Editing Recession (section)

==Predictors==
[[File:US Treasury interest rates.webp|thumb|300px|[[United States Treasury security|US Treasury]] interest rates compared to [[Federal funds rate|Federal Funds Rate]]. When the short term  interest rates get above the long term interest rates it is known as an [[Inverted yield curve]].  When the [[Federal Reserve|Fed]] raises the Federal Funds Rate it pushes up the shorter term interest rates.
{{legend-line|black solid 3px|[[Federal funds rate|Federal Funds Rate]]}}
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[[File:Job seekers ratio.webp|thumb|300px|The [[JOLTS report]] job seekers ratio
{{legend|#0714FF|Cold job market}}
{{legend|#2A9B00|Balanced job market}}
{{legend|#BA3117|Hot job market}}
]]
[[File:Sahm rule.webp|thumb|[[Sahm rule]] 1949-2024]]

Recessions are very challenging to predict. While some variables like the [[Inverted yield curve|(inverted) yield curve]] appear to be more useful to predict a recession ahead of time than other variables, no single variable has proven to be an always reliable predictor whether recessions will actually (soon) appear, let alone predicting their sharpness and severity in terms of duration.<ref name="auto"/> The longest and deepest Treasury yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased the [[fed funds rate]] to combat the [[2021–2023 inflation surge]]. Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be a reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined; [[Deutsche Bank]] analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Peck |first1=Emily |title=Why everyone was so wrong about the 2023 economy |url=https://www.axios.com/2023/12/22/2023-economy-predictions-wrong-recession |work=[[Axios (website)|Axios]] |date=December 22, 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Barbuscia |first1=Davide |title=US yield curve nears flip with jury out on recession signal |url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/us-yield-curve-nears-flip-with-jury-out-recession-signal-2024-07-29/#:~:text=%22Right%20now%2C%20as%20the%20yield,previous%20inversion%20record%20from%201978. |publisher=Reuters |date=July 29, 2024}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity |url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y |publisher=[[Federal Reserve Economic Data]]}}</ref> The following variables and indicators are used by economists, like e.g. [[Paul Krugman]] or [[Joseph Stiglitz]], to try to predict the possibility of a recession:
* The U.S. Conference Board's Present Situation Index year-over-year change turns negative by more than 15 points before a recession.<ref>[http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/09/consumer-confidence-a-useful-indicator-of-the-labor-market.html Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of ... the Labor Market?] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200514142406/http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/09/consumer-confidence-a-useful-indicator-of-the-labor-market.html |date=14 May 2020 }}
Jason Bram, Robert Rich, and Joshua Abel ... Conference Board's Present Situation Index {{PD-notice}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.journal.ky/2017/01/04/wall-street-starts-2017-with-tailwind/ |title=Wall Street starts 2017 with tailwind {{!}} By Juergen Buettner {{!}} 4 January 2017 {{!}} Chart 1: Consumer Confidence Index and Historically Shocks |access-date=14 February 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200428182941/https://www.journal.ky/2017/01/04/wall-street-starts-2017-with-tailwind/ |archive-date=28 April 2020 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref>[https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradmcmillan/2019/06/27/consumer-confidence-drops-why-does-it-matter Consumer Confidence Drops – Why Does It Matter?] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200318004902/https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradmcmillan/2019/06/27/consumer-confidence-drops-why-does-it-matter |date=18 March 2020 }} Forbes. 27 June 2019. Brad McMillan.</ref>
* The U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator year-over-year change turns negative before a recession.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gundlach-recession-prediction-030834565.html|title=Gundlach: We don't see a recession on the horizon. But there's bad news...|date=14 February 2019 |publisher=Yahoo! Finance|access-date=25 September 2019|archive-date=25 September 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190925132309/https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gundlach-recession-prediction-030834565.html|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4293195-take-leader-analyzing-latest-leading-indicators|title=Seeking Alpha {{pipe}} Take Me To Your Leader: Analyzing The Latest Leading Indicators {{pipe}} by −1.9% {{pipe}} 24 September 2019}}</ref>
* When the CFNAI Diffusion Index drops below the value of −0.35, then there is an {{em|increased probability}} of the beginning a recession. Usually, the signal happens in the three months of the recession. The CFNAI Diffusion Index signal tends to happen about one month before a related signal by the CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) drops below the −0.7 level. The CFNAI-MA3 correctly identified the 7 recessions between March 1967 – August 2019, while triggering only 2 false alarms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/cfnai/background/cfnai-background-pdf.pdf|title=Background on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index {{pipe}} Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago {{pipe}} 19 September 2019|access-date=25 September 2019|archive-date=14 May 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200514220558/https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/cfnai/background/cfnai-background-pdf.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref>

Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors.{{cn|date=August 2024}} Analysis by [[Prakash Loungani]] of the [[International Monetary Fund]] found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-25/grim-stock-signals-piling-up-as-wall-street-mulls-recession-odds |title=Grim Stock Signals Piling Up as Wall Street Mulls Recession Odds |publisher=Bloomberg L.P. |date=25 November 2018 |access-date=26 November 2018 |archive-date=4 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200304092128/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-25/grim-stock-signals-piling-up-as-wall-street-mulls-recession-odds |url-status=live }}</ref>

