Editing Scientific method (section)

===Hypothesis development===
{{Main|Hypothesis formation}}
<blockquote>{{Anchor|DNA-hypotheses}}[[File:DNA icon.svg|frameless|22x22px|link=|alt=DNA label]] [[Linus Pauling]] proposed that DNA might be a [[triple helix]].<ref>{{harvp|McElheny|2004|p=40}}: October 1951 — "That's what a helix should look like!" Crick exclaimed in delight (This is the Cochran-Crick-Vand-Stokes theory of the transform of a helix).</ref><ref>
{{harvp|Judson|1979|p=157}}. {{"'}}The structure that we propose is a three-chain structure, each chain being a helix' – Linus Pauling"</ref> This hypothesis was also considered by [[Francis Crick]] and [[James D. Watson]] but discarded. When Watson and Crick learned of Pauling's hypothesis, they understood from existing data that Pauling was wrong.<ref>
{{harvp|McElheny|2004|pp=49–50}}: January 28, 1953 — Watson read Pauling's pre-print, and realized that in Pauling's model, DNA's phosphate groups had to be un-ionized. But DNA is an acid, which contradicts Pauling's model.
</ref> and that Pauling would soon admit his difficulties with that structure.</blockquote>

{{Anchor|Hypothesis}}A [[hypothesis]] is a suggested explanation of a phenomenon, or alternately a reasoned proposal suggesting a possible correlation between or among a set of phenomena. Normally, hypotheses have the form of a [[mathematical model]]. Sometimes, but not always, they can also be formulated as [[existential quantification|existential statements]], stating that some particular instance of the phenomenon being studied has some characteristic and causal explanations, which have the general form of [[universal quantification|universal statements]], stating that every instance of the phenomenon has a particular characteristic.

Scientists are free to use whatever resources they have – their own creativity, ideas from other fields, [[inductive reasoning]], [[Bayesian inference]], and so on – to imagine possible explanations for a phenomenon under study. {{anchor|noLogicalBridge}}Albert Einstein once observed that "there is no logical bridge between phenomena and their theoretical principles."<ref>{{cite book |last1=Einstein |first1=Albert |title=The World as I See It |date=1949 |publisher=Philosophical Library |location=New York |pages=24–28}}</ref>{{efn|name= leapIsInvolved |"A leap is involved in all thinking" —John Dewey<ref>{{harvp|Dewey|1910|p=26}}</ref> }} [[Charles Sanders Peirce]], borrowing a page from [[Aristotle]] (''[[Prior Analytics]]'', [[Inquiry#Abduction|2.25]])<ref name="aristotleAbduction">[https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Organon_(Owen)/Prior_Analytics/Book_2#Chapter_25 Aristotle (trans. 1853) ''Prior Analytics'' 2.25] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210910034741/https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Organon_(Owen)/Prior_Analytics/Book_2#Chapter_25 |date=2021-09-10  }} via Wikisource</ref> described the incipient stages of [[inquiry]], instigated by the "irritation of doubt" to venture a plausible guess, as ''[[abductive reasoning]]''.<ref name="How">{{cite wikisource|title=How to Make Our Ideas Clear|first=Charles Sanders|last=Peirce|year=1877|wslink=How to Make Our Ideas Clear|volume=12|pages=286–302|journal=Popular Science Monthly}}</ref>{{rp|II, p.290}} The history of science is filled with stories of scientists claiming a "flash of inspiration", or a hunch, which then motivated them to look for evidence to support or refute their idea. [[Michael Polanyi]] made such creativity the centerpiece of his discussion of methodology.

[[William Glen (geologist and historian)|William Glen]] observes that{{sfnp|Glen|1994|pp=37–38}}

{{Blockquote|text=the success of a hypothesis, or its service to science, lies not simply in its perceived "truth", or power to displace, subsume or reduce a predecessor idea, but perhaps more in its ability to stimulate the research that will illuminate&nbsp;... bald suppositions and areas of vagueness.|author= William Glen|title= ''The Mass-Extinction Debates'' }}

In general, scientists tend to look for theories that are "[[Elegance|elegant]]" or "[[beauty|beautiful]]". Scientists often use these terms to refer to a theory that is following the known facts but is nevertheless relatively simple and easy to handle. [[Occam's Razor]] serves as a rule of thumb for choosing the most desirable amongst a group of equally explanatory hypotheses.

To minimize the [[confirmation bias]] that results from entertaining a single hypothesis, [[strong inference]] emphasizes the need for entertaining multiple alternative hypotheses,<ref name="platt">{{cite journal |last=Platt |first=John R. |author-link=John R. Platt |date=16 October 1964 |title=Strong Inference |journal=Science |volume=146 |issue=3642 |pages=347– |doi=10.1126/science.146.3642.347|pmid=17739513 |bibcode=1964Sci...146..347P }}</ref> and avoiding artifacts.<ref name= sn1987a>[[Leon Lederman]], for teaching [[physics first]], illustrates how to avoid confirmation bias: [[Ian Shelton]], in Chile, was initially skeptical that [[supernova 1987a]] was real, but possibly an artifact of instrumentation (null hypothesis), so he went outside and disproved his null hypothesis by observing SN 1987a with the naked eye. The [[Kamiokande]] experiment, in Japan, independently observed [[neutrino]]s from [[SN 1987a]] at the same time.</ref>