Editing Simpson's paradox (section)

==Psychology==
Psychological interest in Simpson's paradox seeks to explain why people{{who|date=August 2024}} deem sign reversal to be impossible at first.{{Clarify|date=August 2024}} The question is where people get this strong [[intuition]] from, and how it is encoded in the [[mind]].

Simpson's paradox demonstrates that this intuition cannot be derived from either [[classical logic]] or [[probability calculus]] alone, and thus led [[philosopher]]s to speculate that it is supported by an innate causal logic that guides people in reasoning about actions and their consequences.<ref name="pearl" /> Savage's [[sure-thing principle]]<ref name="blyth-72"/> is an example of what such logic may entail. A qualified version of Savage's sure thing principle can indeed be derived from Pearl's ''do''-calculus<ref name="pearl"/> and reads: "An action ''A'' that increases the probability of an event ''B'' in each subpopulation ''C<sub>i</sub>'' of ''C'' must also increase the probability of ''B'' in the population as a whole, provided that the action does not change the distribution of the subpopulations." This suggests that knowledge about actions and consequences is stored in a form resembling Causal [[Bayesian Networks]].