However, the following are considered possible predictors:<ref>{{cite journal |title=Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators |journal=Review of Economics and Statistics |volume=80 |pages=45–61 |author=A Estrella, FS Mishkin |year=1995 |publisher=MIT Press |doi=10.1162/003465398557320 |s2cid=11641969 |url=http://www.nber.org/papers/w5379.pdf |access-date=25 August 2019 |archive-date=6 April 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200406193951/https://www.nber.org/papers/w5379.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite web| url = https://www.conference-board.org/publications/pdf/index.cfm?brandingURL=Leading-Indicators-Recession |last=Ozyildirim | first=Ataman| title = Leading Economic Indicators and the Oncoming Recession |access-date=7 December 2022| archive-date=4 August 2024 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240804165049/https://www.conference-board.org/publications/pdf/index.cfm?brandingURL=Leading-Indicators-Recession|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="auto7">{{cite web| url = https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators | title = The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. |access-date=4 August 2024| archive-date=4 August 2024 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240804182701/https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators|url-status=live}}</ref>

Manufacturing:
[[File:Real Manufacturing and Trade Industry Sales.webp|thumb|Real [[Manufacturing]] and Trade Industry Sales, percent change year over year.]]
* Average weekly hours in manufacturing.<ref name="auto10">{{Cite web|url=https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/425 | last=Kelley | first=David |title=Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?|date=2019|website=Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago}}</ref> Firms tend to react to worsening business cycle circumstances by lowering hours worked before laying off workers, according to Glosser and Golden (1997).<ref>{{cite journal |title=Average work hours as a leading economic variable in US manufacturing industries |journal=International Journal of Forecasting |volume=13 |issue=2 |pages=175–195 |author=Stuart M. Glosser, Lonnie Golden |year=1997 |publisher=Elsevier |doi=10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00725-X  |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S016920709600725X |access-date=5 August 2024|url-access=subscription }}</ref> This popular indicator leads industrial production by two to four months.<ref name="auto5">{{Cite web|url=https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/2303/notes_indicators.pdf|first=David|last=Backus|title=Business-Cycle Indicators|website=New York University's Stern School of Business|date=2024}}</ref>
* Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.<ref name="auto10"/>
* Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders.<ref name="auto10"/>
* Manufacturing sales.
* A decline in manufacturing activities and new orders for consumer and capital goods can signal reduced business investment and economic slowdown.
* Measuring manufacturing output against business demand (new orders plus backlog minus inventory) as a composite index for U.S. economic activity, using data from [[Institute for Supply Management|ISM]] (Manufacturing Services, Chicago) and [[Federal Reserve|Fed]] (Empire Manufacturing, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas) indices, has been a reliable recession indicator during the last eight recessions.<ref name="auto2">{{Cite news|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-indicators-labor-market-rate-cuts-hussman-2024-8|title=Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns of 70% Potential Downside for S&P 500|first=William|last=Edwards|newspaper=Business Insider|date=31 August 2024|access-date=1 September 2024|archive-date=1 September 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240901145736/https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-indicators-labor-market-rate-cuts-hussman-2024-8|url-status=live}}</ref>

Industrial Production:
* Factory output, including factories, mines, and utilities.
* Low industrial output and sales: During economic downturns, companies reduce production to minimize risk. This leads to lower industrial output and sales, which can signal an impending recession, because it causes a [[ripple effect]]. As fewer goods are produced, lesser resources like labor, equipment and raw materials are required. As industrial output falls this sooner or later leads to a cutback in hiring as well as a surge in layoffs.

Chemical Activity:
* Basic industrial chemicals like chlorine, alkalies, pigments and plastic resins are positioned early in the supply chain. This early position allows to identify emerging turning points in the economy.
* Chemical activity also includes data on hours worked in chemicals, chemical company stock data, publicly sourced chemical price information, end-use chemical industry sales-to-inventories.
* Indicators of chemical activity provide a longer lead time compared to other economic indicators. Tracking chemical activity as an index can lead by two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks and four months at cycle troughs, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC).

