Editing Plague of Justinian

{{Short description|541–549 AD in the Byzantine Empire, later northern Europe}}
{{About|the first episode of the First Plague Pandemic, 541{{endash}}549|the series of plague pandemics, 541{{endash}}767|First plague pandemic}}
{{Infobox pandemic
| name            = Plague of Justinian
| image           = Plaguet03.jpg
| alt             = see caption
| caption         = [[Saint Sebastian]] pleads with Jesus for the life of a gravedigger afflicted during the plague of Justinian. ([[Josse Lieferinxe]], {{circa}} 1497–1499)
| map1            = 
| legend1         = 
| disease         = [[Bubonic plague]]
| location        = Mediterranean basin, Europe, Near East
| date            = 541–549
| deaths          =  
| territories     = 
}}
[[File:Hand necrosis caused by plague.jpg|thumb|A characteristic of ''Yersinia pestis'' infection is [[necrosis]] of the hand. (photo from 1975 plague victim)]]
[[File:Byzantium550.png|thumb|A map of the [[Byzantine Empire]] in 550 (a decade after the Plague of Justinian) with Justinian's conquests shown in green]]

The '''plague of Justinian''' or '''Justinianic plague''' (AD 541–549) was an [[epidemic]] of [[Plague (disease)|plague]] that afflicted the entire [[Mediterranean basin|Mediterranean Basin]], Europe, and the [[Near East]], especially the [[Sasanian Empire]] and the [[Byzantine Empire]].<ref name="Stathakopoulos">{{Citation|last=Stathakopoulos|first=Dionysios|title=Plague, Justinianic (Early Medieval Pandemic) |url=https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780198662778.001.0001/acref-9780198662778-e-3757|work=The Oxford Dictionary of Late Antiquity|year=2018|publisher=Oxford University Press |doi= 10.1093/acref/9780198662778.001.0001|isbn=978-0-19-866277-8 |access-date=2020-05-16}}</ref><ref name="Arrizabalaga">{{Citation |last=Arrizabalaga|first=Jon|title=plague and epidemics |url=https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780198662624.001.0001/acref-9780198662624-e-4645|work=The Oxford Dictionary of the Middle Ages|year=2010|editor-last=Bjork|editor-first=Robert E.|publisher=Oxford University Press |doi=10.1093/acref/9780198662624.001.0001|isbn=978-0-19-866262-4|access-date=2020-05-16|url-access=subscription}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last1=Floor |first1=Willem |title=Studies in the History of Medicine in Iran |date=2018 |publisher=Mazda Publishers |location=Costa Mesa, California|isbn=978-1933823942 |page=3 |quote=The Justinian plague (bubonic plague) also attacked the Sasanian lands.}}</ref> The plague is named for the Byzantine Emperor [[Justinian I]] (r. 527–565) who, according to his [[Court (royal)|court]] historian [[Procopius]], contracted the disease and recovered in 542, at the height of the epidemic which killed about a fifth of the population in the imperial capital [[Constantinople|Constantinople]].<ref name="Stathakopoulos" /><ref name="Arrizabalaga" /> The contagion arrived in [[Roman Egypt]] in 541, spread around the Mediterranean Sea until 544, and persisted in [[Northern Europe]] and the [[Arabian Peninsula]] until 549. By 543, the plague had spread to every corner of the empire.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Meier |first1=Mischa |title=The Justianic Plague: The economic consequences of the pandemic in the Eastern Roman empire and its cultural and religious effects |date=August 2016 |journal=Early Medieval Europe |volume=24 |issue=3 |pages=267–292 |doi=10.1111/emed.12152|s2cid=163966072 }}</ref><ref name="Stathakopoulos" /> 

The plague's severity and impact remain debated. Some scholars assert that as the first episode of the [[first plague pandemic]], it had profound economic, social, and political effects across Europe and the Near East and cultural and religious impact on Eastern Roman society.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Gârdan |first1=Gabriel-Viorel |year=2020 |title="The Justinianic Plague": The Effects of a Pandemic in Late Antiquity and the Early Middle Ages. |url=https://web.s.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=23275707&AN=147708871&h=dHmlCVn8um6Fb8ouoGm4tCfGTAYzQiMrWCf%2BmJfrbUdVvotWc9LR%2BT9MDkHJrxj1cCqP6RuF0qy7%2FI9DxirX4Q%3D%3D&crl=c&resultNs=AdminWebAuth&resultLocal=ErrCrlNotAuth&crlhashurl=login.aspx%3Fdirect%3Dtrue%26profile%3Dehost%26scope%3Dsite%26authtype%3Dcrawler%26jrnl%3D23275707%26AN%3D147708871 |journal=Romanian Journal of Artistic Creativity |volume=8 |issue=4 |pages=3–18 |access-date=26 January 2023}}</ref> Others reject the cataclysmic view, arguing for a limited impact.

