Editing Prediction (section)

== Finance ==
{{main|Financial forecasting|Stock market prediction}}
[[File:Augur, decentralized prediction market platform.png|thumb|right|220px|[[Prediction market]]]]

Mathematical models of [[stock market]] behaviour (and economic behaviour in general) are also unreliable in predicting future behaviour. Among other reasons, this is because economic events may span several years, and the world is changing over a similar time frame, thus invalidating the relevance of past observations to the present. Thus there are an extremely small number (of the order of 1) of relevant past data points from which to project the future. In addition, it is generally believed that stock market prices already take into account all the information available to predict the future, and subsequent movements must therefore be the result of unforeseen events. Consequently, it is extremely difficult for a [[stock investor]] to [[Foresight (psychology)|anticipate]] or predict a [[stock market boom]], or a [[stock market crash]]. In contrast to predicting the actual stock return, forecasting of broad [[Economic forecasting|economic trend]]s tends to have better accuracy. Such analysis is provided by both non-profit groups as well as by for-profit private institutions.{{citation needed|date=January 2019}}

Some correlation has been seen between actual stock market movements and prediction data from large groups in surveys and prediction games.

An [[actuary]] uses [[actuarial science]] to assess and predict future business [[risk]], such that the risk(s) can be [[Emergency management|mitigated]]. For example, in [[insurance]] an actuary would use a [[Actuarial table|life table]] (which incorporates the historical experience of mortality rates and sometimes an estimate of future trends) to project [[life expectancy]].