Editing Path dependence (section)

==Social sciences==

=== Institutions ===
{{see also|Historical institutionalism}}

Recent methodological work in comparative politics and sociology has adapted the concept of path dependence into analyses of political and social phenomena. Path dependence has primarily been used in [[Historical comparative research|comparative-historical]] analyses of the development and persistence of [[institutions]], whether they be social, political, or cultural. There are arguably two types of path-dependent processes:

* One is the [[critical juncture theory |critical juncture]] framework, most notably utilized by Ruth and David Collier in [[political science]]. In the critical [[wiktionary:juncture|juncture]], [[Antecedent (logic)|antecedent]] conditions allow [[Contingency (philosophy)|contingent]] choices that set a specific trajectory of [[institutional]] development and consolidation that is difficult to reverse. As in economics, the generic drivers are: lock-in, [[positive feedback]], [[increasing returns]] (the more a choice is made, the bigger its benefits), and [[self-reinforcement]] (which creates forces sustaining the decision).<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Page|first=Scott E.|date=2006-01-26|title=Path Dependence|url=http://dev.wcfia.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/Page2006.pdf|journal=Quarterly Journal of Political Science|volume=1|issue=1|pages=87–115|doi=10.1561/100.00000006|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160629130434/http://dev.wcfia.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/Page2006.pdf|archive-date=2016-06-29}}</ref>
* The other path-dependent process deals with reactive sequences where a primary event sets off a temporally-linked and causally-tight [[deterministic]] chain of events that is nearly uninterruptible. These reactive sequences have been used to link such things as the [[assassination of Martin Luther King Jr.]] with welfare expansion, or the [[Industrial Revolution]] in [[England]] with the development of the [[steam engine]].

The critical juncture framework has been used to explain the development and persistence of [[welfare states]], labor incorporation in [[Latin America]], and the variations in [[economic development]] between countries, among other things.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Hogan |first1=John |title=The Critical Juncture Concept's Evolving Capacity to Explain Policy Change |journal=European Policy Analysis |date=2019 |volume=5 |issue=2 |pages=170–189 |doi=10.1002/epa2.1057 |s2cid=159425364 |url=https://doi.org/10.1002/epa2.1057 |language=en |issn=2380-6567}}</ref> Scholars such as Kathleen Thelen caution that the [[historical determinism]] in path-dependent frameworks is subject to constant disruption from [[Institutional economics|institutional evolution]].

Kathleen Thelen has criticized the application of QWERTY keyboard-style mechanisms to politics. She argues that such applications to politics are both too contingent and too deterministic. Too contingent in the sense that the initial choice is open and flukey, and too deterministic in the sense that once the initial choice is made, an unavoidable path inevitably forms from which there is no return.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Thelen|first=Kathleen|date=1999|title=Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Politics|journal=Annual Review of Political Science|volume=2|issue=1|pages=369–404|doi=10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.369|issn=1094-2939|doi-access=free}}</ref>

Based on the theory of path dependence, Monika Stachowiak-Kudła and Janusz Kudła show that legal tradition affects the administrative court’s rulings in Poland. It also complements the two other reasons for diversified verdicts: the experience of the judges and courts (specialization) and preference (bias) for one of the parties. This effect is persistent even if the verdicts are controversial and result in serious consequences for a party and when the penalty paid by the complainant is perceived as excessive but fulfilling the strict rules of law. The German tradition of law favours legal certainty, while the courts from the former Russian and Austrian partitions are more likely to refer to the principle of justice. Interestingly, the institutional factors can be identified almost one hundred years after the end of the partition period and the unification of formal and material law, corroborating the existence of path dependence.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Stachowiak-Kudła |first=Monika |last2=Kudła |first2=Janusz |date=2022-09-01 |title=Path dependence in administrative adjudication: the role played by legal tradition |url=https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10602-021-09352-8 |journal=Constitutional Political Economy |language=en |volume=33 |issue=3 |pages=301–325 |doi=10.1007/s10602-021-09352-8 |issn=1572-9966}} </ref>{{Relevance inline|date=May 2025|reason=This does not seem relevant to the article. Path dependence is a special case of contingency. It is not reducible to "something in the past affects something in the future." For this to corroborate path dependence, it would have to demonstrate that there is compelling reason for Polish courts to change, but they are "locked in" by tradition. For all we know, they would adopt German principles, if German principles were objectively better.

So this is empirical evidence for historical contingency, not for path dependence. Cases of path dependence involve some purported inefficiency, like Dvorak supposedly being better than QWERTY but being unable to achieve widespread adoption due to network effects favoring QWERTY. In other words, one product is better than the other, but history constrains its adoption. Is German law objectively better than Austrian law? If not, we can't say history is constraining its adoption. It could just be that both traditions are serviceable, so there's no reason to adopt some other community's tradition.

Each community has its own traditions, but that doesn't mean all its traditions are "locked in." Communities change traditions all the time. Entire languages disappear. What language you speak is contingent on history, but that doesn't mean you can't learn a new language if there's good enough reason to.

This is why path dependence is so hard to empirically test. How do you know history is preventing some change from being made? You'd have to know that that change would be made, but for historical factors. So it's not merely that the current state of affairs is the result of past states of affairs (a trivial statement), it's that the current state of affairs is "locked in" by past states of affairs. Something should change, but it can't change, due to historical happenstance.}} 

=== Organizations ===
[[Paul Pierson]]'s influential attempt{{specify|date=March 2017}} to [[Validity (logic)|rigorously formalize]] path dependence within political science, draws partly on ideas from economics. Herman Schwartz has questioned those efforts, arguing that forces analogous to those identified in the economic literature are not pervasive in the political realm, where the strategic exercise of power gives rise to, and transforms, institutions.

Especially [[sociology]] and [[organizational theory]], a distinct yet closely related concept to path dependence is the concept of [[Imprinting (organizational theory)|imprinting]] which captures how initial environmental conditions leave a persistent mark (or imprint) on organizations and organizational collectives (such as industries and communities), thus continuing to shape organizational behaviours and outcomes in the long run, even as external environmental conditions change.<ref name="Marquis">
{{cite journal |last1=Marquis |first1=Christopher |last2=Tilcsik |first2=András |title=Imprinting: Toward A Multilevel Theory |pages=193–243 |journal=[[Academy of Management Annals]] |year=2013 |ssrn=2198954}}</ref>

=== Individuals and groups ===
The path dependence of [[Strategy dynamics#The Dynamic Model of the Strategy Process|emergent strategy]] has been observed in behavioral [[experimental economics|experiments]] with individuals and [[Institutional memory|groups]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Egidi |first1=Massimo |last2=Narduzzo |first2=Alessandro |date=October 1997 |title=The emergence of path-dependent behaviors in cooperative contexts |journal=International Journal of Industrial Organization |volume=15 |issue=6 |pages=677–709 |url= http://www-ceel.economia.unitn.it/papers/lyon.html |doi=10.1016/S0167-7187(97)00007-6 |quote=&#91;Some test subjects&#93; adopted a strategy once and for all&#91;,&#93; and insisted on using it&#91;,&#93; even when the configurations could not be efficiently played with the strategy adopted.}}</ref>