In 2013, researchers confirmed earlier speculation that the cause of the plague of Justinian was ''[[Yersinia pestis]]'', the same bacterium responsible for the [[Black Death]] (1346–1353).<ref>{{cite web|title=Modern lab reaches across the ages to resolve plague DNA debate|url=http://phys.org/news/2013-05-modern-lab-ages-plague-dna.html|date=May 20, 2013|website=phys.org}}
*{{cite web|title=Plague DNA found in ancient teeth shows medieval Black Death, 1,500-year pandemic caused by same disease|url=http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/01/28/plague-dna-found-in-ancient-teeth-shows-medieval-black-death-1500-year-pandemic-caused-by-same-disease/|author=Maria Cheng|date=January 28, 2014|work=[[National Post]]}}</ref> Ancient and modern ''Yersinia pestis'' [[Strain (biology)|strains]] are closely related to the ancestor of the Justinian plague strain that has been found in the [[Tian Shan]], a system of mountain ranges on the borders of [[Kyrgyzstan]], [[Kazakhstan]], and [[China]], suggesting that the Justinian plague originated in or near that region.<ref name="Eroshenko">{{cite journal|last1=Eroshenko|first1=Galina A.|display-authors=etal|date=October 26, 2017|title=''Yersinia pestis'' strains of ancient phylogenetic branch 0.ANT are widely spread in the high-mountain plague foci of Kyrgyzstan |journal=PLOS ONE |volume=12 |issue=10 |pages=e0187230 |bibcode=2017PLoSO..1287230E |doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0187230 |pmc=5658180 |pmid=29073248 |doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="Damgaard">{{cite journal |last1=Damgaard |first1=Peter de B. |display-authors=etal |date=May 9, 2018 |title=137 ancient human genomes from across the Eurasian steppes |journal=Nature |volume=557 |issue=7705 |pages=369–374 |pmid=29743675 |bibcode=2018Natur.557..369D |doi=10.1038/s41586-018-0094-2 |hdl=1887/3202709 |s2cid=13670282 |hdl-access=free}}</ref> However, there would appear to be no mention of bubonic plague in China until the year 610.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Sarris |first1=Peter |title=The Justinianic plague: origins and effects |date=August 2002 |journal=Continuity and Change |page=171 |volume=17 |issue=2 |doi=10.1017/S0268416002004137 |s2cid=144954310 |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/F48D7B45421836E3F25613CF68EE6F30/S0268416002004137a.pdf/the-justinianic-plague-origins-and-effects.pdf |access-date=7 December 2023}}</ref>

== History ==
[[File:The imposing basilica next to the Forum and its gagantic pillars, also known as Basilica B, Philippi (7272621716).jpg |thumb|Incomplete [[basilica]] in [[Philippi]]; its construction is believed to have been halted by the plague of Justinian.]]

The Byzantine historian [[Procopius]] first reported the epidemic in 541 from the port of [[Pelusium]], near [[Suez]] in Egypt.<ref name="Wade" /> Two other first-hand reports of the plague's ravages were by the [[Syriac Christians|Syriac]] church historian [[John of Ephesus]]<ref>John of Ephesus, Ecclesiastical History, part 2. Translation of relevant portions [http://www.roger-pearse.com/weblog/2017/05/10/john-of-ephesus-describes-the-justinianic-plague/ here].</ref> and by [[Evagrius Scholasticus]], who was a child in [[Antioch]] at the time and later became a church historian. Evagrius was afflicted with the [[buboes]] associated with the disease, but survived. During the disease's four returns in his lifetime, he lost his wife, a daughter and her child, other children, most of his servants, and people from his country estate.<ref>Evagrius, ''Historia Ecclesiae'', IV.29.</ref>

