Editing Bible code (section)

==Criticism==

The precise order of consonantal letters represented in the Hebrew [[Masoretic Text]] is not consistent across manuscripts in any period. It is known from earlier versions, such as the [[Dead Sea Scrolls]], that the number of letters was not constant even in the first centuries CE. The Bible code theory thus does not seem to account for these variations.<ref>J. Scott Duvall, J. Daniel Hays, 2012, ''Grasping God's Word: A Hands-On Approach to Reading, Interpreting, and Applying the Bible'', p. 337. "The scholarly rebuttals to Bible codes have been devastating. These rebuttals have provided strong evidence that there is nothing mystical or divine about ELS. The arguments leveled against this method of finding secret messages fall into two basic categories: that relating to probability, and that relating to textual variations{{nbsp}}... Textual variations: Another flaw in the ELS approach is that its proponents seem unaware of variations in the text of the Old Testament{{nbsp}}..."</ref>

===Criticism of the original paper===

In 1999, Australian mathematician [[Brendan McKay (mathematician)|Brendan McKay]], Israeli mathematicians [[Dror Bar-Natan]] and [[Gil Kalai]], and Israeli psychologist [[Maya Bar-Hillel]] (collectively known as "MBBK") published a paper in ''[[Statistical Science]]'', in which they argued that the case of Witztum, Rips and Rosenberg (WRR) was "fatally defective, and that their result merely reflects on the choices made in designing their experiment and collecting the data for it."<ref>{{cite journal |author1=B. McKay |author2=D. Bar-Natan |author3=M. Bar-Hillel |author4=G. Kalai |name-list-style=amp|year=1999 |url=http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1009212243 |title=Solving the Bible Code Puzzle. Statistical Science 14 |journal=Statistical Science |volume=14 |issue=2 |pages= 150–173 |publisher=projecteuclid.org|doi=10.1214/ss/1009212243 |doi-access=free }}</ref> The MBBK paper was reviewed anonymously by four professional statisticians prior to publication. In the introduction to the paper, Robert Kass, the Editor of the Journal who previously had described the WRR paper as a "challenging puzzle" wrote that "considering the work of McKay, Bar-Natan, Kalai and Bar-Hillel as a whole it indeed appears, as they conclude, that the puzzle has been solved".<ref name="projecteuclid.org" />

From their observations, MBBK created an [[alternative hypothesis]] to explain the "puzzle" of how the codes were discovered. MBBK's argument was not strictly mathematical, rather it asserted that the WRR authors and contributors had intentionally:

# Selected the names and/or dates in advance, and;
# Designed their experiments to match their selection, thereby achieving their "desired" result.

The MBBK paper argued that the ELS experiment is extraordinarily sensitive to very small changes in the spellings of appellations, and the WRR result "merely reflects on the choices made in designing their experiment and collecting the data for it."

The MBBK paper demonstrated that this "tuning", when combined with what MBBK asserted was available "wiggle" room, was capable of generating a result similar to WRR's Genesis result in a Hebrew translation of ''[[War and Peace]]''. Bar-Hillel subsequently summarized the MBBK view that the WRR paper was a hoax, an intentionally and carefully designed "magic trick".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/Maya.html |title=Madness in the Method |date=December 1999 |author1=Maya Bar-Hillel |author2=Avishai Margali |name-list-style=amp |publisher=dartmouth.edu |access-date=October 6, 2010 |archive-date=July 29, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100729062047/http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/Maya.html |url-status=dead }}</ref>

===Replies to MBBK's criticisms===
====Harold Gans====

Harold Gans, a former [[cryptanalyst]] at the [[National Security Agency]], argued that MBBK's hypothesis implies a conspiracy between WRR and their co-contributors to fraudulently tune the appellations in advance. Gans argues that the conspiracy must include Doron Witztum, Eliyahu Rips, and S. Z. Havlin, because they all say Havlin compiled the appellations independently. Gans argues further that such a conspiracy must include the multiple rabbis who have written a letter confirming the accuracy of Havlin's list. Finally, argues Gans, such a conspiracy must also include the multiple participants of the cities experiment conducted by Gans (which includes Gans himself). Gans concludes that "the number of people necessarily involved in [the conspiracy] will stretch the credulity of any reasonable person."<ref>{{cite web |author=H. J. Gans. |url=http://www.aish.com/seminars/discovery/Codes/Primer/primer1.htm |title=A Primer on the Torah Codes Controversy for Laymen (part 1) |publisher= aish.com |access-date=April 7, 2008| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20080318163420/http://www.aish.com/seminars/discovery/Codes/Primer/primer1.htm| archive-date= March 18, 2008 | url-status= live}}</ref> Gans further argued that while "the mathematical issues are difficult for non-mathematicians to comprehend, I can summarize as follows: Professor McKay and his colleagues never claimed to have discovered real codes in those non-Torah texts. Their only "successful" results were obtained by deliberately rigging the experiment in such a way that the layman wouldn't recognize the mathematical flaws."<ref>{{cite web|url=https://jewishaction.com/jewish-world/people/up_close_with_harold_gans/|title=Up Close with Harold Gans|date=September 2, 2007|website=Jewish Action}}</ref>

