Editing Historiometry

[[Image:Francis Galton 1850s.jpg|thumb|right|[[Francis Galton]], one of the pioneers of historiometry]]
'''Historiometry''' is the historical study of human progress or individual personal characteristics, using statistics to analyze [[reference]]s to [[genius]]es,<ref name=Simonton2008/> their statements, behavior and discoveries in relatively neutral texts. Historiometry combines techniques from [[cliometrics]], which studies economic history and from [[psychometrics]], the [[psychology|psychological]] study of an individual's [[personality psychology|personality]] and abilities.

==Origins==
Historiometry started in the early 19th century with studies on the relationship between age and achievement by [[Demographics of Belgium|Belgian]] [[mathematician]] [[Adolphe Quetelet]] in the careers of prominent French and English playwrights <ref>{{cite news
 |first = Emily
 |last = Eakin
 |title = A Cultural Scorecard Says West Is Ahead
 |url = https://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/25/books/a-cultural-scorecard-says-west-is-ahead.html
 |work = New York Times
 |page = 9
 |date = 2003-10-25
 |access-date = 2006-09-13
}}</ref><ref>{{cite web
 |first = David
 |last = Neiwert
 |title = Evading reality
 |url = http://dneiwert.blogspot.com/2003/10/evading-reality.html
 |format = blog
 |date = 2003-10-26
 |access-date = 2006-09-13
}}</ref>  but it was [[Sir Francis Galton]], an English [[polymath]] who popularized historiometry in his 1869 work, ''[[Hereditary Genius]]''.<ref>{{cite book
 | last = Galton
 | first = Francis
 | title = Hereditary Genius
 | url = http://galton.org/books/hereditary-genius/
 | access-date = 2006-09-13
 | publisher = MacMillan & Co
 | location = London
 | year = 1869
 | isbn = 978-0-312-36989-7
 }}</ref> It was further developed by Frederick Adams Woods (who coined the term ''historiometry''<ref>{{cite journal
 | last = Simonton
 | first = Dean Keith
 | year = 2003
 | title = Qualitative and quantitative analyses of historical data
 | journal = Annu. Rev. Psychol.
 | volume = 54
 | pmid = 12171999
 | pages = 617–640
 | doi = 10.1146/annurev.psych.54.101601.145034
 | s2cid = 33595250
 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal
 | last = Woods
 | first = Frederick Adams
 | year = 1909
 | title = A new name for a new science
 | journal = Science
 | volume = 30
 | pages = 697–736
 | doi = 10.1126/science.30.777.703
 | pmid = 17792096
 | issue = 777
 | bibcode = 1909Sci....30..703A
 | url = https://zenodo.org/record/1448032
 }}</ref>) in the beginning of the 20th century.<ref>{{cite journal
 | last = Woods
 | first = Frederick Adams
 | year = 1911
 | title = Historiometry as an exact science
 | journal = Science
 | volume = 33
 | pages = 568–574
 | doi = 10.1126/science.33.850.568
 | pmid = 17790108
 | issue = 850
 | bibcode = 1911Sci....33..568A
 | url = https://zenodo.org/record/1448056
 }}</ref> Also [[psychologist]] [[Paul E. Meehl]] published several papers on historiometry later in his career, mainly in the area of medical history, although it is usually referred to as ''cliometric metatheory'' by him.<ref>{{cite journal
 | author = Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E.
 | year = 2002
 | title = Using meta-scientific studies to clarify or resolve questions in the philosophy and history of science
 | journal = Philosophy of Science
 | volume = 69
 | pages = S185–S196
 | doi = 10.1086/341845
 | citeseerx = 10.1.1.560.5762
 | s2cid = 62602513
 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal
 | author = Meehl, P. E.
 | year = 1992
 | title = Cliometric metatheory: The actuarial approach to empirical, history-based philosophy of science
 | journal = Psychological Reports
 | volume = 71
 | pages = 339–467
 | url = https://meehl.umn.edu/sites/meehl.umn.edu/files/files/154cliometricmetatheory.pdf
 }}</ref>