Transportation:
[[File:Dow Jones Transportation Average.webp|thumb|[[Dow Jones Transportation Average]] 2015-2025]]
* Declining [[trucking]] and [[shipping]] volumes of goods.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/trucking-truckers-bloodbath-signals-recession-inverted-yield-2019-8|title=The "bloodbath" in America's trucking industry has officially spilled over to the rest of the economy|first=Rachel|last=Premack|website=Business Insider|access-date=18 September 2019|archive-date=8 February 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200208144012/https://www.businessinsider.com/trucking-truckers-bloodbath-signals-recession-inverted-yield-2019-8|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web| url = https://www.cassinfo.com/hubfs/Freight%20Payment%20/Transportation%20Indexes/Cass%20Freight%20Index/Reports/Cass%20Freight%20Index%20Report%20-%20August%202019.pdf?hsCtaTracking=5fde9be4-1dd0-462f-8c5f-b100aca52fc1%7C0990f099-885d-442a-972a-aeb259c5a188| title = Cass Freight Index Report|date= August 2019| access-date = 18 September 2019| archive-date = 13 December 2019| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20191213020611/https://www.cassinfo.com/hubfs/Freight%20Payment%20/Transportation%20Indexes/Cass%20Freight%20Index/Reports/Cass%20Freight%20Index%20Report%20-%20August%202019.pdf?hsCtaTracking=5fde9be4-1dd0-462f-8c5f-b100aca52fc1%7C0990f099-885d-442a-972a-aeb259c5a188| url-status = live}}</ref>
* The [[Baltic Dry Index|Baltic Dry Index (BDI)]], a shipping freight-cost index which reflects the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers, is generally seen as a leading indicator of economic activity, because changes in the index reflect global supply and demand for commodities and raw materials used in manufacturing. A falling BDI can signal a slowdown in economic activity.
* The [[Dow Jones Transportation Average|Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA)]] contains railroads, shipping companies, air freight carriers, marine transportation, delivery services, and logistics companies. The performance of transportation stocks can predict trends in the broader market, according to the [[Dow theory|Dow Theory]], which says that a divergence between the DJTA and the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average|Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)]] can signal potential early economic weakness if transportation stocks are underperforming while industrial stocks are rising.
* Both indices (BDI and DJTA) serve as barometers for economic health and are considered to be leading economic indicators but from different perspectives. The BDI focuses on global trade and commodity demand, while the DJTA reflects domestic transportation activity in the U.S.
* There are various trucking indices, most notably the Cass Freight Index, which measures monthly freight activity across all domestic freight modes in North America. Other trucking indices are the FreightWaves National Truckload Index (NTI), the FTR Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), the ACT For-Hire Trucking Index, the American Trucking Associations' Truck Tonnage Index, the DAT Trendlines index and the [[Bureau of Labor Statistics|U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics]] Producer Price Index (PPI) by Industry: General Freight Trucking Index. These indices are essential for understanding the dynamics of the trucking industry and predicting future market conditions.
* According to research by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a leading indicator of economic cycles. It tracks the movement of freight and passengers to provide insights into the broader economic conditions. Both TSI index components lead the business cycles since 1979 by an average of approximately four months.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/research-confirms-transportation-index-leading-indicator|title=Research Confirms Transportation Index as Leading Indicator|website=U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics|date=December 15, 2017}}</ref>
* Light truck sales are seen as a recession predictor.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.marketplace.org/2024/09/12/inverted-yield-curve-recession-predictor-indicator/|title=Why the inverted yield curve is typically a recession predictor|first=Stacey Vanek|last=Smith|newspaper=Marketplace|date=12 September 2024|access-date=13 September 2024|archive-date=13 September 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240913122844/https://www.marketplace.org/2024/09/12/inverted-yield-curve-recession-predictor-indicator/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2019/08/15/how-bad-is-the-us-economy-in-2019/|title=How Bad Is The U.S. Economy In 2019?|first=Bill|last=Conerly|newspaper=Forbes|date=15 August 2019|access-date=13 September 2024|archive-date=13 September 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240913123647/https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2019/08/15/how-bad-is-the-us-economy-in-2019/|url-status=live}}</ref>

Corporate Profits:
* Business sector profits. Declining corporate earnings over successive quarters can signal economic trouble and the risk of a potential bear market.<ref name="auto6">{{Cite web|url=https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/resource-library/market-cycles/bear-markets/indicators | last=Fisher | first=Ken |title=Bear Market Indicators|date=2024|website=Fisher Investments}}</ref>