According to contemporary sources, the outbreak in [[Constantinople]] was thought to have been carried to the city by infected rats on grain ships arriving from Egypt.<ref name="Wade">{{cite news |first=Nicholas|last=Wade |title=Europe's Plagues Came From China, Study Finds |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/01/health/01plague.html |work=[[The New York Times]] |location=New York City|date=October 31, 2010 |access-date=November 1, 2010|author-link=Nicholas Wade }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Eiland |first=Murray |date=2022 |others=Interview with Johannes Preiser-Kapeller |title=Networks of Rome, Byzantium, and China |url=https://www.academia.edu/88994886 |journal=Antiqvvs |volume=4 |issue=1 |pages=44}}</ref> To feed its citizens, the city and outlying communities imported large amounts of grain, mostly from Egypt. The rat population in Egypt thrived on feeding from the large [[Granary|granaries]] maintained by the government, and fleas thrived as well.{{citation needed|date=December 2020}}

Procopius, in a passage closely modelled on [[Thucydides]], recorded that at its peak the plague was killing 10,000 people in Constantinople daily,<ref>Procopius, ''Persian War'' II.22–23.</ref> but the accuracy of the figure is in question, and the true number will probably never be known. He noted that because there was no room to bury the dead, bodies were left stacked in the open, funeral rites were often left unattended to, and the entire city smelled like the dead.<ref>Procopius: The Plague, 542</ref> Given such circumstances, it is highly probable that a sudden increase in mortality rates may not have been as accurately recorded, hence why the overall death toll is based on an estimate.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Sarris |first1=Peter |title=The Justinianic plague: origins and effects |journal=Continuity and Change |date=August 2002 |volume=17 |issue=2 |page=174 |doi=10.1017/S0268416002004137 |s2cid=144954310 |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/F48D7B45421836E3F25613CF68EE6F30/S0268416002004137a.pdf/the-justinianic-plague-origins-and-effects.pdf |access-date=8 December 2023}}</ref>

In Procopius' ''[[Procopius#Secret History|Secret History]],'' he records the devastation in the countryside and reports the ruthless response by the hard-pressed Justinian:

<blockquote>When pestilence swept through the whole known world and notably the Roman Empire, wiping out most of the farming community and of necessity leaving a trail of desolation in its wake, Justinian showed no mercy towards the ruined freeholders. Even then, he did not refrain from demanding the annual tax, not only the amount at which he assessed each individual, but also the amount for which his deceased neighbors were liable.<ref>Procopius, ''Anekdota'', 23.20f.</ref> </blockquote>

As a result of the plague in the countryside, farmers could not take care of crops and the price of grain rose in Constantinople. Justinian had expended huge amounts of money for wars against the [[Vandals]] in the region of [[Carthage]] and against the [[Ostrogoths]]' [[Ostrogothic Kingdom|kingdom in Italy]]. He had invested heavily in the construction of great churches, such as [[Hagia Sophia]]. As the empire tried to fund the projects, the plague caused tax revenues to decline through the massive number of deaths and the disruption of agriculture and trade. Justinian swiftly enacted new legislation to deal more efficiently with the glut of inheritance suits being brought as a result of victims dying [[intestate]].<ref>Justinian, Edict IX.3; J. Moorhead 1994; Averil Cameron, ''The Mediterranean World in Late Antiquity, AD 395–600'', 1993:111.</ref>

The plague's long-term effects on European and [[History of Christianity|Christian]] history were enormous. As the disease spread to port cities around the Mediterranean, the struggling [[Goths]] were reinvigorated and [[Gothic War (535–554)|their conflict with Constantinople]] entered a new phase. The plague weakened the Byzantine Empire at a critical point, when Justinian's armies had nearly retaken all of Italy and the western Mediterranean coast; the evolving conquest would have reunited the core of the [[Western Roman Empire]] with the [[Eastern Roman Empire]]. Although the conquest occurred in 554, the reunification did not last long. In 568, the [[Lombards]] invaded [[Northern Italy]], defeated the small Byzantine army that had been left behind and established the [[Kingdom of the Lombards]].<ref name="Wade"/><ref>{{cite book|first=William|last=Rosen|url=http://www.justiniansflea.com/events.htm|title=Justinian's Flea: Plague, Empire, and the Birth of Europe|publisher=[[Viking Press|Viking Adult]]|location=New York City|date=2007|pages=321–322|isbn=978-0-670-03855-8}}</ref>

