Editing Future (section)

===Forecasting===
{{Main|Forecasting}}

Forecasting is the process of [[Estimation|estimating]] outcomes in uncontrolled situations. Forecasting is applied in many areas, such as [[weather forecasting]], [[earthquake prediction]], [[transport planning]], and [[labour market]] planning. Due to the element of the unknown, [[risk]] and [[uncertainty]] are central to forecasting.

Statistically based forecasting employs [[time series]] with [[cross-sectional data|cross-sectional]] or [[longitudinal study|longitudinal]] data. [[Econometric]] forecasting methods use the assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast. If the causes are understood, projections of the influencing variables can be made and used in the forecast. Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions, and probability estimates, as in the case of the [[Delphi method]], [[scenario planning|scenario building]], and [[simulation]]s.

Prediction is similar to forecasting but is used more generally, for instance, to also include baseless claims on the future. Organized efforts to [[prediction|predict]] the future began with practices like [[astrology]], [[haruspicy]], and [[augury]]. These are all considered to be [[pseudoscience]] today, evolving from the human desire to know the future in advance.

Modern efforts such as [[futures studies]] attempt to predict technological and societal trends, while more ancient practices, such as weather forecasting, have benefited from [[Scientific modeling|scientific]] and [[causal model]]ling. Despite the development of [[cognition|cognitive]] instruments for the comprehension of future, the [[stochastic process|stochastic]] and [[Chaos theory|chaotic]] nature of many natural and social processes has made precise forecasting of the future elusive.