Employment:
* Decreasing job growth.
* Decreasing payroll employment.
* Growing unemployment rate as measured by the initial claims for unemployment insurance (indicated by a constant enduring year-over-year increase in the three-week average of unemployment insurance initial claims<ref name="auto9">{{cite web| url = https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2508303/recessionary-indicators | title = Recessionary Indicators |website=GuruFocus |access-date=22 August 2024| archive-date=24 August 2024 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240824152220/https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2508303/recessionary-indicators|url-status=live}}</ref>), which are reported by the [[Bureau of Labor Statistics|U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics]]:<ref name="auto10"/> A enlarging unemployment rate with rising initial claims for unemployment insurance indicate weakening labor market conditions, which can be a precursor to a recession. This indicator leads industrial production by two to three months.<ref name="auto5"/> Also see [[Sahm rule]] indicator below in the overview of recession indicators, which tracks the momentum in the U3 unemployment rate.
* Growing labor market weakness as indicated by a negative three-month average of U.S. nonfarm payrolls.<ref name="auto9"/>
* Swelling unemployment rate, specifically a unemployment rate rising above its 36-month moving average<ref name="auto1">{{Cite news|url=https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2024/09/11/jeffrey-gundlach-6-signs-recession-is-near-or-here/|title=Jeffrey Gundlach: 6 Signs Recession Is Near, or Here|first=Dinah|last=Wisenberg Brin|newspaper=ThinkAdvisor|date=11 September 2024|access-date=17 September 2024|archive-date=17 September 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240917160716/https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2024/09/11/jeffrey-gundlach-6-signs-recession-is-near-or-here/|url-status=live}}</ref> is a cause for concern, according to [[Jeffrey Gundlach]].
* A narrowing labor differential between those who think jobs are plentiful versus those who think they are hard to get, as measured by the [[The Conference Board|Conference Board]]. On average, the peak in the labor differential comes nine months ahead of a recession, according to BCA Research strategist Peter Berezin.<ref name="auto4">{{Cite news|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-indicators-recession-warning-signs-bca-research-berezin-2024-9|title=2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says|first=Kelly|last=Cloonan|newspaper=Business Insider|date=25 September 2024|access-date=28 September 2024|archive-date=28 September 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240928153223/https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-indicators-recession-warning-signs-bca-research-berezin-2024-9|url-status=live}}</ref>
* Jobs market contraction: The 'Perkins rule', created by GlobalData TS Lombard managing director Dario Perkins, triggers when payrolls are declining. Commonly when the Sahm rule produces a recession warning signal the Perkins rule has already triggered.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-indicator-perkins-rule-negative-payroll-report-sahm-unemployment-rate-2024-8|title=The Sahm Rule has flashed, but there's a simpler recession indicator investors should be watching|first=Matthew|last=Fox|newspaper=Business Insider|date=26 August 2024|access-date=27 August 2024|archive-date=27 August 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240827144004/https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-indicator-perkins-rule-negative-payroll-report-sahm-unemployment-rate-2024-8|url-status=live}}</ref> Another jobs market indicator measuring a rise in unemployment is the 'Kantro rule'. This recession indicator isn't influenced by participation rates and has an equally impressive track record as the Sahm rule going back to the early 1970s. Kantro's 10% recession rule, created by Michael Kantrowitz, CIO of Piper Sandler, measures the year-over-year growth in unemployed persons in the U.S. workforce. When the three-month moving average of this indicator grows beyond the 10% threshold at least in the past 11 occurrences the economy has already been in recession.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-flat-after-1000-point-rally-in-four-days/card/a-reliable-labor-market-recession-indicator-has-triggered-but-this-time-it-could-be-bullish-for-stocks-sXgJRUlCo2TNywR6XgDc|title=A reliable labor-market recession indicator has triggered — but this time it could be bullish for stocks|first=Joseph|last=Adinolfi|newspaper=Marketwatch|date=7 May 2024|access-date=29 August 2024|archive-date=29 August 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240829170606/https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-flat-after-1000-point-rally-in-four-days/card/a-reliable-labor-market-recession-indicator-has-triggered-but-this-time-it-could-be-bullish-for-stocks-sXgJRUlCo2TNywR6XgDc|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-indicators-jobs-report-unemploymnet-rate-sp500-2024-8|title=2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to cut rates|first=William|last=Edwards|newspaper=Business Insider|date=3 August 2024|access-date=29 August 2024|archive-date=29 August 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240829164157/https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-indicators-jobs-report-unemploymnet-rate-sp500-2024-8|url-status=live}}</ref>
* Growing shifts in labor market internals to part-time work signals increasing weakness in the economy as normally part-time jobs rise and full-time jobs decrease as a share of employment before a recession takes hold. As an indicator this can be measured simply using the ratio of part-time to full-time employment (with the year-over-year change crossing into negative territory as recession risk warning).<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6360053882112|title=Sahm Rule is picking up on something that's 'very worrisome' - New Century Advisors chief economist Claudia Sahm weighs in on the Fed's next rate move|first=Charles|last=Payne|newspaper=FOX Business|date=7 August 2024}}</ref> Another way to use this approach is to look at the number of people who are working part time but would rather be working full time, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.<ref name="auto4"/> This approach is also called U-7 and was invented by [[David Blanchflower]], a Dartmouth labor economist who served on the Bank of England's monetary policy committee. David Kotok, the chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, says the way to use the U-7 number is to compare it with the main unemployment rate, which the Labor Department calls U-3. When the U-3 rises faster than the U-7, that is a recession warning.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-unemployment-measure-youve-never-heard-is-flashing-a-recession-warning-1ccfd4ad|title=The unemployment measure you've never heard is flashing a recession warning|first=Steve|last=Goldstein|newspaper=Marketwatch|date=18 September 2024|access-date=28 September 2024|archive-date=28 September 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240928160841/https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-unemployment-measure-youve-never-heard-is-flashing-a-recession-warning-1ccfd4ad|url-status=live}}</ref>
* Six other employment-based recession indicators are:<ref name="auto2"/> 1) new claims for unemployment (8-week smoothing of 26-week change) larger than 60.000. 2) Continuing claims for unemployment (percent change year-over-year) larger 21%. 3) Employed part-time due to economic reasons (percent change year-over-year) larger 16%. 4) Unemployed more than 15 weeks (percent change from 12-month low) larger 30%. 5) Temporary help services (percent change year-over-year) smaller -2%. 6) Aggregate hours worked, production and non-supervisory employees (6-month percent change) smaller 0%.

