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Butterfly effect
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==== Finite predictability in chaotic systems ==== According to Lighthill (1986),<ref>{{Cite journal |date=1986-09-08 |title=The recently recognized failure of predictability in Newtonian dynamics |url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1986.0082 |journal=Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences |volume=407 |issue=1832 |pages=35β50 |doi=10.1098/rspa.1986.0082 |bibcode=1986RSPSA.407...35L |s2cid=86552243 |issn=0080-4630 |last1=Lighthill |first1=James }}</ref> the presence of SDIC (commonly known as the butterfly effect) implies that chaotic systems have a finite predictability limit. In a literature review,<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Shen |first1=Bo-Wen |last2=Pielke |first2=Roger A. |last3=Zeng |first3=Xubin |last4=Zeng |first4=Xiping |date=2023-07-22 |title=Lorenz's View on the Predictability Limit of the Atmosphere |journal=Encyclopedia |language=en |volume=3 |issue=3 |pages=887β899 |doi=10.3390/encyclopedia3030063 |issn=2673-8392 |doi-access=free }}{{Creative Commons text attribution notice|cc=by4|from this source=yes}}</ref> it was found that Lorenz's perspective on the predictability limit can be condensed into the following statement: * (A). The Lorenz 1963 model qualitatively revealed the essence of a finite predictability within a chaotic system such as the atmosphere. However, it did not determine a precise limit for the predictability of the atmosphere. * (B). In the 1960s, the two-week predictability limit was originally estimated based on a doubling time of five days in real-world models. Since then, this finding has been documented in Charney et al. (1966)<ref>{{Cite book |date=1966-01-01 |title=The Feasibility of a Global Observation and Analysis Experiment |url=http://dx.doi.org/10.17226/21272 |doi=10.17226/21272|isbn=978-0-309-35922-1 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=GARP |date=1969-03-01 |title=A Guide to GARP |journal=Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. |volume=50 |issue=3 |pages=136β141|doi=10.1175/1520-0477-50.3.136 |bibcode=1969BAMS...50..136. |doi-access=free }}</ref> and has become a consensus. Recently, a short video has been created to present Lorenz's perspective on predictability limit.<ref>{{Cite web |last1=Shen |first1=Bo-Wen |last2=Pielke, Sr. |first2=Roger |last3=Zeng |first3=Xubin |last4=Zeng |first4=Xiping |date=2023-09-13 |title=Lorenz's View on the Predictability Limit. |url=https://encyclopedia.pub/video/video_detail/916 |access-date=2023-09-13 |website=Encyclopedia pub}}</ref> A recent study refers to the two-week predictability limit, initially calculated in the 1960s with the Mintz-Arakawa model's five-day doubling time, as the "Predictability Limit Hypothesis."<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Shen |first1=Bo-Wen |last2=Pielke |first2=Roger A. |last3=Zeng |first3=Xubin |last4=Zeng |first4=Xiping |date=2024-07-16 |title=Exploring the Origin of the Two-Week Predictability Limit: A Revisit of Lorenz's Predictability Studies in the 1960s |journal=Atmosphere |language=en |volume=15 |issue=7 |pages=837 |doi=10.3390/atmos15070837 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2024Atmos..15..837S |issn=2073-4433}}</ref> Inspired by Moore's Law, this term acknowledges the collaborative contributions of Lorenz, Mintz, and Arakawa under Charney's leadership. The hypothesis supports the investigation into extended-range predictions using both partial differential equation (PDE)-based physics methods and Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques.
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