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Conditional expectation
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=== Continuous random variables === Let <math>X</math> and <math>Y</math> be [[continuous random variable]]s with joint density <math>f_{X,Y}(x,y),</math> <math>Y</math>'s density <math>f_{Y}(y),</math> and conditional density <math>\textstyle f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y) = \frac{ f_{X,Y}(x,y) }{f_{Y}(y)}</math> of <math>X</math> given the event <math>Y=y.</math> The conditional expectation of <math>X</math> given <math>Y=y</math> is :<math> \begin{aligned} \operatorname{E} (X \mid Y=y) &= \int_{-\infty}^\infty x f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y) \, \mathrm{d}x \\ &= \frac{1}{f_Y(y)}\int_{-\infty}^\infty x f_{X,Y}(x,y) \, \mathrm{d}x. \end{aligned} </math> When the denominator is zero, the expression is undefined. Conditioning on a continuous random variable is not the same as conditioning on the event <math>\{ Y = y \}</math> as it was in the discrete case. For a discussion, see [[Conditional probability#Conditioning on an event of probability zero|Conditioning on an event of probability zero]]. Not respecting this distinction can lead to contradictory conclusions as illustrated by the [[Borel-Kolmogorov paradox]].
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