Personal Income:
* Decline in [[wage]]s.
* Decline in [[personal income]] less transfer payments. Real median household income is reported by the [[Bureau of Economic Analysis|U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)]].
* Increased [[income inequality]].<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://phys.org/news/2016-08-income-wealth-inequality-recessions-worse.html |year=2016 |title=Income and wealth inequality make recessions worse, research reveals |website=phys.org |access-date=25 August 2019 |archive-date=13 December 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191213085932/https://phys.org/news/2016-08-income-wealth-inequality-recessions-worse.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Neves |first1=Pedro Cunha |last2=Afonso |first2=Óscar |last3=Silva |first3=Sandra Tavares |title=A Meta-Analytic Reassessment of the Effects of Inequality on Growth |journal=World Development |date=February 2016 |volume=78 |pages=386–400 |doi=10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.038 }}</ref>

Household Savings and Consumer Debt:
* Tracking consumer savings rates can help indicate how people are feeling about the economy in general. A personal savings rate that is too low (and then rises once people become worried about their job security, start to spend less and begin to build their savings again) typically precedes a recession. Prior to the [[2008 financial crisis]], households were saving less than 3% of their disposable personal income based on data from the [[Commerce Department]].<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-savings-household-spending-economy-2008-financial-crisis-2024-9|title=A key US consumer indicator has dipped to 'crisis levels,' SocGen says|first=Jennifer|last=Sor|newspaper=Business Insider|date=25 September 2024|access-date=5 October 2024|archive-date=5 October 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241005122850/https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-savings-household-spending-economy-2008-financial-crisis-2024-9|url-status=live}}</ref>
* Rising consumer debt at the onset of a recession: When the budget shrinks some consumers may turn to debt to maintain their lifestyle and to continue spending. As available cash tightens an increase in overall credit card debt, auto loans and other types of consumer debt can indicate that consumers can't afford daily purchases anymore. This debt overhang suggests lower future consumer spending and a worsening economy.<ref name="auto8">{{Cite news|url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-buying-habits-experts-believe-110110863.html|title=5 Buying Habits That Experts Believe Are Key Signs of a Looming Recession|first=Jacob|last=Wade|newspaper=yahoo! finance|date=16 July 2024|access-date=6 October 2024|archive-date=6 October 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241006145942/https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-buying-habits-experts-believe-110110863.html|url-status=live}}</ref>

Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and Consumer Expenditures:
* Decline in wholesale/retail sales, which are reported by the [[United States Census Bureau|U.S. Census Bureau]].
* [[Consumer confidence index|Consumer expectations]], confidence surveys like the index of consumer expectations ([[University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index]]) and the [[Consumer confidence index|Conference Board  Consumer Confidence Index]]:<ref name="auto10"/> Declines in consumer sentiment and confidence can signal a recession. These measures reflect consumers' outlook on the economy and their willingness to spend, which drives economic activity. A drop in consumer confidence often precedes reduced consumer spending.
* Weakening [[Personal consumption expenditures price index|personal consumption expenditure growth]].<ref name="auto9"/> Declines in [[consumer spending]] can signal a recession. As consumers cut back on spending, businesses may respond by reducing production and laying off workers, creating a cycle that can lead to a recession.
* Changes in household consumer spending like a switch to more generic brands (trading down): When households start buying more private label or lower-cost goods (generic brands that are a lower-cost option for a similar product instead of more expensive name brand goods) could indicate that consumers have less discretionary income and that a recession is coming.<ref name="auto8"/>
* Consumers choosing to eat out less at restaurants and make food at home more: It can be a leading sign of a looming recession when consumers cut back on non-essential items like restaurants, entertainment and experiences like travel.<ref name="auto8"/>
* Declining luxury purchases: When the jobs market starts getting stressed and cash is less plentiful consumers postpone expensive, non-urgent purchases and especially luxury purchases (fashion, beauty and jewelry) are one of the first spending categories to get hit when a recession is coming.<ref name="auto8"/>
* Tumbling sales in durable consumer goods, like e.g. new car sales (light vehicles unit retail sales).<ref name="auto9"/> and decreasing [[recreational vehicle]] shipments.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-countys-rv-industry-points-to-recession-around-the-bend-11566207001|title=An Economic Warning Sign: RV Shipments Are Slipping|first=Shayndi|last=Raice|newspaper=The Wall Street Journal|date=19 August 2019|access-date=18 September 2019|archive-date=8 June 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200608110107/https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-countys-rv-industry-points-to-recession-around-the-bend-11566207001|url-status=live}}</ref>

Housing and non-residential construction:
* Housing starts and construction, specifically [[Planning permission|building permits]] for new private housing units.<ref name="auto10"/><ref>{{cite web| url = https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/18/cb-leading-economic-index-continued-to-trend-down-in-june |last=Nash | first=Jennifer| title = Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Continued to Trend Down in June |access-date=18 July 2024| archive-date=4 August 2024 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240804170104/https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/18/cb-leading-economic-index-continued-to-trend-down-in-june|url-status=live}}</ref> Residential investment contains information that is particularly useful for predicting recessions when compared by what is captured by standard leading indicators such as the term spread. And it is especially useful for the prediction of recessions for countries with high home-ownership rates. Research results strongly suggest that recession predictability of leading indicators is improved, when residential investment is included.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Are Aastveit |first1=Knut |last2=Anundsen |first2=André K. |last3=Herstad |first3=Eyo I.  |title=Residential investment and recession predictability |journal=International Journal of Forecasting |date=October–December 2019 |volume=35 |issue=4 |pages=1790–1799 |doi=10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.008 |hdl=11250/2474303 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>
* Non-residential construction spending (like e.g. offices and industrial plants) as measured by the [[Architecture Billings Index|Architecture Billings Index (ABI)]] 9-12 months ahead. The ABI is a survey send each month by the AIA to several hundreds of architecture firms. The index can be used to predict a recession. The index is centered around a value of 50. Below 50 means there is a high likelihood that construction spending will decrease and that therefore overall economic health is going to worsen. Researchers at the AIA came to the conclusion that their Architecture Billings Index is an accurate indicator of actual construction spending with on average 11 months' worth of lead time and therefore reliably leads economic downturns whenever the index severely drops below 50. For example the ABI plunged below 50 between July of 2000 and January of 2001 (and then in June of 2001 the percentage change in construction spending as compared to the prior year sank into negative growth territory) ahead of the wider crash in the US equity markets that followed.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4227045-forecasting-next-recession-using-architectural-billings-index|title=Forecasting The Next Recession Using The Architectural Billings Index|first=Kevin|last=Mackie|website=Seeking Alpha|date=7 December 2018|access-date=21 September 2024|archive-date=29 November 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221129013001/https://seekingalpha.com/article/4227045-forecasting-next-recession-using-architectural-billings-index|url-status=live}}</ref>