Historiometry was the first field studying genius by using scientific methods.<ref name=Simonton2008>{{cite journal | year = 2008 | title = A Reflective Conversation with Dean Keith Simonton | journal = North American Journal of Psychology | volume = 10 | issue = 3| pages = 595–602 }}</ref>

==Current research==
Prominent current historiometry researchers include [[Dean Keith Simonton]] and [[Charles Murray (political scientist)|Charles Murray]].<ref name="Human Accomplishment">{{cite book
 | last = Murray
 | first = Charles
 | title = Human Accomplishment: The Pursuit of Excellence in the Arts and Sciences 800 B.C to 1950
 | orig-year = 2003
 | publisher = HarperCollins
 | isbn = 978-0-06-019247-1
 | year = 2003
 | url-access = registration
 | url = https://archive.org/details/humanaccomplishm00murr
 }}</ref>

Historiometry is defined by Dean Keith Simonton as: a quantitative method of statistical analysis for [[retrospective]] data. In Simonton's work the [[raw data]] comes from [[psychometric]] assessment of famous personalities, often already deceased, in an attempt to assess [[creativity]], [[genius]] and [[talent development]].<ref>{{cite book
 | last = Simonton
 | first = Dean Keith
 | title = Genius Creativity and Leadership: Historiometric Inquiries
 | orig-year = 1999
 | publisher = iUniverse.com
 | isbn = 978-1-58348-438-8
 | year = 1999
 }}</ref>

Charles Murray's ''[[Human Accomplishment]]'' is one example of this approach to quantify the impact of individuals on [[technology]], science and the arts. This work tracks many famous innovators in these areas, and quantifies how much attention to them has been paid by past historians, in terms of the number of references and the number of pages of reference material devoted to each subject. However, this work has been criticized for manipulating its data to derive conclusions that would not follow from unmanipulated data.<ref>{{citation|title=Book Review: Human Accomplishment, by Charles Murray|journal=Tech Law Journal|date=November 20, 2003}}.</ref>

==Examples of research==
Since historiometry deals with subjective personal traits as [[creativity]], [[charisma]] or [[Five factor model#Openness to experience|openness]] most studies deal with the comparison of scientists, artists or politicians. The study (''[[Human Accomplishment]]'') by Charles Murray classifies, for example, [[Albert Einstein|Einstein]] and [[Isaac Newton|Newton]] as the most important [[physicist]]s and [[Michelangelo]] as the top ranking western artist.<ref name="Human Accomplishment"/> As another example, several studies have compared charisma and even the IQ of presidents and presidential candidates of the United States.<ref>{{cite journal
 |author       = Deluga, R.J.
 |year         = 1997
 |title        = Relationship among American presidential charismatic leadership, narcissism, and rated performance
 |journal      = Leadership Quarterly
 |volume       = 8
 |pages        = 49–65
 |doi          = 10.1016/S1048-9843(97)90030-8
 }}</ref><ref name="Presidential IQ">{{cite journal
 | author = Dean Keith Simonton
 |date= August 2006
 | title = Presidential IQ, Openness, Intellectual Brilliance, and Leadership: Estimates and Correlations for 42 U.S. Chief Executives
 | journal = Political Psychology
 | volume = 27
 | pages = 511–526
 | doi = 10.1111/j.1467-9221.2006.00524.x
 | issue = 4
 |s2cid= 6540294
 }}</ref> The latter study classifies [[John Quincy Adams]] as the most clever US president, with an estimated IQ between 165 and 175.<ref name="Times"/>
A historiometric analysis has also been applied successfully in the field of [[musicology]]. In one groundbreaking study,<ref>{{cite journal
 | last1 = Kopiez
 | first1 = Reinhard
 | last2 = Lehmann
 | first2 = Andreas C. 
 | last3 = Klassen
 | first3= Janina 
 | year = 2009
 | title = Clara Schumann's collection of playbills: A historiometric analysis of life-span development, mobility, and repertoire canonization
 | journal = Poetics
 | volume = 37
 | pages = 50–73
 | doi = 10.1016/j.poetic.2008.09.001
 | issue = 1
}}</ref> researchers analyzed statistically a collection of over 1,300 printed program leaflets (playbills) of concerts given by [[Clara Schumann]] (1819–1896) throughout her lifetime. The resulting analysis revealed Clara Schumann's influential role in the canonization of classical piano music repertoire. Her strategy of repertoire selection was guided by extremely traditionalistic tendencies.

