Editing Economic forecasting (section)

===Forecasts and the Great Recession===
The financial and economic [[Great Recession|crisis]] that erupted in 2007—arguably the worst since the [[Great Depression|Great Depression of the 1930s]]—was not foreseen by most forecasters, though a number of analysts had been predicting it for some time (for example, [[Stephen S. Roach|Stephen Roach]], [[Meredith Whitney]], [[Gary Shilling]], [[Peter Schiff]], [[Marc Faber]], [[Nouriel Roubini]], [[Brooksley Born]], and [[Robert Shiller]]).<ref>{{citation|url=https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/interviews/levitt.html#2#ixzz1Ydw4pnGS |title=The Warning: Interviews- Arthur Levitt|publisher=[[Public Broadcasting Service]]|series=[[Frontline (U.S. TV series)|Frontlines]]|type=Broadcast documentary transcript|editor=Michael Kirk|editor-link=Michael Kirk|last=Levitt|first=Arthur|date=2009-10-20}}</ref> The failure of the majority of them to forecast the "[[Great Recession]]" caused soul searching in the profession. The UK's Queen Elizabeth herself asked why had “nobody” noticed that the credit crunch was on its way, and a group of economists—experts from business, the City, its regulators, academia, and government—tried to explain in a letter.<ref>[http://www.britac.ac.uk/events/archive/forum-economy.cfm British Academy-The Global Financial Crisis Why Didn't Anybody Notice?-Retrieved July 27, 2015] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150707135349/http://www.britac.ac.uk/events/archive/forum-economy.cfm |date=July 7, 2015 }}</ref>

It was not just forecasting the Great Recession, but also forecasting its impact where it was clear that economists struggled. 

For example, in Singapore Citi argued the country would experience "the most severe recession in Singapore’s history". The economy grew in 2009 by 3.1% and in 2010, the nation saw a 15.2% growth rate.<ref name=":62">{{Cite journal|last1=Chen|first1=Xiaoping|last2=Shao|first2=Yuchen|date=2017-09-11|title=Trade policies for a small open economy: The case of Singapore|journal=The World Economy|doi=10.1111/twec.12555|s2cid=158182047 |issn=0378-5920}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite news|last=Subler|first=Jason|date=2009-01-02|title=Factories slash output, jobs around world|language=en|work=Reuters|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-idUSTRE4B70ME20090102|access-date=2020-09-20}}</ref> Similarly, [[Nouriel Roubini]] predicted in January 2009 that oil prices would stay below $40 for all of 2009. By the end of 2009, however, oil prices were at $80.<ref name=listen/><ref>Eric Tyson (2018). [https://books.google.com/books?id=Uch1DwAAQBAJ&dq=%22nouriel+roubini%22+%22wrong%22&pg=PT212 ''Personal Finance For Dummies'']</ref>  In March 2009, he predicted the [[S&P 500]] would fall below 600 that year, and possibly plummet to 200.<ref name=listen>Joe Keohane (January 9, 2011). [http://archive.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/01/09/that_guy_who_called_the_big_one_dont_listen_to_him/?page=full "That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him."] ''[[The Boston Globe]]''.</ref><ref>[[Maneet Ahuja]] (2014). [https://books.google.com/books?id=9fUwBgAAQBAJ&dq=%22nouriel+roubini%22+%22wrong%22&pg=PA164 ''The Alpha Masters; Unlocking the Genius of the World's Top Hedge Funds'']</ref> It closed at over 1,115, up 24%, the largest single year gain since 2003.<ref>[https://www.latimes.com/archives/blogs/money-company/story/2009-04-08/roubini-to-cramer-just-shut-up "Roubini to Cramer: ‘Just shut up’"], ''[[The Los Angeles Times]]'', April 8, 2009.</ref> In 2009 he also predicted that the US government would take over and nationalize a number of large banks; it did not happen.<ref>Joseph Lazzaro (March 26, 2009). [https://www.aol.com/2009/03/26/dr-doom-predicts-some-big-banks-will-be-nationalized/ "'Dr. Doom' predicts some big banks will be nationalized,"] [[AOL.com]].</ref><ref name=II>Alice Guy (January 16, 2023). [https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/seven-times-experts-got-it-very-wrong-economy-ii526599 "Seven times the experts got it very wrong on the economy,"] ''[[Interactive Investor]]''.</ref> In October 2009 he predicted that gold "can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30%”; he was wrong, as the price of gold rose over the next 18 months, breaking through the $1,000 barrier to over $1,400.<ref name=II/>  Although in May 2010 he predicted a 20% decline in the stock market, the S&P actually rose about 20% over the course of the next year (even excluding returns from dividends).<ref>Larry Swedroe (May 20, 2011).  [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nouriel-roubini-misses-another-prediction/ "Nouriel Roubini Misses Another Prediction,"] ''[[CBS News]]''.</ref>