Credit Markets:
* Rising corporate debt can foreshadow a bear market, notably when businesses go ahead with taking on more debt, despite having diminishing sales and dwindling earnings.<ref name="auto6"/>
* Credit conditions like credit spreads. The spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries is important. If the spread between corporate and government debt increases, this could signal that private sector lending is becoming strained.<ref name="auto3">{{Cite web|url=https://www.marketbeat.com/learn/predicting-a-bear-market-7-signs-and-why-its-tough-to-do/ | last=Schmidt | first=Dan |title=Predicting a Bear Market: 7 Signs and Why it's Tough to Do|date=April 17, 2024|website=MarketBeat}}</ref>
* The long-term spread: The spread between a shorter-term rate (like the three-month Treasury yield) and 10-year U.S. bond yields. The long-term Treasury yield spread has been particularly effective at predicting recessions many months in advance, achieving an AUC (Area Under the [[Receiver operating characteristic|Receiver Operating Characteristic]] curve) value of 0.89 at 14 months ahead. And it is the best predictor at a horizon of 16 to 20 months ahead, when compared to other leading indicators.<ref name="auto10"/>
* The near-term forward spread: This is the difference between the market expectation of the interest rate on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters in the future and the current three-month Treasury bill yield.<ref>{{cite journal | last1=Engstrom | first1=Eric C. | last2=Sharpe | first2=Steven A. | title=The near-term forward yield spread as a leading indicator: A less distorted mirror | journal=Finance and Economics Discussion Series | publisher=Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | volume=2018-055 | date=February 2019 | issue=55r1 | doi=10.17016/FEDS.2018.055r1 |  url=https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-near-term-forward-yield-spread-as-a-leading-indicator-a-less-distorted-mirror.htm }}</ref><ref name="auto10"/>
* An [[inverted yield curve]] can indicate that a recession may be on the horizon as it has historically often preceded economic downturns with lead times ranging from several months to over a year. Especially the disinversion, a move back into positive territory for the spread between the shorter (e.g. 3-month or 2-year) yield and the longer (e.g. 10-year) Treasury yield, has in the past, been a reliable recession signal as the curve usually disinverts (or un-inverts) nearly before the recession truly appears. Based on recent history, the last four recessions, as of Q2-2024, didn't start until the inverted curve returned to a positive reading (steepens). Further analysis shows that "the average time to recession (...) [is] only 66 days from when the [3-month/10-year] curve disinverts."<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yield-curve-disinversion-is-recession-signal-watch-2024-06-04/|title=Yield curve disinversion is the recession signal to watch|first=Jamie|last=McGeever|newspaper=Reuters|date=5 June 2024|access-date=30 August 2024|archive-date=30 August 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240830145138/https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yield-curve-disinversion-is-recession-signal-watch-2024-06-04/|url-status=live}}</ref>
* The S&P 500 and BBB bond spread.<ref>[https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/fiscal/Fiscal_2020_meetings/Jesse_Edgerton_US_Outlook_Presentation_34375.pdf] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201206013511/https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/fiscal/Fiscal_2020_meetings/Jesse_Edgerton_US_Outlook_Presentation_34375.pdf|date=6 December 2020}} JPMorgan | The US Economic Outlook | Feb. 2020 | Page 22]</ref>
* The [[Federal budget (economics)|federal budget]] deficit typically worsens strongly ahead of a recession.<ref name="auto1"/>

Business Expectations:
* Business confidence surveys and expectations for business condition.
* New businesses form at a slower rate when entrepreneurs are less likely to take the risk of starting a new venture while more established struggling businesses close down when a recession is looming.<ref name="auto8"/>

Margin of stock market traders:
* The value of debit balances in broker-dealers' securities [[Margin (finance)|margin accounts]].<ref name="auto10"/>

Asset Prices:
* [[Oil]] is a critical commodity input for many industries.
* [[commodity|Commodity prices]], as measured e.g. by the Standard & Poor's (S&P) Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI),<ref name="auto10"/> may increase before recessions, which usually hinders [[consumer spending]] by making necessities like transportation and housing costlier. This will tend to constrict spending for non-essential goods and services. Once the recession occurs, commodity prices will usually reset to a lower level.
* A [[sector rotation]] in the stock market, specifically strong shifts in investment from leading more volatile sectors like consumer cyclicals and consumer discretionary (as well as e.g. biotechnology) to more stable sectors such as utilities and consumer staples (as well as e.g. telecommunications) can signal increasing market uncertainty and that a recession is on the horizon.<ref name="auto3"/>
* Lowering of asset prices, such as homes and financial assets, or high personal and corporate debt levels.
* Significant declines in stock prices can reflect investor pessimism about future economic conditions and can be a leading indicator of a recession.
* [[VIX|Volatility Index (VIX)]] measuring of stock market volatility. A high VIX indicates increased market stress, which can precede economic downturns.