[[Gaul]] is known to have suffered severely from the plague,<ref>{{cite book |first=T. M.|last=Charles-Edwards |author-link=Thomas Charles-Edwards|title=Wales and the Britons 350–1064|publisher=Oxford University Press |location=Oxford, UK |year=2013|isbn=978-0-19-821731-2|page=216}}</ref> and plague victims at an early Anglo-Saxon burial site at Edix Hill near [[Cambridge]] show that it also reached Britain.<ref name="Sarris"/>

Procopius said that plague sufferers experienced delusions, nightmares, fevers, swellings in the groin, armpits and behind the ears, and coma or death.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Horgan |first=John |title=Justinian's Plague (541-542 CE) |url=https://www.worldhistory.org/article/782/justinians-plague-541-542-ce/ |access-date=2024-09-27 |website=World History Encyclopedia |language=en}}</ref> Treatments included cold baths, powders "blessed" by saints, magic [[amulet]]s or rings, and various drugs, especially [[alkaloid]]s.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2014-01-31 |title=Two of History's Deadliest Plagues Were Linked, With Implications for Another Outbreak |url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/140129-justinian-plague-black-death-bacteria-bubonic-pandemic#:~:text=The%20Justinian%20plague%20struck%20in,Africa,%20Arabia,%20and%20Europe. |access-date=2024-09-27 |website=Animals |language=en}}</ref> When these treatments failed, people went to hospitals or tried to [[quarantine]] themselves.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2020-06-12 |title=The Justinianic Plague {{!}} Origins |url=https://origins.osu.edu/connecting-history/covid-justinianic-plague-lessons |access-date=2024-09-27 |website=origins.osu.edu |language=en}}</ref>

===Onset of the first plague pandemic===
{{Main|First plague pandemic}}
The Plague of Justinian is the first and the best known outbreak of the first plague pandemic, which continued to recur until the middle of the 8th century.<ref name="Stathakopoulos"/><ref>{{Cite journal |date=December 2020 |title=The Justinianic Plague and Global Pandemics: The Making of the Plague Concept |journal=The American Historical Review |doi=10.1093/ahr/rhaa510 |last1=Eisenberg |first1=Merle |last2=Mordechai |first2=Lee |volume=125|issue=5|pages=1632–1667}}</ref> Some historians believe the first plague pandemic was one of the [[List of epidemics|deadliest pandemics in history]], resulting in the deaths of an estimated 15 to 100 million people during two centuries of recurrence, a death toll equivalent to 25 to 60% of Europe's population at the time of the first outbreak.<ref name="Mordechai 2019-12-17">{{Cite journal |last1=Mordechai |first1=Lee |last2=Eisenberg |first2=Merle |last3=Newfield |first3=Timothy P. |last4=Izdebski |first4=Adam |last5=Kay |first5=Janet E. |last6=Poinar |first6=Hendrik |date=2019-12-17 |title=The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic? |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |language=en |volume=116 |issue=51 |pages=25546–25554 |doi=10.1073/pnas.1903797116 |issn=0027-8424 |pmid=31792176 |pmc=6926030 |bibcode=2019PNAS..11625546M |doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Maugh |first1=Thomas |title=An Empire's Epidemic |url=https://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/bioter/anempiresepidemic.html |website=www.ph.ucla.edu |access-date=20 March 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last=Rosen |first=William |year=2007 |url=http://www.justiniansflea.com/events.htm |title=Justinian's Flea: Plague, Empire, and the Birth of Europe |publisher=[[Viking Press|Viking Adult]] | location=New York City|page=3 |isbn=978-0-670-03855-8}}</ref> Research published in 2019 argued that the 200-year-long pandemic's death toll and social effects have been exaggerated, comparing it to the modern [[third plague pandemic]] (1855–1960s).<ref name="Mordechai 2019-12-17"/><ref name="Mordechai 2019-08-01"/> Furthermore, some historians argue that the eyewitness accounts of the disease are hysterical in tone and therefore misleading.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Sarris |first1=Peter |title=The Justinianic plague: origins and effects |journal=Continuity and Change |date=August 2002 |volume=17 |issue=2 |page=173 |doi=10.1017/S0268416002004137 |s2cid=144954310 |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/F48D7B45421836E3F25613CF68EE6F30/S0268416002004137a.pdf/the-justinianic-plague-origins-and-effects.pdf |access-date=2023-12-08}}</ref>

