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Elliott wave principle
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==Criticism== [[Benoit Mandelbrot]], who developed mathematical models of market pricing based on [[fractal geometry]], expressed caution about the validity of wave models:<ref>Mandelbrot, Benoit and Richard L. Hudson (2004). ''The (Mis)Behavior of Markets'', New York: Basic Books, p. 245.</ref> {{blockquote|But Wave prediction is a very uncertain business. It is an art to which the subjective judgment of the chartists matters more than the objective, replicable verdict of the numbers. The record of this, as of most technical analysis, is at best mixed.}} Critics warn that the wave principle is too vague to be useful, since practitioners cannot consistently identify the beginning or end of waves, resulting in forecasts prone to subjective revisions. Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:<ref>Aronson, David R. (2006). [http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470008741,descCd-authorInfo.html ''Evidence-Based Technical Analysis''], Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons, p. 61. {{ISBN|978-0-470-00874-4}}.</ref> {{blockquote|The Elliott wave principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-[[Copernican Revolution|Copernican]] astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.}} Some analysts consider the Elliott wave principle as too dated to be applicable in today's markets, as explained by financial market analyst Glenn Neely, author of ''Mastering Elliott Wave'':<ref name=":0" /> {{blockquote|Elliott wave was an incredible discovery for its time. But, as technologies, governments, economies, and social systems have changed, the behavior of people has also. These changes have affected the wave patterns R. N. Elliott discovered. Consequently, strict application of orthodox Elliott wave concepts to current day markets skews forecasting accuracy. Markets have evolved, but Elliott has not.}}
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