Gross Domestic Product:
* [[Gross domestic product|GDP]] contraction: The GDP measures a country's economic output, all goods and services a country produces. GDP provides a good insight into what has already been taking place in the economy. A contraction in GDP, especially if it occurs for two consecutive quarters,<ref name="auto"/> is a strong indicator of a recession as it reflects reduced economic activity, lower consumer demand, and decreased employment.
* [[List of countries by real GDP per capita growth|GDP per capita contraction]]<ref name="r327">{{cite journal | last1=Dwyer | first1=Gerald P. | last2=Devereux | first2=John | last3=Baier | first3=Scott | last4=Tamura | first4=Robert | title=Recessions, growth and banking crises | journal=Journal of International Money and Finance | volume=38 | date=2013 | doi=10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.05.009 | pages=18–40}}</ref>
* The Atlanta Fed offers a GDPnow model, which estimates changes in real GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP. GDPnow can provide a timelier gauge of the current state of the economy.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow|title=GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta|date=10 August 2024|website=The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta}}</ref>

Unorthodox Recession Indicators:
* Sausage sales: Heightened appetites for sausages might be a harbinger of a looming economic downturn, because sausages are a cheaper protein substitute for other higher-priced meat products,<ref>{{cite web| url = https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2024/2408#tab-comments | title = Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey - Comments from survey respondents |website=The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas | date=26 August 2024 | access-date=29 August 2024 | archive-date=29 August 2024 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240829115924/https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2024/2408#tab-comments|url-status=live}}</ref> a reaction by shoppers when times are tough experts call the "trade down."<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/26/increased-sausage-demand-could-be-worrying-signal-on-the-economy.html|title=Increased sausage demand could be worrying signal on the economy|first=Alex|last=Harring|newspaper=CNBC|date=26 August 2024|access-date=29 August 2024|archive-date=29 August 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240829144239/https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/26/increased-sausage-demand-could-be-worrying-signal-on-the-economy.html|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.ft.com/content/325487cd-d771-451e-9e8e-93a6176d93d9|title=The latest US recession indicator just dropped — and it's a banger (Prepare for the wurst)|first=Louis|last=Ashworth|newspaper=Financial Times|date=27 August 2024|access-date=29 August 2024|archive-date=29 August 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240829150055/https://www.ft.com/content/325487cd-d771-451e-9e8e-93a6176d93d9}}</ref>
* Plunging underwear sales: During the [[2008 financial crisis]], men's underwear sales dropped significantly, mirroring reduced consumer spending and causing former Federal Reserve head [[Alan Greenspan]] to see men's underwear as a key economic predictor.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/26/economy/recession-underwear-alan-greenspan/index.html|title=Is a recession coming? Alan Greenspan says the answer is in men's underwear|first=Nicole|last=Goodkind|newspaper=CNN|date=26 March 2022|access-date=29 August 2024|archive-date=29 August 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240829122918/https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/26/economy/recession-underwear-alan-greenspan/index.html|url-status=live}}</ref>