== Epidemiology ==

=== Genetics of the Justinian plague strain ===
The plague of Justinian is generally regarded as the first historically recorded epidemic of ''[[Yersinia pestis]]''.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Russell|first=Josiah C.|year=1968|title=That earlier plague|journal=[[Demography (journal)|Demography]]|location=Ashburn, Virginia|publisher=[[Springer (publisher)|Springer]]|volume=5|pages=174–184|doi=10.1007/bf03208570|s2cid=46979303|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite encyclopedia|title=Justinian's Plague (541-542 CE)|encyclopedia=[[World History Encyclopedia]] |url=https://www.worldhistory.org/article/782/justinians-plague-541-542-ce/}}</ref> This conclusion is based on historical descriptions of the clinical manifestations of the disease<ref>Procopius, History of the Wars, 7 Vols., trans. H. B. Dewing, Loeb Library of the Greek and Roman Classics, (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1914), Vol. I, pp. 451–473.</ref> and the detection of ''Y. pestis'' [[DNA]] from human remains at ancient grave sites dated to that period.<ref>Wiechmann I, Grupe G. Detection of Yersinia pestis DNA in two early medieval skeletal finds from Aschheim (Upper Bavaria, 6th century A.D.)" ''Am J Phys Anthropol'' 2005 Jan;126(1) 48–55</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Harbeck |first1=Michaela |last2=Seifert |first2=Lisa |last3=Hänsch |first3=Stephanie |last4=Wagner |first4=David M. |last5=Birdsell |first5=Dawn |last6=Parise |first6=Katy L. |last7=Wiechmann |first7=Ingrid |last8=Grupe |first8=Gisela |last9=Thomas |first9=Astrid |last10=Keim |first10=P |last11=Zöller |first11=L |year=2013 |editor1-last=Besansky |editor1-first=Nora J |editor-link=Nora J. Besansky |title=''Yersinia pestis'' DNA from Skeletal Remains from the 6th Century AD Reveals Insights into Justinianic Plague |journal=PLOS Pathogens |volume=9 |issue=5 |pages=e1003349 |doi=10.1371/journal.ppat.1003349 |pmc=3642051 |pmid=23658525 |last12=Bramanti |first12=B |last13=Riehm |first13=JM |last14=Scholz |first14=HC |doi-access=free}}</ref>

