Editing Superintelligence (section)

== Forecasts ==
Most surveyed AI researchers expect machines to eventually be able to rival humans in intelligence, though there is little consensus on when this will likely happen. At the 2006 [[AI@50]] conference, 18% of attendees reported expecting machines to be able "to simulate learning and every other aspect of human intelligence" by 2056; 41% of attendees expected this to happen sometime after 2056; and 41% expected machines to never reach that milestone.<ref>{{cite web|last1=Maker|first1=Meg Houston|title=AI@50: First Poll|url=http://www.megmaker.com/2006/07/ai50_first_poll.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140513052243/http://www.megmaker.com/2006/07/ai50_first_poll.html|archive-date=2014-05-13|date=July 13, 2006}}</ref>

In a survey of the 100 most cited authors in AI (as of May 2013, according to Microsoft academic search), the median year by which respondents expected machines "that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human" (assuming no [[global catastrophic risks|global catastrophe]] occurs) with 10% confidence is 2024 (mean 2034, st. dev. 33 years), with 50% confidence is 2050 (mean 2072, st. dev. 110 years), and with 90% confidence is 2070 (mean 2168, st. dev. 342 years). These estimates exclude the 1.2% of respondents who said no year would ever reach 10% confidence, the 4.1% who said 'never' for 50% confidence, and the 16.5% who said 'never' for 90% confidence. Respondents assigned a median 50% probability to the possibility that machine superintelligence will be invented within 30 years of the invention of approximately human-level machine intelligence.{{sfn|Müller|Bostrom|2016|pp=3–4, 6, 9–12}}

In a 2022 survey, the median year by which respondents expected "High-level machine intelligence" with 50% confidence is 2061. The survey defined the achievement of high-level machine intelligence as when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers.<ref>{{Cite web |title=AI timelines: What do experts in artificial intelligence expect for the future? |url=https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines |access-date=2023-08-09 |website=Our World in Data|date=7 February 2023 |last1=Roser |first1=Max }}</ref>

In 2023, [[OpenAI]] leaders [[Sam Altman]], [[Greg Brockman]] and [[Ilya Sutskever]] published recommendations for the governance of superintelligence, which they believe may happen in less than 10 years.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Governance of superintelligence |url=https://openai.com/blog/governance-of-superintelligence |access-date=2023-05-30 |website=openai.com |language=en-US}}</ref> In 2024, Ilya Sutskever left OpenAI to cofound the startup [[Safe Superintelligence Inc.|Safe Superintelligence]], which focuses solely on creating a superintelligence that is [[AI safety|safe]] by design, while avoiding "distraction by management overhead or product cycles".<ref>{{Cite web |last=Vance |first=Ashlee |date=June 19, 2024 |title=Ilya Sutskever Has a New Plan for Safe Superintelligence |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/openai-co-founder-plans-new-ai-focused-research-lab |access-date=2024-06-19 |website=Bloomberg}}</ref> Despite still offering no product, the startup became valued at $30 billion in February 2025.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-02-24 |title=There's Something Very Weird About This $30 Billion AI Startup by a Man Who Said Neural Networks May Already Be Conscious |url=https://futurism.com/ilya-sutskever-safe-superintelligence-product |access-date=2025-04-27 |website=Futurism}}</ref> In 2025, the forecast scenario "AI 2027" led by [[Daniel Kokotajlo (researcher)|Daniel Kokotakjlo]] predicted rapid progress in the automation of coding and AI research, followed by ASI.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Roose |first=Kevin |date=2025-04-03 |title=This A.I. Forecast Predicts Storms Ahead |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/technology/ai-futures-project-ai-2027.html |access-date=2025-04-27 |work=The New York Times |language=en-US |issn=0362-4331}}</ref>