Brendan McKay has replied that he and his colleagues have never accused Havlin or Gans of participating in a conspiracy. Instead, says McKay, Havlin likely did what WRR's early preprints stated he did, in providing "valuable advices". Similarly, McKay accepts Gans's statements that Gans did not prepare the data for his cities experiment himself. McKay concludes that "there is only ONE person who needs to have been involved in knowing fakery, and a handful of his disciples who must be involved in the cover-up (perhaps with good intent)."<ref>{{cite web |author=B. McKay |year=2003 |url=http://cs.anu.edu.au/~bdm/codes/StatSci/gans_rep.html |title=Brief notes on Gans Primer |publisher=cs.anu.edu.au |access-date=April 7, 2008}}</ref>

====WRR authors====

The WRR authors issued a series of responses regarding the claims of MBBK,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.torahcodes.co.il/debate1.htm |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20010309025007/http://www.torahcodes.co.il/debate1.htm |url-status=dead |archive-date=2001-03-09 |title=Refutations }}</ref> including the claim that no such tuning did or even could have taken place.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.torahcodes.co.il/havlin.htm |title=No such tuning |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071013123715/http://torahcodes.co.il/havlin.htm |archive-date=October 13, 2007 |df=mdy-all }}</ref> An earlier WRR response to a request by MBBK authors presented results from additional experiments that used the specific "alternate" name and date formats which MBBK suggested had been intentionally avoided by WRR.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.torahcodes.co.il/response.htm |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/19980701070057/http://www.torahcodes.co.il/response.htm |url-status=dead |archive-date=1998-07-01 |title=Response }}</ref> Using MBBK's alternates, the results WRR returned showed equivalent or better support for the existence of the codes, and so challenged the "wiggle room" assertion of MBBK. In the wake of the WRR response, author Bar-Natan issued a formal statement of non-response.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://cs.anu.edu.au/~bdm/dilugim/WNP/NoResponse.txt |title=Non-response |access-date=2010-05-02}}</ref> After a series of exchanges with McKay and Bar-Hillel, WRR author Witztum responded in a new paper<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.torahcodes.co.il/emanuel/eman_hb.htm|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070205210241/http://www.torahcodes.co.il/emanuel/eman_hb.htm|title=New Statistical Evidence for a Genuine Code in Genesis|archive-date=February 5, 2007|website=www.torahcodes.co.il}}</ref> claiming that McKay had used smoke screen tactics in creating several [[straw man]] arguments, and thereby avoided the points made by WRR authors refuting MBBK.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.torahcodes.co.il/dat2_hb.htm|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070209233127/http://www.torahcodes.co.il/dat2_hb.htm|title=Smoke Screen|archive-date=February 9, 2007|website=www.torahcodes.co.il}}</ref> Witztum also claimed that, upon interviewing a key independent expert contracted by McKay for the MBBK paper, some experiments performed for MBBK had validated, rather than refuted, the original WRR findings. Witzum questioned why MBBK had expunged these results. McKay replied to these claims.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://cs.anu.edu.au/~bdm/codes/StatSci/app_rep.html |title=Concerning Witztum's response to our article "Codes in War and Peace – a reply to Doron Witztum" |publisher=Cs.anu.edu.au |date=2001-06-15 |access-date=2010-05-02}}</ref>

No publication in a peer reviewed scientific journal has appeared refuting MBBK's paper. In 2006, four new Torah Codes papers were published at the [[IEEE Computer Society]]'s 18th International Conference on Pattern Recognition (ICPR'06).<ref>{{Cite journal|url=https://www.computer.org/csdl/proceedings/icpr/2006/12OmNApcuab|title=2006 18th International Conference on Pattern Recognition |date=August 8, 2006|volume=1|pages=i–iii|via=IEEE Xplore|doi=10.1109/ICPR.2006.10|url-access=subscription}}</ref>