Genetic studies of modern and ancient ''Yersinia pestis'' DNA suggest that the origin of the Justinian plague was in [[Central Asia]]. The most [[Basal (phylogenetics)|basal]], or root level, existing strains of the ''Yersinia pestis'' as a whole species are found in [[Qinghai]], China.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Morelli|first1=Giovanna|display-authors=etal|date=October 31, 2010|title=''Yersinia pestis'' genome sequencing identifies patterns of global phylogenetic diversity|journal=Nature Genetics|volume=42|issue=12|pages=1140–1143|doi=10.1038/ng.705|pmc=2999892|pmid=21037571}}</ref> Other scholars contest that, rather than Central Asia, the specific strain that composed the Justinian plague began in sub-Saharan Africa, and that the plague was spread to the Mediterranean by merchants from the [[Kingdom of Aksum]] in [[East Africa]]. This point of origin aligns more with the general south–north spread of the disease from Egypt into the rest of the Mediterranean world. It also explains why [[Sasanian Empire|Sassanid]] Persia saw a later development of the outbreak despite stronger trade links with Central Asia.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Yohannes |first=Gebre Selassie |year=2011 |title=Plague as a Possible Factor for the Decline and Collapse of the Aksumite Empire: a New Interpretation |publisher=Mekelle University |location=Tigray, Ethiopia |journal=Ityopis: Northeast African Journal of Social Sciences |volume=1 |pages=36-61 |url=http://www.ityopis.org/Issues-1_files/ITYOPIS-I-Gebre-Selassi.pdf}}</ref><ref>{{citation |author=Peter Sarris |chapter=Bubonic Plague in Byzantium: The Evidence of Non-Literary Sources |title=Plague and the End of Antiquity: The Pandemic of 541–750 |editor=Lester K. Little |publisher=Cambridge University Press |year=2007 |pages=119–132, at 121–123}}</ref><ref>{{citation |author=Michael McCormick |chapter=Toward a Molecular History of the Justinianic Pandemic |title=Plague and the End of Antiquity: The Pandemic of 541–750 |editor=Lester K. Little |publisher=Cambridge University Press |year=2007 |pages=290–312}}, at 303–304.</ref><ref>{{cite journal |title=The Justinianic plague: origins and effects |first1=Peter |last1=Sarris |journal=Continuity and Change |date=August 2002 |volume=17 |issue=2 |page=173 |doi=10.1017/S0268416002004137 |s2cid=144954310 |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/F48D7B45421836E3F25613CF68EE6F30/S0268416002004137a.pdf/the-justinianic-plague-origins-and-effects.pdf |access-date=2023-12-08}}</ref> After samples of DNA from ''Yersinia pestis'' were isolated from skeletons of Justinian plague victims in Germany,<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Wagner|first1=David M.|display-authors=etal|date=April 2014|title=''Yersinia pestis'' and the Plague of Justinian 541–543 AD: a genomic analysis|journal=The Lancet|volume=14|issue=4|pages=319–326|doi=10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70323-2|pmid=24480148}}</ref> it was found that modern strains currently found in the [[Tian Shan]] mountain range system are most basal known in comparison with the Justinian plague strain.<ref name="Eroshenko" /> Additionally, a skeleton found in Tian Shan dating to around 180 AD and identified as an "early Hun" was found to contain DNA from ''Yersinia pestis'' closely related to the Tian Shan strain basal ancestor of the Justinian plague strain German samples.<ref name="Damgaard" /> This finding suggests that the expansion of nomadic peoples who moved across the [[Eurasian steppe]], such as the [[Xiongnu]] and the later [[Huns]], had a role in spreading plague to West Eurasia from an origin in Central Asia.<ref name="Damgaard" />

Earlier samples of ''Yersinia pestis'' DNA have been found in skeletons dating from 3000 to 800 BC, across West and East Eurasia.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Rasmussen |first1=Simon |display-authors=etal |date=October 22, 2015 |title=Early Divergent Strains of Yersinia pestis in Eurasia 5,000 Years Ago |journal=Cell |volume=163 |issue=3 |pages=571–582 |doi=10.1016/j.cell.2015.10.009 |pmc=4644222 |pmid=26496604}}</ref> The strain of ''Yersinia pestis'' responsible for the [[Black Death]], the devastating pandemic of [[bubonic plague]], does not appear to be a direct descendant of the Justinian plague strain. However, the spread of Justinian plague may have caused the [[evolutionary radiation]] that gave rise to the currently extant 0ANT.1 [[clade]] of strains.<ref>{{cite news |last=McGrath |first=Matt |date=12 October 2011 |title=Black Death Genetic Code 'Built' |publisher=[[BBC World Service]] |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-15278366 |access-date=12 October 2011}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bos |first1=Kirsten |last2=Schuenemann |first2=Verena J. |last3=Golding |first3=G. Brian |last4=Burbano |first4=Hernán A. |last5=Waglechner |first5=Nicholas |last6=Coombes |first6=Brian K. |last7=McPhee |first7=Joseph B. |last8=Dewitte |first8=Sharon N. |last9=Meyer |first9=Matthias |last10=Schmedes |first10=Sarah |last11=Wood |first11=James |date=12 October 2011 |title=A draft genome of ''Yersinia pestis'' from victims of the Black Death |journal=Nature|volume=478|issue=7370|pages=506–510 |bibcode=2011Natur.478..506B |doi=10.1038/nature10549 |pmc=3690193 |pmid=21993626 |last12=Earn |first12=David J. D. |first13=D. Ann |last14=Bauer |first14=Peter |last15=Poinar |first15=Hendrik N. |last16=Krause |first16=Johannes |last13=Herring}}</ref>