Overview of recession indicators:
* [[Index of Leading Indicators|Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (LEI)]] (includes some of the above indicators).<ref>[http://seekingalpha.com/article/60871-leading-economic-indicators-suggest-u-s-in-recession Leading Economic Indicators Suggest U.S. In Recession] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090706061913/http://seekingalpha.com/article/60871-leading-economic-indicators-suggest-u-s-in-recession |date=6 July 2009 }} 21 January 2008</ref> The LEI's lead time is six to seven months.<ref name="auto7"/> The Conference Board's leading index is highly accurate in the near term, one to three months ahead (accomplishing an AUC value of 0.97).<ref name="auto10"/>
* [https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/mb201105%20focus06.en.pdf Euro Area Leading Indicator (ALI)], research indicates that the ALI can lead turning points in the business cycle by approximately five to six months.
* The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas posts the [https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/swe/1988/swe8801c.pdf Texas Index of Leading Economic Indicators]. This index contains the real oil price, well permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, Texas stock index, help-wanted index and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.dallasfed.org/research/econdata/tli|title=Texas Leading Index|date=22 August 2024|website=Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas|access-date=22 August 2024}}</ref>
* The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago posts updates of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI).<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422|title=A 'Big Data' View of the U.S. Economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago|website=chicagofed.org|access-date=6 May 2020|archive-date=28 May 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200528213016/https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422|url-status=live}}</ref>
* The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) (WEI).<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WEI|title=Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock)|date=5 January 2008|website=FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis|access-date=19 July 2021|archive-date=19 July 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210719173850/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WEI|url-status=live}}</ref>
* The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N).<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N|title=Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities|date=1 February 1967|website=FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis|access-date=6 May 2020|archive-date=2 May 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200502191643/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N|url-status=live}}</ref>
* The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and its nonfinancial leverage subindex can be used as leading indicators to predict a recession.<ref name="auto10"/><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCI|title=Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)|date=7 August 2024|website=FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis}}</ref>
* The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago developed the ROC Threshold Index (ROC means receiver operating characteristic). It combines multiple leading indicators to predict recessions. It has shown better predictive ability than individual indicators up to 11 months ahead. And it also significantly outperformed other measures at leading recession forecasts with a range of six to nine months in advance.<ref name="auto10"/>
* The [[inverted yield curve]],<ref>{{Cite periodical |title=2020 Recession Signals, After US-Iran Airstrike. Vanguard ETF Best Performing Funds for 2020|first=Jeffrey|last=Ulatan|date=3 July 2020|magazine=Harvard Dataverse |doi=10.7910/DVN/AWWQPN |doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>[https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB116821099838669658?mod=mostpop Grading Bonds on Inverted Curve] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190507212152/https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB116821099838669658?mod=mostpop |date=7 May 2019 }} By Michael Hudson</ref> the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the [[Federal funds rate|Fed's overnight funds rate]].<ref>Wright, Jonathan H., [http://ssrn.com/abstract=899538 The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200728104135/https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=899538 |date=28 July 2020 }} (March 2006). FEDs Working Paper No. 2006-7.</ref> Another model developed by [[Federal Reserve Bank of New York]] economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread.<ref>{{cite web |title=The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator |website=newyorkfed.org |publisher=Federal Reserve Bank of New York|url=https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/interactive |year=2020 |access-date=20 March 2020 |archive-date=14 May 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170514111437/https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/interactive |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="Park Simar Zelenyuk 2019 pp. 379–392">{{cite journal | last1=Park | first1=Byeong U. | last2=Simar | first2=Léopold | last3=Zelenyuk | first3=Valentin | title=Forecasting of recessions via dynamic probit for time series: replication and extension of Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008) | journal=Empirical Economics | publisher=Springer Science and Business Media LLC | volume=58 | issue=1 | date=2019-05-15 | issn=0377-7332 | doi=10.1007/s00181-019-01708-2 | pages=379–392| s2cid=253717746 | url=https://dial.uclouvain.be/pr/boreal/fr/object/boreal%3A196164/datastream/PDF_01/view }}</ref><ref>[https://honors.libraries.psu.edu/files/final_submissions/1003] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200319044533/https://honors.libraries.psu.edu/files/final_submissions/1003|date=19 March 2020}} Using the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve to predict S&P 500 returns and U.S. recessions | Theodore Gregory Hanks | Pennsylvania State University, Schreyer Honors College Department of Finance | Spring 2012</ref> The Estrella and Mishkin model is a well-known approach for predicting U.S. recessions. This model primarily uses the yield curve, specifically the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates, as a predictor. This method has been widely adopted and is considered robust. The model, developed by economists Arturo Estrella and [[Frederic Mishkin]], uses the difference between the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills, as detailed in their research papers and working papers for the [[National Bureau of Economic Research]]. Their models estimate the 12-month-ahead recession probabilities using the term spread. This yield curve spread has been found to be a valuable forecasting tool, outperforming other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.<ref>{{cite journal| last1=Estrella | first1=Arturo | last2=Mishkin | first2=Frederic S. |date=June 1996|title=The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions| journal=The Federal Reserve Bank of New York|url=https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci2-7.html|language=en}}</ref> An inversion of this yield curve has been successful in predicting past recessions, including those in 1973-75, and 1981-82. The Estrella and Mishkin model later also successfully predicted the recessions in the early 2000s, and the [[Great Recession]] of 2007-2009. Moreover, a negative spread has historically preceded each U.S. recession since the 1950s, according to The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
* The three-month change in the [[Unemployment rate in the U.S.|unemployment rate]] and initial jobless claims.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/01/28/labor-model-predicts-lower-recession-odds/ |title=Labor Model Predicts Lower Recession Odds |work=The Wall Street Journal |date=28 January 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 |archive-date=19 August 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200819160832/https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/01/28/labor-model-predicts-lower-recession-odds/ |url-status=live }}</ref> U.S. unemployment index is defined as the difference between the 3-month average of the [[Unemployment rate in the U.S.|unemployment rate]] and the 12-month minimum of the unemployment rate.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/files/Sahm_web_20190506.pdf|title=Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals|last=Sahm|first=Claudia|date=6 May 2019|website=[[Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System]]|access-date=25 August 2019|archive-date=31 March 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200331235146/https://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/files/Sahm_web_20190506.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref> Unemployment momentum and acceleration with Hidden Markov model.<ref>{{cite SSRN|last=Lihn|first=Stephen H. T.|date=10 August 2019|title=Real-time Recession Probability with Hidden Markov Model and Unemployment Momentum|language=en |ssrn=3435667}}</ref>
* The [[Sahm rule|Sahm Recession Indicator]], named after economist [[Claudia Sahm]], was published in October 2019 by the [[Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis|St. Louis Federal Reserve]] bank's [[Federal Reserve Economic Data]] (FRED). It is defined as: {{blockquote|Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month [[moving average]] of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.<ref>{{cite news |title=Sahm Rule Recession Indicator |url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT |publisher=[[Federal Reserve Economic Data]]|quote=Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months}}</ref>}}