====Robert Aumann====

[[Robert Aumann]], a [[game theory|game theorist]] and winner of the [[Nobel Prize in Economics]] in 2005, has followed the Bible code research and controversy for many years. He wrote:<ref>{{cite web |url=http://ratio.huji.ac.il/dp/dp_365.pdf |title=Analysis of the "Gans" Committee Report |access-date=2010-05-02 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060625075656/http://ratio.huji.ac.il/dp/dp_365.pdf |archive-date=June 25, 2006 |df=mdy-all }}</ref>

{{blockquote|Though the basic thesis of the research seems wildly improbable, for many years I thought that an ironclad case had been made for the codes; I did not see how 'cheating' could have been possible. Then came the work of the 'opponents' (see, for example, McKay, Bar-Natan, Bar-Hillel and Kalai, Statistical Science 14 (1999), 149–173). Though this work did not convince me that the data had been manipulated, it did convince me that it could have been; that manipulation was technically possible.}}

Following an analysis of the experiment and the dynamics of the controversy, stating for example that "almost everybody included [in the controversy] made up their mind early in the game", Aumann concluded:

{{blockquote|A priori, the thesis of the Codes research seems wildly improbable{{nbsp}}... Research conducted under my own supervision failed to confirm the existence of the codes – though it also did not establish their non-existence. So I must return to my a priori estimate, that the Codes phenomenon is improbable".<ref>^ Aumann, R.H., H. Furstenberg, I. Lapides, and D. Witztum (July 2004) (PDF). Analyses of the "Gans" Committee Report (#365). Center for the Study of Rationality, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. {{cite web |url=http://ratio.huji.ac.il/dp/dp_365.pdf |title=Archived copy |access-date=2010-05-02 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060625075656/http://ratio.huji.ac.il/dp/dp_365.pdf |archive-date=June 25, 2006 |df=mdy-all }}. Retrieved 2006-06-20.</ref>}}

====Robert Haralick====

[[Robert Haralick]], a Professor of Computer Science at the [[City University of New York]], has checked the Bible Code for many years and became convinced of its validity. He contributed a new experiment, checking whether, besides the minimal ELS – in which it was known that WRR's list was successful in Genesis and MBBK's list was successful in War and Peace – there were other, non-minimal ELSs where there is convergence between the rabbis' names and their respective dates. This had the effect of checking convergence found at 2nd minimal ELSs, 3rd minimal ELSs and so on. According to Haralick, the results were impressive; WRR's list was successful until the 20th minimal ELS, whereas MBBK's list failed after the 2nd minimal ELS.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Haralick |first=Robert M. |date=2003-10-29 |title=Torah Codes: Rudundant Encoding |url=https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=9884414ff8612a386b9419afc380680c5b3e05c5 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250523171535/https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=9884414ff8612a386b9419afc380680c5b3e05c5 |archive-date=2025-05-23 |access-date=2025-05-23 |publisher=City University of New York}}</ref> Haralick lectured on the subject in front of the participants of the International Conference on Pattern Recognition in 2006.<ref name=Torahcode>{{Cite web|url=http://torahcode.co.il/pdf_files/pub/har2.pdf|title=Testing The Torah Code Hypothesis: The Experimental Protocol}}</ref>

