Aki|title=ChatGPT spells the end of coding as we know it|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-ai-technology-end-of-coding-software-developers-jobs-2023-4|access-date=2023-05-12|website=Business Insider|language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|first1=Jacob |last1=Zinkula |first2=Aaron |last2=Mok |title=ChatGPT may be coming for our jobs. Here are the 10 roles that AI is most likely to replace.|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-jobs-at-risk-replacement-artificial-intelligence-ai-labor-trends-2023-02|access-date=2023-05-12|website=Business Insider|language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Cohen|first=Mikaela|title=These are the tech jobs most threatened by ChatGPT and A.I.|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/15/these-are-the-tech-jobs-most-threatened-by-chatgpt-and-ai.html|access-date=2023-05-12|website=CNBC|date=15 April 2023 |language=en}}</ref>

===Market changes in Japan===
As of 2024 in [[Japan]], the demand for programmers is increasing rapidly due mainly to the [[Aging of Japan|aging demographics]] of their workforce and their low birth rate not being sufficient for replacement has led to more use of [[AI]] to help fill the gap.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://japan-dev.com/blog/programming-in-japan | title=Programming in Japan: What's It Really Like? }}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.jetro.go.jp/en/invest/insights/japan-insight/ai-utilization.html | title="AI Utilization": Japan′s Unique Position to Become a World Leader &#124; Japan Insight - Insights - Investing in Japan - Japan External Trade Organization | date=2025 }}</ref> On the other hand, despite the fact that there are more than 1.2 million programmers in Japan as of 2020, more than 40% of Japanese companies say they do not have enough skilled and qualified IT personnel, including programmers; by 2030, the number of programmers will exceed 1.6 million, but about 800 000 people, including programmers, a shortage of engineers is expected to occur.<ref>{{Cite web |title=2030年に不足する79万人のIT人材は、 技術者・専門家だけとは限らない DX推進に欠かせない「3種の人財」の重要性 {{!}} ログミーBusiness |url=https://logmi.jp/brandtopics/330138 |access-date=2024-11-13 |website=logmi.jp |language=ja}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=kotamat |date=2022-09-15 |title=ITエンジニアが「人手不足」な理由 – 日本のITエンジニア人口と今後の不足見通し - 人材紹介マガジン |url=https://media.agent-bank.com/categories/strategy/itengineer |access-date=2024-11-13 |website=ITエンジニアが「人手不足」な理由 – 日本のITエンジニア人口と今後の不足見通し - 人材紹介マガジン |language=ja}}</ref>