==Critique==
Since historiometry is based on indirect information like historic documents and relies heavily on statistics, the results of these studies are questioned by some researchers, mainly because of concerns about ''over-interpretation'' of the estimated results.<ref>{{Cite book
| url = http://eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/Home.portal?_nfpb=true&ERICExtSearch_SearchValue_0=ED451235&ERICExtSearch_SearchType_0=no&_pageLabel=RecordDetails&objectId=0900000b8013877a&accno=ED451235
| title = Historiometrics of Creativity: A Philosophical Critique.
| access-date = 2006-09-13
| last = Bastick
| first = Tony
| year = 1999
| publisher = Education Resources Information Center
}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal
 | author = Mackenzie, B.
 | date =  January 1, 1986 | title = Genius, creativity, and leadership. Historiometric inquiries
 | journal = Med. Hist.
 | volume = 30
 | pages = 109–110
 | issue = 1
| pmc=1139602
 | doi=10.1017/s0025727300045245}}</ref>

The previously mentioned study of the intellectual capacity of US presidents, a study by '' [[Dean Simonton|Dean Keith Simonton]]'', attracted a lot of media attention and critique mainly because it classified the former US president, [[George W. Bush]], as second to last of all US presidents since 1900.<ref name="Times">{{cite web
| url = http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2350564,00.html
| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20080725161114/http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2350564,00.html
| url-status = dead
| archive-date = July 25, 2008
| title = Bush IQ low on presidential league
| access-date = 2006-09-10
| last = Dobson
| first = Roger
| date = 2006-09-10
| publisher = Times Online
 | location=London}}</ref><ref>{{cite news
|url = http://hnn.us/roundup/entries/28085.html
|publisher = History News Network
|title = Rating American presidents' IQ's
|date = July 13, 2006
|access-date = 2007-03-12}}</ref> The IQ of G.W. Bush was estimated as between 111.1 and 138.5, with an average of 125,<ref name="Presidential IQ"/> exceeding only that of president [[Warren Harding]], who is regarded as a failed president,<ref name="Times"/> with an average IQ of 124. Although controversial and imprecise (due to gaps in available data), the approach used by Simonton to generate his results was regarded "reasonable" by fellow researchers.<ref>{{cite journal
|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/content/vol313/issue5786/r-samples.dtl
|journal=Science
|volume=313
|issue=5786
|date=July 28, 2006
|title=Presidential Smarts
|author=Editorial
|doi=10.1126/science.313.5786.419c
|page=419
|s2cid=220092356
|access-date=2007-03-12}}</ref>
In the media, the study was sometimes compared with the ''[[U.S. Presidents IQ hoax]]'', a [[hoax]] that circulated via email in mid-2001, which suggested that G.W. Bush had the lowest IQ of all US presidents.<ref>{{cite web
| url = http://www.snopes.com/inboxer/hoaxes/presiq.htm
| title = President Bush Has Lowest IQ of all Presidents of past 50 Years
| access-date = 2006-09-11
| date = 2004-07-15
| publisher = snopes.com
}}</ref>

==See also==
*[[Catharine Cox]]
*[[Cliometrics]]
*[[Psychometrics]]
*[[Quantitative history]]
*[[Quantitative psychology]]

==References==
{{Reflist|30em}}

==External links==
*[http://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53184&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found History and Mathematics]
{{Historiography}}
[[Category:Historiometry]]
[[Category:Statistical data types]]
[[Category:Psychometrics]]