=== Virulence and mortality rate ===
The mortality rate is uncertain and remains heavily debated. Some modern scholars believe that the plague killed up to 5,000 people per day in Constantinople at the peak of the pandemic.<ref name="Mordechai 2019-08-01">{{Cite journal |last1=Mordechai |first1=Lee |last2=Eisenberg |first2=Merle |date=August 1, 2019 |title=Rejecting Catastrophe: The Case of the Justinianic Plague |journal=[[Past & Present (journal)|Past & Present]] |publisher=[[Oxford University Press]] |location=Oxfordshire, England |language=en |issue=244 |page=46 |doi=10.1093/pastj/gtz009 |issn=0031-2746}}</ref> According to one view, the initial plague ultimately killed perhaps 40% of the city's inhabitants and caused the deaths of up to a quarter of the human population of the [[Eastern Mediterranean]].<ref>{{cite book |author=Cyril A. Mango |title=Byzantium: The Empire of New Rome |year=1980}} emphasizes the demographic effects; {{cite journal |author=Mark Whittow |title=Ruling the late Roman and Byzantine city |journal=Past and Present |issue=33 |date=1990}} argues against too great reliance on literary sources.</ref> Frequent subsequent waves of the plague continued to strike throughout the 6th, 7th and 8th centuries, with the disease becoming more localized and less virulent.{{citation needed|date=December 2020}}

Revisionist views suggest that the mortality of the Justinian Plague was far lower than previously believed. Lee Mordechai and Merle Eisenberg argue that the plague might have caused high mortality in specific places, but it did not cause widespread demographic decline or decimate Mediterranean populations. Therefore, any direct mid-to-long term effects of plague were minor.<ref name="Mordechai 2019-08-01" /> However, [[Peter Sarris]] criticizes their methodology and source handling, and provides a discussion of the genetic evidence, including the suggestion that the plague may have entered Western Eurasia via more than one route, and perhaps struck England before Constantinople.<ref name="Sarris">{{cite journal |journal=[[Past & Present (journal)|Past & Present]] |publisher=[[Oxford University Press]] |last=Sarris |first=Peter |date=November 13, 2021 |title=Viewpoint New Approaches to the 'Plague of Justinian' |issue=254 |pages=315–346 |doi=10.1093/pastj/gtab024 |doi-access=free}}</ref> On the other hand, Haggai Olshanetsky and Lev Cosijns reassert the view that the plague had a limited impact, as various archaeological evidence indicates there was no demographic or economic decline in the 6th century Eastern Mediterranean.<ref>{{cite journal|journal=Klio|year=2024|title=Challenging the Significance of the LALIA and the Justinianic Plague: A Reanalysis of the Archaeological Record|last1= Olshanetsky|first1=Haggai|last2=Cosijns|first2=Lev|pp=721–759|doi=10.1515/klio-2023-0031|volume=106|issue=2|url=https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/klio-2023-0031/html|doi-access=free}}</ref>

== Climate connections ==
{{main|Volcanic winter of 536|Late Antique Little Ice Age}}
According to 2024 research, major plagues that significantly impacted the [[Roman Empire]], such as the [[Antonine Plague]], the [[Plague of Cyprian]], and the Plague of Justinian, are strongly linked to periods of cooler and drier climate conditions, indicating that colder weather may have contributed to the spread of these diseases during that time. It is thought that climate stress interacted with social and biological variables, such as food availability, rodent populations, and human migration, making populations more susceptible to disease.<ref>{{cite web |last=Mayer |first=Amy |title=Roman Plagues Struck During Cool, Dry Periods  |work=[[Eos (magazine)|Eos]] |date=28 February 2024 |access-date=2024-10-28 |url=https://eos.org/articles/roman-plagues-struck-during-cool-dry-periods}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Zonneveld |first1=Karin |title=Climate change, society, and pandemic disease in Roman Italy between 200 BCE and 600 CE |journal=[[Science Advances]] |date=2024 |volume=10 |number=1033 |doi=10.1126/sciadv.adk1033 |pmc=10816712 }}</ref>

== See also ==
{{Columns-list|colwidth=30em|
* [[List of epidemics]]
* [[Medieval demography]]
* [[Plague of Amwas]]
* The [[volcanic winter of 536]]
}}