===Criticism of Michael Drosnin===

Journalist Drosnin's books<ref>{{Cite web |title=Scientists claim the Bible is written in code that predicts future events |url=https://bigthink.com/the-present/scientists-clai-the-bible-is-written-in-code-that-predicts-future-events/ |access-date=2022-06-22 |website=Big Think |language=en-US}}</ref> have been criticized by some who believe the Bible code is real but that it cannot predict the future.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.leaderu.com/orgs/probe/docs/bib-code.html |title=The Bible Code |publisher=Leaderu.com |access-date=2010-05-02}}</ref> On Drosnin's claim of [[Assassination of Yitzhak Rabin|Yitzhak Rabin's assassination]], Drosnin wrote in his book "The Bible Code" (1997) that "[[Yigal Amir]] could not be found in advance". Critics have noted a huge error in the "code" Drosnin claimed to have found: Drosnin misused the Biblical verse {{bibleverse|Deuteronomy|4:42}}. Scholars note; "For example, citing again the passage intersecting with Rabin: that passage is from Deuteronomy 4:42, but Drosnin ignores the words immediately following "a murderer who will murder." What comes next is the phrase "unwittingly" ({{Transliteration|he|biveli da'at}}). This is because the verse deals with the cities of refuge where accidental killers can find asylum. In this case, then, the message would refer to an accidental killing of (or by) Rabin and it would therefore be wrong. Another message (p.&nbsp;17) supposedly contains a "complete" description of the terrorist bombing of a bus in Jerusalem on February 25, 1996. It includes the phrase "fire, great noise," but overlooks the fact that the letters which make up those two words are actually part of a larger phrase from {{bibleverse|Genesis|35:4}} which says: "under the terebinth that was near Shechem." If the phrase does tell of a bus bombing, why not take it to indicate that it would be in Nablus, the site of ancient Shechem?"<ref>{{cite web |first=Jeffrey H. |last=Tigay |author-link=Jeffrey H. Tigay |date=October 13, 1999 |url=http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jtigay/codetext.html |title=The Bible "Codes": A Textual Perspective |website=Sas.upenn.edu |access-date=2010-05-02 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100515211813/http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jtigay/codetext.html |archive-date=May 15, 2010 |url-status=live}}</ref>

Drosnin also made a number of claims and alleged predictions that have since failed. Among the most important, Drosnin clearly states in his book "The Bible Code II", published on December 2, 2002, that there was to be a World War involving an "atomic holocaust" that would allegedly be the end of the world.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=KJAYraVzvCMC&q=2006 |title=Bible Code II: The Countdown |year=2001 |access-date=2010-05-02|isbn=978-0-14-200350-3|author1=Drosnin, Michael}}</ref> Another claim Drosnin makes in "The Bible Code II" is that the nation of Libya would develop weapons of mass destruction which would then be given to terrorists who would then use them to attack the West (specifically the United States).<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=KJAYraVzvCMC&q=Libya |title=Bible Code II: The Countdown |year=2001 |access-date=2010-05-02|isbn=978-0-14-200350-3|author1=Drosnin, Michael}}</ref> In reality, [[Libya]] improved relations with the West in 2003 and gave up all their existing weapons of mass destruction programs.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/1220-08.htm |title=Libya Gives Up Nuclear and Chemical Weapons |publisher=Commondreams.org |date=2003-12-20 |access-date=2010-05-02 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100628064041/http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/1220-08.htm |archive-date=June 28, 2010 |df=mdy-all }}</ref> A final claim Drosnin made in "The Bible Code II" was that Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat would allegedly be assassinated by being shot to death by gunmen which Drosnin specifically stated would be from the Palestinian Hamas movement.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=KJAYraVzvCMC&q=Arafat+Hamas |title=Bible Code II: The Countdown |year=2001 |access-date=2010-05-02|isbn=978-0-14-200350-3|author1=Drosnin, Michael}}</ref> This prediction by Drosnin also failed, as Yasser Arafat died on November 11, 2004<ref>{{cite news| url=http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/11/10/arafat.obit/index.html | work=CNN | title=Palestinian leader Arafat dies at 75 | date=November 11, 2004 | access-date=April 26, 2010| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20100601124116/http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/11/10/arafat.obit/index.html| archive-date= June 1, 2010 | url-status= live}}</ref> of what was later declared to be natural causes (specifically a stroke brought on by an unknown infection).<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.sfgate.com/health/article/Arafat-died-from-stroke-linked-to-infection-2610847.php |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120119090230/http://articles.sfgate.com/2005-09-08/news/17388635_1_medical-records-percy-army-teaching-hospital-unexplained-death-last-year |url-status=live |archive-date=January 19, 2012 |title=Arafat died from stroke linked to infection, records show / Review finds poisoning unlikely, rebuts rumor that Palestinian leader had AIDS|work=San Francisco Chronicle – SFGate|date=2003-12-14 |access-date=2010-05-02 | first1=Steven | last1=Erlanger | first2=Lawrence K. | last2=Altman}}</ref><ref>{{cite news| url=https://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/08/international/middleeast/08arafat.html?_r=2&n=Top%2FReference%2FTimes%20Topics%2FSubjects%2FP%2FPoisoning%20and%20Poisons&pagewanted=print | work=The New York Times | title=Medical Records Say Arafat Died From a Stroke | first1=Steven | last1=Erlanger | first2=Lawrence K. | last2=Altman | date=September 8, 2005 | access-date=April 26, 2010}}</ref>