Editing Sea surface temperature (section)

=== Recent increase due to climate change ===
[[File:1880- Global average sea surface temperature - global warming.svg|thumb|upright=1.2|The global average sea surface temperature has been increasing since around 1900 (graph showing annual average and 5-year smoothed average, relative to the average value for the years 1951-1980).]]
{{Further|Effects of climate change on oceans#Rising ocean temperature}}
Overall, scientists project that all regions of the oceans will warm by 2050, but models disagree for SST changes expected in the subpolar North Atlantic, the equatorial Pacific, and the Southern Ocean.<ref name="AR6_WG1_Chapter9" /> The future global mean SST increase for the period 1995-2014 to 2081-2100 is 0.86&nbsp;°C under the most modest greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and up to 2.89&nbsp;°C under the most severe emissions scenarios.<ref name="AR6_WG1_Chapter9" />

A study published in 2025 in ''[[Environmental Research Letters]]'' reported that global mean sea surface temperature increases had more than quadrupled, from 0.06{{nbsp}}K per decade during 1985–89 to 0.27{{nbsp}}K per decade for 2019–23.<ref name=EnvRschLtrs_20250128/> The researchers projected that the increase inferred over the past 40 years would likely be exceeded within the next 20 years.<ref name=EnvRschLtrs_20250128>{{cite journal |last1=Merchant |first1=Christopher J. |last2=Allan |first2=Richard P. |last3=Embury |first3=Owen |title=Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth's energy imbalance |journal=Environmental Research Letters |date=28 January 2025 |volume=20 |issue=2 |page=024037 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a|doi-access=free |bibcode=2025ERL....20b4037M }}</ref>