== Notes ==
{{reflist|30em}}

== Sources ==
* {{cite book|first=T. M.|last=Charles-Edwards|author-link=Thomas Charles-Edwards|title=Wales and the Britons 350–1064|publisher=Oxford University Press|location=Oxford, UK|year=2013|isbn=978-0-19-821731-2}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Harbeck |first1=M |last2=Seifert |first2=L |last3=Hänsch |first3=S |last4=Wagner |first4=DM |last5=Birdsell |first5=D |display-authors=etal |year=2013 |title=''Yersinia pestis'' DNA from Skeletal Remains from the 6th Century AD Reveals Insights into Justinianic Plague |journal=PLOS Pathog |volume=9 |issue=5 |page=e1003349 |doi=10.1371/journal.ppat.1003349 |pmid=23658525 |pmc=3642051 |doi-access=free }}
* {{cite book |editor-last=Little |editor-first=Lester K. |title=Plague and the End of Antiquity: The Pandemic of 541–750 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |year=2006 |isbn=978-0-521-84639-4 }}
* {{cite book |last=Moorhead |first=J. |title=Justinian |year=1994 }}
* [https://academic.oup.com/past/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/pastj/gtz009/5532056?redirectedFrom=fulltext Mordechai, Lee, and Merle Eisenberg. 2019. "Rejecting Catastrophe: the case of the Justinianic Plague." ''Past & Present'']
* Mordechai, L; Eisenberg M; Newfield T; Izdebski A; Kay Janet; Poinar H. (2019).  "The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?", PNAS https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903797116.
* [[Procopius]]. ''History of the Wars, Books I and II (The Persian War)''. Trans. [[H. B. Dewing]]. Vol. 1. Cambridge: Loeb-Harvard UP, 1954.—Chapters XXII and XXIII of Book II (pages 451–473) are Procopius's famous description of the Plague of Justinian. This includes the famous statistic of 10,000 people per day dying in Constantinople (page 465).

== Further reading ==
* {{cite journal |last1=Drancourt |first1=M |last2=Roux |first2=V |last3=Dang |first3=LV |last4=Tran-Hung |first4=L |last5=Castex |first5=D |last6=Chenal-Francisque |first6=V |display-authors=etal |title=Genotyping, Orientalis-like ''Yersinia pestis'', and plague pandemics |journal=Emerging Infectious Diseases |volume=10 |issue=9 |pages=1585–1592 | doi = 10.3201/eid1009.030933|pmid=15498160 |pmc=3320270 |year=2004 }}
* Eisenberg, Merle, and Lee Mordechai. "The Justinianic Plague and Global Pandemics: The Making of the Plague Concept." ''American Historical Review'' 125.5 (2020): 1632–1667.
* {{cite book |last=McNeill |first=William H. |author-link=William Hardy McNeill |title=Plagues and Peoples |publisher=Bantam Doubleday Dell |location=New York |year=1976 |isbn=978-0-385-12122-4 }}
* {{cite book |last=Orent |first=Wendy |title=Plague, The Mysterious Past and Terrifying Future of the World's Most Dangerous Disease |publisher=Simon & Schuster |location=New York |year=2004 |isbn=978-0-7432-3685-0 |url=https://archive.org/details/plaguemysterious00oren }}
* {{cite journal |last=Russell |first=J. C. |year=1958 |title=Late Ancient and Medieval Population |journal=Transactions of the American Philosophical Society |series=New Series |volume=48 |issue=3 |pages=71–99 |doi=10.2307/1005708 |jstor=1005708 }}
* {{cite journal|first=Peter |last=Sarris|date=13 November 2021|doi=10.1093/pastj/gtab024|title=New Approaches to the 'Plague of Justinian' |journal=Past & Present|doi-access=free}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Schindel |first1=Nikolaus |title=The Justinianic Plague and Sasanian Iran: the Numismatic Evidence |journal=Sasanian Studies: Late Antique Iranian World |date=2022 |volume=1 |issue=1 |pages=259–276 |doi=10.13173/SSt.1.259|s2cid=244880937 }}

{{Epidemics}}
{{Authority control}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Plague Of Justinian}}
[[Category:First plague pandemic]]
[[Category:Plague pandemics]]
[[Category:6th-century disasters]]
[[Category:Health disasters in Africa]]
[[Category:Health disasters in Asia]]
[[Category:Health disasters in Europe]]
[[Category:Byzantine medicine]]
[[Category:Medieval health disasters]]
[[Category:Justinian I]]
[[Category:541]]
[[Category:542]]
[[Category:540s in the Byzantine Empire]]
[[Category:Sasanian Empire]]
[[Category:1st-millennium health disasters]]
[[Category:Pelusium]]